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Blame Congress and Pork, Not NASA

Rory Cooper’s criticism of the space agency today is notable not so much for what it says, but for what it leaves out of the story. Beyond that, it gets several things factually wrong.

The Obama administration has been an ongoing policy disaster on almost every front, but space policy is one of the few things that it has gotten at least partially right. It is also one of the few areas in which it can legitimately say that it inherited a mess that it attempted to fix, in the face of resistance from the porkmeisters on the Hill. I would also note that while Cooper’s litany of criticism of many of General Bolden’s statements is justified, the fact remains that for all the talk about “Muslim outreach,” there is nothing in the budget for it, and most of the nonsense that comes out of the administrator’s mouth is politically correct lip service, and has nothing to do with what the agency is actually doing. That said, let’s review Mr. Cooper’s misstated and incomplete narrative:

President Obama’s NASA unveiled its new rocket system designed to lift man into space sometime after 2021 with no clear mission or objective.

This is just the latest in a long string of embarrassments for NASA since Administrator Charles Bolden and Deputy Administrator Lori Garver took over.

. . . Bolden introduced a manned-space-exploration plan that is bewildering and lacks credibility.

The new Space Launch System (SLS) replaces the former Constellation program. Constellation was a two-vehicle system designed to carry a crew atop an Ares I rocket and carry heavy-lift cargo in an Ares V rocket. SLS is also a two-vehicle system with a nearly identical heavy-lift rocket, and a redesigned crew vehicle that resembles the Ares IV first seen in 2007.

Since this system so closely resembles its predecessors, Constellation’s purpose apparently wasn’t as misguided as the president has implied for the past two-plus years,.

However, under Constellation, the first manned test flight was scheduled for 2015, with a crew mission later that year, a cargo flight by 2018, and a man back on the moon conducting experiments for later flights to Mars by 2019.

Under the new Obama SLS system, the first unmanned test flight is in 2017, the first manned test is in 2021, and a possible mission to an asteroid is scheduled for 2025. The “gap” of America’s ability to put man into space grew from four years under President Bush to ten years under President Obama.

Obama and Bolden added at least six years to both the manned flight and mission schedules in exchange for what? A possible asteroid as the first stop instead of the moon?

Mr. Cooper gets the basics wrong in his description of both Constellation and SLS. Constellation wasn’t just the Ares I crew rocket and Ares V (not Ares IV — it had to grow to a five-segment solid to meet its performance requirements) heavy-lift launcher — it also included the Orion crew module to be lifted by the Ares I, and an Earth departure stage and lunar lander, called Altair. It was all of the transportation elements deemed necessary by Bolden’s predecessor to get NASA back to the moon, but only the Ares I and Orion were under active development, because not only was there no budget available for the other elements while NASA was still operating the Shuttle and the International Space Station, but there weren’t even adequate funds to develop the ones that were being developed. Mr. Cooper doesn’t mention the results of the Augustine Panel in 2009, which concluded that Constellation was not affordable with any budget that NASA could realistically expect to get, and that the program was overrunning its budgets and its schedule was slipping more than a year per year, with first flight not to be reasonably expected before the end of this decade, during all of which time we would continue to be dependent on the Russians for access to space.

I don’t understand what Mr. Cooper means when he writes that “SLS is also a two-vehicle system with a nearly identical heavy-lift rocket, and a redesigned crew vehicle that resembles the Ares IV . . .” The Space Launch System (aka the “Senate Launch System”) announced last week does bear a resemblance to the Ares V (not Ares IV), but that’s a natural consequence of its design criteria, as I’ll get to in a moment (actually, it looks like a photoshopped Saturn V from the sixties with a couple modified Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters bolted to the sides). But the heavy lifter is not the crew vehicle. If by this he is referring to what is now called the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, the heavy lifter is greatly oversized for the mission of delivering a crew to orbit. Orion could go up on a Delta IV, and much sooner than the SLS will be ready to fly.

The reason that it has no clear mission or objective is that it was forced on the agency by the Congress a year ago, in the absence of any actual mission requirements, in the NASA authorization bill. Or rather, it has only one mission requirement, as I noted a few months ago:

. . . it’s the next requirement that’s the real one, as far as Congress is concerned:

(3) Transition needs.–The Administrator shall ensure critical skills and capabilities are retained, modified, and developed, as appropriate, in areas related to solid and liquid engines, large diameter fuel tanks, rocket propulsion, and other ground test capabilities for an effective transition to the follow-on Space Launch System. (4) The capacity for efficient and timely evolution, including the incorporation of new technologies, competition of sub-elements, and commercial operations.

