Both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney spoke at Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan yesterday. But it was Romney who swept the straw poll, winning 51 percent to Perry’s 17 percent. Herman Cain, who won the Presidency 5 straw poll in Florida yesterday, placed third with 9 percent. Next was Ron Paul (8 percent), followed by Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich (4 percent), Rick Santorum (3 percent), and Jon Huntsman (2 percent).
For Perry, already fighting off campaign in turmoil stories in the wake of Thursday’s debate and yesterday’s Florida straw poll results, placing over 30 points behind Romney is another blow. It’s true that Romney had a significant advantage — his father was governor of Michigan — but for Romney to do that well even after Perry made the effort to give a speech bodes ill of his ability to woo over crowds.
Sounds like you're setting up a steep standard for Perry, expecting him to be competitive with Romney in the state Romney is actually from. I bet Perry would beat Romney by a lot more than that in TX, though of course it's not an equal battle as Mitt has been an MA guy for a while now.
And yes Perry is hurt in a multiway race. Another evangelical southerner finished third, another Texan finished third, another evangelical tied for fifth. Actually it's a real problem for Romney if his ceiling doesn't budge any higher than it has. It may not be Perry, but clearly there is great interest for anyone - Christie, e.g. - who isn't Romney to come in and challenge him. What happened with Bachmann and Pawlenty, and then with Perry and Bachmann, showed that Romney can't count on the not-Romney forces stubbornly staying split between nominees and allowing him to win 30-25-20-10-10-5. One of the challengers will always gain a slight lead over the other(s), and the feedback effect will then further the process along and push that person past Mitt. Perry may not be the ultimate beneficiary, but someone will unless Mitt can find a way to start appealing to 40% of voters overall.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd Romney finishing third in Florida means nothing, of course. Here's what it means, the Republican Party hasn't fielded a candidate that many feel comfortable with. Much like last time out, the party has fielded a bunch iffy "front-runners".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseStraws just aren't too important, as we all knowthese days. Caucuses are off as well.
Good to see Ms. Trinko keep up a fair standard covering professionally.
Midwest leaning Romney? Or is it just the home State crowd? After watching the debates and the campaigns, the Michigan "straw" actually looks quite serious and sane right now - they clearly want to defeat the Democrats (no playing around there).
Regardless, Perry is going to have major problems, and they are well earned - unfortunately, we see another fashionable flop as a Campaign. The 'epic fail' in terms of image over substance yet again.
Will Iowa save Perry? Or are they going to fashionably stick with Ms. Bachmann? (The Iowa Straw Poll's reputation is not standing too tall these days). Regardless, it is tough to imagine Perry and the rest of the crowd being competitive Nationally, when we look at the Map. Florida just ducked in dealing with the weak Perry offering.
Perhaps Mr. Perry will soon be telling us these GOP supporters are just "heartless" voters or something.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Florida ducked, why didn't they duck with Romney?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat's easy.
Michigan = serious and sane (because Romney won).
Florida = meaningless (except that Perry lost).
See how it all makes sense?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseExactly. It is the fashion.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf wer're going to push someone else into the race, why Christie, who is moderate on a number of issues, including climate change? If we need a fresh conservative standard-bearer, let's encourage Rubio who speaks well, is a genuine conservative and has extensive political experience at the state level.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBlood in the water smells so great to politicians. Perry is gushing gallons of the red stuff, and every marine carnivore within a thousand miles can sniff it. With the economy tanking and Obama looking like a stiff, the GOP nom seems like something really nice to have.
Next several weeks could be fun.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOkay, I've been playing taps for Perry a lot lately. For the best possible defense of Perry's chances, check Jonathan Tobin at Commentary. External Link
I think Jonathan is whistling real hard past a very gloomy graveyard, but he does make a valid point about Perry possibly improving his game. After all, Perry can't get much worse in the debates. What's he gonna do? Tell the GOP base that they aren't just heartless, but they also poop in their pants?
At this point any display of minimal competence from Perry - not just in the debates but in the campaign generally - would look terrific compared to his performance so far. That might help him start a "comeback kid" story line.
Or he could just follow Bachmann into single-digit-land.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOne thing I have observed about Perry is that conventional wisdom has written him off before in a campaign only to see him giving the victory speech come election night. Those who want to see him get the nod may still have reason to hope. Likewise, those who hope the nod goes to someone else should not get too complacent about Perry being finished yet.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe fact that most of the Perry Florida vote went to en masse to Cain signals it's essentially up for grabs and that's there is resistance to Romney. Does anyone think Cain is winning Florida next year? This vote may flow back to Perry is he ever gets his act together. If he doesn't and no one else credible gets in, it's going to be a very quick primary season, because Romney is the only one who will look like a viable candidate (I say this as someone who doesn't like him at all). He will win by default.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy does anyone think Cain won't win Florida next year?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf ever there was a time for Paul Ryan, this is it. He thinks he can do more good leading the wonky legislative side of things in 2013 and beyond, but there will be nothing to lead if we can't field a decent candidate for President. I think he can't help but notice that. Romney IS electable, and looking better each debate, but is also beatable in primary AND in general. The biggest single factor against Paul Ryan is the "wait --- is-this guy that libertarian wack-job?" factor......
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually, Perry is good at speaking at crowds (a lot better than debating, evidently). He was never going to draw well in a Michigan straw poll compared to Romney. Nobody else, you'll notice, did even half so well as Perry. Somebody has to win Iowa. It will be interesting to see what the next poll of Iowa says. Wasn't Perry leading there?
I heard an interesting discussion on the Wall Street Journal show on FOX about this, where they said Perry is really impressive in person and they haven't seen that Perry in the debates, perhaps because his handlers have told him to tone it down and not swagger and act macho. If that's what they're afraid of they better change quick cause they are killing his candidacy with their debate "strateegery."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHere's a must-see video of Romney on Taxes, Abortion, and Guns.
Which Romney? I'm afraid you'll have to watch the video to find out:
External Link
(And despite the clip of Ann Coulter at the end for spin, I'd say this is no small matter for any true conservative....)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe RINOs know Romney's a lib. Otherwise, they wouldn't support him, would they?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen the dust clears, and the votes are in, will Michigan vote Romney, or Obama? IMHO, Michigan is a shoe-in for the Democrats with the bail-out of GM & Chrysler and the UAW.
So count me unimpressed by the Michigan straw vote.
And I disagree with the premise that Perry's votes in Florida went to Cain. Since Romney didn't participate in that vote, I would suggest that many Romney votes went to Cain.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDoes anyone seriously believe that Michigan Straw Poll winner Mitt Romney had a "significant advantage" (51% to Perry's 17%) because his pater was governor of that state FIFTY YEARS ago?
Maybe Caroline Kennedy & Michael Reagan should run for political office in New York and California, respectively. A slam dunk, right?
Keep in mind, Romney is the only GOP candidate consistently running even or besting Obama in the national polls.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYeah, but a lot of us wouldn't vote for Romney unless the alternative was Satan himself.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKatrina Romney strikes again.
If Romney didn't win Mass. and Michigan by 30 points, his candidacy would be over today. Romney won't come close to Perry in Texas, but of course RINOs don't care about the state with the best economic record in this depression and the most electoral votes we can absolutely rely upon in 2012.
Instead, let's let a bunch of blue states with vestigial GOP organizations pick our candidate. Yeah, that's a good plan. For reelecting Obama.
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