The cartoonish Iranian assassination plot again focuses attention on our soft underbelly — Mexico. You can see why Iranians would want to hire the services of the drug gangs there; as David Ignatius writes in today’s Post:
But why the use of Mexican drug cartels? U.S. officials say that isn’t as implausible as it sounds. The Iranians don’t have the infrastructure to operate smoothly in the United States. They would want to use proxies, and ones that would give them “deniability.”
And, Lord knows, mass immigration ensures that the Mexican cartels have “the infrastructure to operate smoothly in the United States.”
But would cartel members (real ones, that is) work with Islamic terrorists to carry out attacks in the United States? The Stratfor people don’t think so:
“Any plan to use Mexican drug cartels to carry out attacks against the United States would threaten the very existence of the cartel,” a Stratfor analysis said.
“Mexican drug cartels are already facing challenges – struggling with one another and with the Mexican government for control over transportation routes that will allow them to transit cocaine from South America to the United States. Any foray into international terrorism would be bad for business,” Stratfor said.
I’ve spoken with George Grayson, a specialist in Mexican politics at William and Mary who’s forgotten more about Mexico than most people reading this ever knew, and he agrees that it’s unlikely.
I hope they’re right, but I fear they’re not. The Mexican government has succeeded in decapitating the cartels, opening advancement opportunities for less careful, more reckless killers from middle management who might not be quite as far-sighted as their venerable predecessors. What’s more, our current administration’s supine willingness to lick the boots of our current and former enemies (apologizing for Hiroshima? Really?) is the kind of weakness that might be seen as a green light by thugs and cutthroats the world over. Finally, Hezbollah (an arm of the Iranian state, remember) already has a presence in Mexico and one of its officials is under indictment for a deal to sell stolen U.S. weapons to the FARC in exchange for drugs to be smuggled into the U.S. by Mexican cartels.
In the end, why take the chance? We need more double-fencing on the border, military action to clear out the cartels’ forward operating bases in the U.S., reform or elimination of the Border Crossing Card, and more. If it turns out that the cartels are genuinely afraid of working with terrorists, then all we would have done is curtail illegal immigration and drug smuggling (no small achievement itself). But if the cartels are willing to do business with our Islamist enemies and we don’t do everything we can to clamp down at the border, then our government will bear part of the responsibility when the unnamed Washington restaurant is bombed, or a radiological weapon carried in by drug mules goes off in Tucson, or a suicide killer smuggled across by the Zetas goes on a killing spree at a Jewish summer camp in the Catskills.
While I too agree that it is unlikely, I also recall everyone saying that "Sunnis don't work with Shia" like it was gospel, and look how THAT turned out.
My fear is that a particularly nefarious cartel could look at the scene in Mexico and think that MORE instability could help its business. What better way to preoccupy the Mexican government than creating a genuine international crisis with the United States?
If there's on thing guaranteed to unify Mexicans of all political stripes, its distrust of the neighbor to the north-- push America into a position where they have no choice *but* to blockade the border, or even strike at the cartels in Mexico ala Pakistan, and the whole house of cards can come crashing down-- with a brazen cartel ready to step into the ensuing vaccuum.
It stinks of a Clancy novel, but sadly, it's not ludicrous-- even if it never came to pass, one could forgive an ambitious cartel for thinking it's worth *trying*.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat just seems weird is that the Iranians could not use their embassy in Mexico City to effect this. I think/think that, relying on family connections, this guy in Iran reached out to his ne'er-do-well cousin here, since he was on the ground, and it was the Amcit cousin who picked out the Mexicans as the bombers. They had, presumably, the right credentials (i.e., willing to kill without hesitation). What is sickly interesting to contemplate is whether this bombing in DC would have been attributed to the work of obvious suspects (you know, the tea party) or even whether the Saudi Ambo would be seen as the target or just collateral damage for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Mexican drug cartels have ALREADY carried out attacks in the US, and what have we done? Shipped them more weapons as "fast and furious"-ly as we can. Some of those guns are probably already in the Hamas hands. Anyone who says the cartels are afraid to support terrorists is just hoping that no action gets taken.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree with you Mark, but we all know that (sadly) Obama will never truly secure the border with double-layered fencing etc., because this would make his open border ethnocentric allies apoplectic.
It's obvious Obama, and prior administrations, are willing to roll the dice with our safety.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"military action to clear out the cartels’ forward operating bases in the U.S."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Great idea! Maybe some drone strikes on Phoenix or Houston? Don't hit Joe Arpaio's house!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo doubt.
Also according to a local article on the investigation of the hapless warrior taken into custody:
"Neighbors, however, said it had been years since Arbabsiar lived in the stucco house he once shared with his wife on a suburban cul-de-sac. They said it appeared as many as 10 people were living in the house, and lately there had been some signs of suspicious activity: When residents looked for available Wi-Fi networks, names like “FBI Van 1” would pop up."
Let's hope these guys aren't the ones directing the drones.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe guys with the drones appear to be too busy infecting their systems with Mafia Wars viruses...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"But if the cartels are willing to do business with our Islamist enemies and we don’t do everything we can to clamp down at the border, then our government will bear part of the responsibility when the unnamed Washington restaurant is bombed, or a radiological weapon carried in by drug mules goes off in Tucson, or a suicide killer smuggled across by the Zetas goes on a killing spree at a Jewish summer camp in the Catskills."
Why don't you just come out and say "MUSHROOM CLOUD"? It worked last time. So far we have 4 actors in this tragedy. The clownish mark. The Iranian government. The U.S. government. Mexican cartels. The Mexican cartels weren't actually a party to this because that guy was part of the U.S. government. That leaves three actors. And so far the only evidence of the Iranian government involvement (and not the clownish mark's shirttail cousin) is that IF the story is true, they must have known. Well there you have it! So for the record so far, we have the U.S. government, the clownish mark and his shirttail cousin involved in a "cartoonish Iranian assassination plot" resulting in people like Krikorian calling for U.S. military action WITHIN the U.S. Does anyone see a potential problem with this? I know, wrong website to ask that question.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"And, Lord knows, mass immigration ensures that the Mexican cartels have “the infrastructure to operate smoothly in the United States.""
Is it the mass of poor immigrants working here that provide the infrastructure, Mark? Or is it the multi-billion dollar drug industry financed by Americans?
You do your opposition to immigration of workers no favors by conflating these things.
What percentage of immigrants do you think are involved in the drug trade?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusewhat percentage of Armenian immigrants are in involved in the drug trade is what I'm wondering about:
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Hey Mark, how many of your cousins work in "import/export"?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFrom January 2011, jihadwatch [dot] org posted a piece about a William La Jeunesse (Fox news) report titled, "Iranian book celebrating jihad-martyrdom suicide bombers found in Arizona desert."
It includes the following: "Statements from US officials, including FBI director Robert Mueller, have raised serious concerns in recent years over 'OTMs' -- or illegal immigrants other than Mexicans -- who have crossed the southwest border at alarming rates. Mueller testified before the House Appropriations Committee in March 2005 [!] that 'there are individuals from countries with known Al Qaeda connections who are changing their Islamic names to Hispanic-sounding names and obtaining false Hispanic identities, learning to speak Spanish and pretending to be Hispanic.' [para] Just last year, the Dept of Homeland Security [sic] had in custody thousands of detainees from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. US Border Patrol statistics indicate that here were 108,025 OTMs [Other Than Mexican] detained in 2006, compared to 165,178 in 2005 and 44,614 in 2004...."
Hiding in plain sight.
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