All of this is code for “preserve the Shuttle infrastructure and all the jobs associated with it.” And the notion that this would ever be amenable to commercial operations, particularly in light of the fierce competition it will have from true cost-effective commercial operators, domestic and foreign, is ludicrous.

(Emphasis added.) The SLS is not an “admission” that Constellation was a good idea after all. It is simply the agency’s good-faith attempt to adhere to an awful law. If the proposal “lacks credibility,” it is because Congress has put the administrator in an impossible situation. It demands that he build a rocket to congressional specifications for which NASA has no defined need, or budget for payloads, and that he do it with inadequate funding, setting the agency up for failure just as Mike Griffin did with Constellation. And even if it ever does get developed, each mission with it will cost billions. It does nothing to make human spaceflight more affordable, which should be the most important goal if we are serious about it.

He goes on, implying that Congress is the solution, rather than the problem:

Rep. Bill Posey (R., Texas) said of the new SLS plan: “[T]here is still a lack of vision, and no clear mission.”

Then, earlier this month, Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R., Texas) and Bill Nelson (D., Fla.) accused Obama of attempting to “sabotage” his own program by “inflating cost estimates.” Days later, the cost numbers apparently added up when NASA lowered their estimates.

First, Bill Posey is a congressman from the Florida Space Coast, not Texas. Senators Hutchison (who is retiring next year) and Nelson (who is likely to be defeated next year) are the rocket scientists behind the design of the Senate Launch System. They insisted that NASA spend three billion on it and Orion just this year alone, making it in effect the biggest earmark in the budget for a business case that won’t close (think of it as “Shuttlyndra”). NASA didn’t “inflate the cost estimates” — they came up with an estimate to accelerate the schedule so it might have meaningful capability sometime in this decade. When Congress screamed about it, they went back to the more sedate one. Booz Allen Hamilton came out with an independent cost assessment that indicated NASA’s cost estimates in the out years were optimistic. But Senators Hutchison and Nelson (and Hatch and Shelby and others with pigs in the fight) insisted on a bipartisan basis that NASA move forward with their rocket to nowhere, because all they care about is jobs in their states this election cycle. And the rest of Congress doesn’t care at all, because space policy isn’t very important in the context of trillion-dollar deficits, a stagnant economy, and a meltdown of the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, the most near-term solution to eliminating our dependence on the Russians is to accelerate the Commercial Crew activities, for which the administration requested $850M for 2012. For a few billion (as opposed to the tens of billions that the SLS will cost), we could have multiple competitive commercial providers of access to and from the ISS and low-earth orbit within three years. These would include Boeing and the United Launch Alliance with their reliable Atlas and Delta rockets, and actually spawn a useful new industry with competition to drive down costs, enabling innovative and affordable means of serious space exploration in the next decade through which America could once again lead the world. But the House appropriated only about $300M for it, and while the Senate version of the bill appropriates $500M, it holds $200M of it hostage to progress on the SLS. Yesterday, the relevant House authorization committee had a show hearing featuring the first man and last man to walk on the moon, for no apparent purpose. All of which indicates that for all their noise about losing leadership and risks to our national security, the legislative branch continues to be profoundly unserious about our future in space.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   17

EXPAND  

Rory Cooper
   09/23/11 15:20

Rand, you raise some excellent points, and I appreciate your post. I certainly appreciate your technical analysis.

There is plenty of blame to go around, and Congress can certainly take some of it. But when NASA and Congress cannot come up with a reasonable plan or objective, it falls to President Obama to lead, and in this case he simply has not. So I do not agree that he has gotten space policy partially right. Congress should look beyond pork, yes, but they should also demand some long-term vision in the absence of one.

In a longer piece, I certainly would not let Griffin or Shana Dale off the hook either. I haven't in the past. Mistakes were made, at the budgeting and programming level perhaps, but also at building continuity between administrations so three years weren't wasted going back and forth on some of this.

When President Obama announced the end of VSE, he simultaneously requested a large budget increase for NASA as a whole. The priorities of the agency were shifting and taxpayers were being asked to spend more. The entire agency's budget needs to be analyzed, not just one project, and in that case, I think we would find appropriate money for a core mission once identified, or potential taxpayer savings.

Last week's tepid announcement was simply another moment in the past three years where NASA was making space exploration news but certainly not inspiring, convincing skeptics of a mission or giving any agency employee confidence in its future.

Thanks again for reading, and your reply. I hope NRO visitors read both pieces, and debate the merits of the course NASA is on. More attention needs to be paid to this agency.

Rory

(And of course, Posey's district was a typo. Thank you for pointing that out)

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   09/23/11 15:49

Re: "Last week's tepid announcement was simply another moment in the past three years where NASA was making space exploration news but certainly not inspiring"

This mess actually started in 2004 when Bush announced the return to the Moon and travel to Mars. It was a political move by the White House because Bush's poll numbers stank.

But when the idea sank like a lead balloon with the public and the media, the Bush Administration simply ignored it. In fact, Bush did not even acknowledge the initiative in his State of the Union address shortly thereafter where all kinds of gratuitous platitudes and pronouncements are made.

And then Griffin comes in acting like Constellation was real rather than a Potemkin Village. It was a charade.

Say what you want about Obama, all he did was bury an already dead horse that was shot by the Bush Administration.

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Rand Simberg
   09/23/11 16:03

This mess actually started in 2004 when Bush announced the return to the Moon and travel to Mars. It was a political move by the White House because Bush's poll numbers stank.

With all due respect, that's nonsense. No one in the White House thought that this would be a good way to boost the polls. The VSE came out of the fact that after Columbia, it was clear that we needed a new policy, and the VSE was all right, as far as it went. The problem came in when Bush hired Mike Griffin to implement it, and then moved on to more important things. Griffin completely ignored the Aldridge recommendations and wasted billions on unneeded new rockets. In a sense, the Obama policy was more in keeping with the original VSE, with its goals of promoting national security and encouraging commercial participation, than Constellation ever was.

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   09/23/11 16:30

What I meant was the White House walked away from the initiative politically almost immediately after the announcement.

So it was DOA. Griffin was an arm-waving technology fop.

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   09/23/11 17:00

Oh, is THAT what you meant? And here I thought you were just moving the goal posts once the nonsense of your original post became obvious.

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Rand Simberg
   09/23/11 16:30

But when NASA and Congress cannot come up with a reasonable plan or objective, it falls to President Obama to lead, and in this case he simply has not. So I do not agree that he has gotten space policy partially right. Congress should look beyond pork, yes, but they should also demand some long-term vision in the absence of one.

While I agree that the plan was poorly articulated (both the president and the administrator were disastrous on that score), I disagree that they didn't have a reasonable plan and objective. The problem was that Apollo has inured many of us to not being able to recognize a plan that doesn't look like Apollo (as I noted the other day at Open Market).

It was stupid on the part of the president to be dismissive of the moon, which remains on the menu, but the goal was to make it more affordable to do space operations in general, whereas Mike Griffin just wanted to redo Apollo, which turned out to be as unaffordable the second time as it was the first time (which is why they quit going to the moon once the space race was won).

If you really want to understand the intent of the new policy, I would suggest reading this piece at Popular Mechanics, that I wrote about a year and a half ago. Unfortunately, Congress seems determined to screw it up.

As an aside, I really wish that someone at Heritage (like maybe Baker Spring) could afford the time to pay closer attention to civil space policy. But the topic apparently doesn't have enough interest among the donors.

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   09/23/11 15:39

Re: "actually spawn a useful new industry"

Only there's no business model for a "useful" space industry.

The Space Station is a huge science project that delivers little value apart from supporting NASA and contractor employment. The only tenuous commercial application is eventual hyper-expensive space jaunts for millionaires. Why should the tax payers subsidize that?

And physics and human biology limitations mean that planetary travel is a pipe dream for cost, risk and duration reasons.

The American public has been seduced by Star Wars fantasies. As if "hyper" technologies are inevitable. As well as the contrived NASA simulation models (e.g. large Martian colonies) that suggest feasibility when in actuality, there is essentially none.

NASA scientists are indeed smart. But they have their own self-interests just like everybody else.

When a country is flat broke, space travel for its own sake just ain't worth it.

And OBTW, if the Chinese want to go to the moon - let'm. Why should we care?

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Rand Simberg
   09/23/11 16:14

Only there's no business model for a "useful" space industry.

Clearly, Bob Bigelow disagrees. He has invested over two hundred million dollars of his own money in the development of private space facilities, and already has several "sovereign clients" (aka other countries, such as Japan, the Netherlands and others) signed up to use them. He only awaits providers of competitive crew launch services.

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   09/23/11 16:38

My point is, use the space facilities for what?

Apart from very limited plutocrat tourism as a nouveau riche novelty, Bigelow's business model will be no different than Lockheed Martin's. I.e., he'll be a government contractor.

If foreign governments want to pay him for whatever, that's fine by me. But to be pretend that human space travel has genuine commercial value is far fetched.

That program is a "winner" I don't want the U.S. government to pick via subsidies.

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Rand Simberg
   09/23/11 17:05

My point is, use the space facilities for what?

Whatever his customers want to use them for. Who cares?

Apart from very limited plutocrat tourism as a nouveau riche novelty, Bigelow's business model will be no different than Lockheed Martin's. I.e., he'll be a government contractor.

Nonsense. Lockheed Martin works on cost-plus contracts. Bigelow will be a real estate owner who leases facilities.

But to be pretend that human space travel has genuine commercial value is far fetched.

There is nothing "pretend" about it. He is selling commercial services for a fee. Is Microsoft not commercial because it sells software to the government?

That program is a "winner" I don't want the U.S. government to pick via subsidies.

I have no idea what "program" or "subsidies" you're referring to.

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Blackjax
   09/24/11 11:07

I think you are overlooking the private research market on Bigelow stations.

This is something which is often overlooked and which could be bigger than people think because most people ask "How many companies would have both the big $$$ and the research needs to rent a module and fly their own astronaut?". I think this question makes some fundamental assumptions that are probably wrong and consequently leads to the answer (not very many) which causes this type of demand to be sidelined in the discussion.

The more likely scenario is the rise of companies that act as middleman human tended in space lab operators. These companies are the ones holding the leases with Bigelow and flying the astronauts, and then they turn around and provide a turnkey, low hassle, cost effective, user friendly way for companies and universities to get their research projects flown. Because the projects are paying for only what they need and not having to personally manage astronaut staffing & station leasing, the market is open to a much broader set of users than might otherwise be possible.

Because of the commercial nature of things, I am sure Bigelow and these middleman companies will be happy to keep CCDev craft flight rates and station facility sizing in line with the demand from the market so there won't be long waits in line for research projects to fly like you've seen with ISS and other options which have been available historically. Potientially this could cause what has historically been a fairly minor market to bloom into a much larger one.

Don't believe it'll work out? Have a look at the success of Nanoracks on ISS:
External Link 

Even with the current costs and complexity of operating on the ISS they have a big backlog. Imagine what the market will be when the CCDev competitors and Bigelow bring simplicity and lower costs.

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G-Town Fan
   09/23/11 15:41

So many words to defend commercial space, but Simberg yet avoids the fundamental problem with NASA. NASA exists to conduct, in general, three tasks: observation of the earth / space to assist with activities on earth (such as space weather, ground mapping, etc.); pure scientific research of space (probes) and aeronautics (elastic wing / quiet subsonic booms); and finally, human exploration of space.

Currently, NASA has been relegated to achieving two of the three objectives by the Bush and Obama administration, through their underfunding of the agency in place of other priorities. What does this have to do with SLS? If NASA wants to conduct deep space human missions, its going to require a very large launch vehicle to lift the necessary sized parts for that exploration. And, I can imagine that some science missions and national security missions could benefit from a very large vehicle.

So, why NASA? There is no market for Ultra Heavy Lift, but some missions will benefit from it; this is exactly where the US government should step in. To do the expensive, but necessary development, and leave the other tasks to private companies. So, leave private crew to private companies, no problem, but the big stuff will require government programs to get it started.

Lastly, the US needs a rocket program (any rocket program) for national security, unless you want to make developing new missiles (such as the replacements for 30 + year old ICBMs) prohibitively expensive, that skill has to be retained. And retaining those skills requires money. If the US believes that a solid fuel industry is necessary, even a small one, then it has to put the money down to keep it.

Second, everyone wants there to be more scientists / engineers, but at the same time those same people argue against any exciting and motivating national exploration program. An person with the technical skills to be a STEM researcher can make more money in the private sector trading on Wall St. Those same people need to be motivated by some other cause to forgo that income. That's the problem with the government's science outreach; they've forgotten that rockets are far more sexy and enticing to young people than some administrator blathering on about multicultural outreach. Cutting NASA's budget or the US's exploration of space will mean fewer people interested in going into engineering, thereby ensuring the US's economic future as a banking / cheap service economy.

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Rand Simberg
   09/23/11 16:11

NASA exists to conduct, in general, three tasks: observation of the earth / space to assist with activities on earth (such as space weather, ground mapping, etc.); pure scientific research of space (probes) and aeronautics (elastic wing / quiet subsonic booms); and finally, human exploration of space.

There is actually nothing in the NASA charter about the latter (please point to me in the Space Act where it says anything about human exploration of space). It does, however, require that NASA promote commercial activities to as great an extent as possible (per amendment during the Reagan administration).

If NASA wants to conduct deep space human missions, its going to require a very large launch vehicle to lift the necessary sized parts for that exploration.

This myth is not rendered true by repetition. Parts necessary for exploration are not intrinsically big. The vast majority of the mass in orbit to go to other destinations is propellant, which can be carried in any size vehicle. The United Launch Alliance and others have described how human exploration can be done with existing rockets, or growth versions of them. As long as we continue to insist that we cannot get out of earth orbit without an unaffordably large rocket that will only fly once every year or two, we will remain stuck in earth orbit. If we want to go beyond, we have to start working on the actual hardware needed to do that, and stop wasting money on unnecessary vehicles.

But even if it were true, there are much cheaper ways to get there than using Shuttle legacy hardware and work forces. This is nothing but a jobs program.

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G-Town Fan
   09/23/11 18:25

First of all, is it that bad that the US wants to maintain some rocket infrastructure? Imagine 10 years down the road, the US discovers that it can make carbon nanotubes sufficient for space elevators. All of a sudden, the US will need a heavy lift rocket to get them up. If the workforce disappears, then you'll get to spend 10 years getting the knowledge back, and after that. This is particularly the case for solid rocket motors. Absent NASA, the US solid rocket motor industry will disappear. Which means, that all the know how necessary for an ICBM will disappear.

As for commercial space, ha, I laugh at that notion. That has been around the corner for the last 40 years. A Falcon ride will cost, I believe, on the order of millions per seat. That won't get enough people to make it anywhere near practical.

You could be correct, NASA wasn't mandated to do human spaceflight, but NASAs primary mission, in the eyes of the American people, has been human spaceflight. If NASA gives that up, then there won't be a NASA. There won't be any exploration, space station to drive commercial space, because NASA will get cut to fund someone's retirement pension.

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Rand Simberg
   09/26/11 16:57

First of all, is it that bad that the US wants to maintain some rocket infrastructure?

The US has plenty of "rocket infrastructure," in Hawthorne, Canoga Park and Sacramento in California, Decatur Alabama and other places. The only "rocket infrastructure" that disappears with no SLS is the extremely expensive and unnecessary multi-segment solid industry in Utah.

Imagine 10 years down the road, the US discovers that it can make carbon nanotubes sufficient for space elevators. All of a sudden, the US will need a heavy lift rocket to get them up.

No, the US will need a cost-effective rocket to get them up. It may or may not need to be heavy lift, and if it is, ULA has plans to grow Atlas or Delta, much more affordably than the antique Shuttle technology.

Absent NASA, the US solid rocket motor industry will disappear.

Nonsense. The DoD still purchases them, for both ballistic missiles and strap-ons for the Atlas.

You could be correct, NASA wasn't mandated to do human spaceflight, but NASAs primary mission, in the eyes of the American people, has been human spaceflight. If NASA gives that up, then there won't be a NASA. There won't be any exploration, space station to drive commercial space, because NASA will get cut to fund someone's retirement pension.

This is an opinion, and not a particularly well-informed one, not a fact.

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Ralph Buttigieg
   09/23/11 19:11

G Town Fan wrote:

"So, why NASA? There is no market for Ultra Heavy Lift, but some missions will benefit from it; this is exactly where the US government should step in. To do the expensive, but necessary development, and leave the other tasks to private companies. So, leave private crew to private companies, no problem, but the big stuff will require government programs to get it started."

G Town Fan, that means there is a market NASA. If a Ultra Heavy Lift was really needed the easiest and cheapest way to do that would be to tender out a general requirement to industry. There have been proposals for larger versions of Deltas and Atlases for years and I sure SpaceX would be happy to help to. But of course those rockets have one terrible disadvantage. They are more efficient so require less people to operate them. SLS is a jobs program.

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ken anthony
   09/23/11 17:59

human space travel has genuine commercial value

How does economics work? Travelers are of two types: Visitors and residents. Residents often benefit from tourist visitors. There are no residents in space (ISS crews just visit.)

The blind keep looking for something to import from space. Settlement is an export.

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