The
editors have it just right on the CLASS Act. The administration’s latest Friday night bombshell was really no surprise at all. (The massive deficit announcement tonight surely couldn’t have surprised anyone either, though I certainly have to admit that getting involved in a war in Uganda is one I didn’t see coming.)
Just about every conservative critic of Obamacare pointed to the irrational design of the CLASS Act before the legislation’s enactment. In fact, the administration’s own CMS actuary said it would never work. He was ignored by his employers not because they disagreed with him, but because they needed to pretend their legislation would reduce the deficit. The CBO’s scoring methodology could be manipulated to accept a lot of implausible assumptions, but even with those the legislation needed help, and by designing the CLASS Act to start collecting premiums five years before it would start paying benefits (and counting those premiums as deficit reduction even though they would eventually need to be paid out in benefits) they were able to make the program seem to be in the black by $70 billion in its first ten years, which accounted for about half of the overall “deficit reduction” the Democrats claimed.
Of course, administration officials can’t acknowledge that they always knew the program’s finances could never work, so rather than admit to cynicism they are pleading incompetence. And who knows, maybe they really are that incompetent. Having assured Congress for over a year that the program could be made to work, HHS Secretary Sebelius said today that “Despite our best analytical efforts, I do not see a viable path forward for CLASS implementation at this time.” In essence: We tried our best, but the statute makes no sense.
Get used to that excuse. This confirmation that Obamacare cannot in fact defy the laws of mathematics and accounting should serve as a warning regarding the implementation of the broader law, most of which would begin in 2014 if it is not repealed by then. The other major provisions of the statute are also grossly ill-designed. If it is permitted to take effect in full, the law will cause premiums to rise rapidly in the individual market and create major dislocation in the employer market, driving people into vastly overregulated exchanges that would push premiums higher still, and then initiate a program of subsidies whose only real answer to the mounting costs of coverage will be to pay them with public dollars and so inflate them further. It aims to spend a trillion dollars on subsidies to large insurance companies and the expansion of an unreformed Medicaid system, to micromanage the insurance industry in ways likely to make it even less efficient, to cut Medicare benefits without using the money to shore up the program or reduce the deficit, and to raise taxes on employment, investment, and medical research. CBO does not expect it to make a real dent in the inflation of health-care costs or to avert the fiscal implosion of Medicare. Instead, it will double down on price controls and centralized administration and make a real reform of our system much more difficult. These outcomes are nearly as predictable as the fiscal collapse of the CLASS Act (and have been predicted by the same people who saw that the CLASS Act would never work, including the CMS actuary). But in the case of the CLASS Act, the Secretary of HHS was required to certify in advance that her actuaries believed it could be sustained, and at the end of the day there was no way around the fact that it couldn’t. The rest of the law has no such requirements, so the “we tried our best” excuse will come only after disaster strikes.
But none of this has to happen. It seems we will avert the fiscal disaster of the CLASS Act. Now let’s find a way to avert the even greater disaster of the rest of Obamacare by repealing the law and enacting in its place a set of market-based reforms of Medicare, Medicaid, and a private insurance sector badly distorted by decades of ill-conceived federal policies. American voters will have one chance, next November, to correct the terrible mistake made by their leaders last year before it fully takes effect. Let’s hope we do.
Suggestion to National Review: Start pressing Republican leaders to make a huge deal out of news like this. Just because the White House made a Friday-afternoon news dump out of this, and the media will cooperate, does not mean the Republican leadership should follow suit. They should be talking about this in speeches, on the floor of the House and the Senate, and most importantly, in every TV interview they receive. They should bring it up repeatedly, even if Bob or Dianne or Matt doesn’t want to talk about it. It is up to Republican leaders, who have a public platform, to make people aware of these things. And National Review, if it really wants to defeat Obama next year, needs to start pressing Republican leaders to do this. What we desperately need in the country is a long, relentless national argument on a host of issues, including Obamacare. Please stop crediting Republicans with being classy, above the fray, dignified, or anything else but derelict in their duty when they back away from arguing with Barak, Nancy, Harry, or their cohorts in the news media.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHere Here! Very well put. What a treasure trove of campaign ads this monstrosity known as Obamacare can be. This week, highlight the 16000 IRS agents slated to be hired for just one purpose and one purpose only, namely the enforcement of the law and the unbridled powers concomitant with their hiring. Next week highlight government access to bank accounts etc...
Above all, make the dems defend everything. Put them on their heels and don't relent.
Alas, however, I am just having a dream that the GOP might come to their senses that the campaign - especially this campaign - is a contact sport...and that they have the advantage should they chose to exercise it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell put. It is the task of the Republican leadership to bring these matters to the attention of a woefully misinformed (by the mainstream media) public, repeatedly from now until the election, and to contrast them with their own, free-market approach. That is the way - the only way - to victory.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMight want to fix the link, you're missing the : after http.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama exposed for more bald-faced lies. Rest of liberal media yawns.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Friday afternoon news dumps from the administration are becoming headlines only after average folks make a big deal out of it. Here's something that has also been ignored. As a teacher, my health insurance starts in September and runs into the next year until the end of August. As such, non union teachers in right to work states like Texas are already seeing the negative effects of Obamacare mandates in their paychecks. Despite a step pay increase in salary, courtesy of Obamacare, I am making $180 LESS per paycheck. Nobody's talking about this much because union teachers are waivered in many states and other states are absorbing some of the cost. But come Januray 15, 2012 when people get their first paycheck of the year, expect to hear the screaming loud and long. This program was never ever a program to provide healthcare to the uninsured. Had Obama meant to do that, it could have been done for far less. Right now, Obamacare may not provide adequate coverage for the same folks he was claiming to champion. In addition, failure to allow all necessary measures to reduce cost such as tort reform, true portability and cost comparison demonstrates an unwillingness by Obama to oppose his campaign contributors. While the AMA endorsed the bill, many doctors left the AMA because they knew the cost would fall on them. Liability costs for insurance to an OB/Gyn can cost three thousand dollars a month. Hey, they have to pay bills too. And most doctors in private practice have payrolls to meet and THEY are impacted by the cost of the "affordable" healthcare mandates. It's a vicious circle. We cannot afford these cynical partisan attempts to redistribute wealth by taking from everyone else to fund programs, agencies, services for a group that does not contribute. And any measure which gives the IRS the power to "decide" how much we can "afford" to pay for services is a bad idea. Defund Obamacare now, before it does more damage.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAccording to the CBO, CLASS was supposed to slice $68.8B off the deficit from FY12-19. Total on-budget deficit reduction for that time frame was $65B.
In other words, without CLASS, O-care explicitly adds to the deficit stream, and repeal will save money.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusejoe cor, well said! the democrats and a partisan media set the tone and substance of most political debate. i remain baffled that our side doesn't combat this with costant use of the media outlets that will give them a voice. nat review, rush, levine, ibd, wsj, cavuto etc.. to allow the msm to set the agenda and continue appearing on msnbc and cnn in the hope of fair treatment is a waste of time and often does more harm than good.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Now let’s find a way to avert the even greater disaster of the rest of Obamacare by repealing the law and enacting in its place a set of market-based reforms of Medicare, Medicaid, and a private insurance sector badly distorted by decades of ill-conceived federal policies."
It almost as difficult to introduce market reforms into these programs as to do away with them entirely. Might as well sunset them, since if they are not repealed in their entirety, they will slowly creep back to their present state.
This will happen no matter who is in control of the Congress and the White House. Let's remember that Medicare Part D was the work of Republicans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo mathematical and economic reality forced the cancellation of one aspect of O-Care? Really? Once again, I don't get it. Mathematical and economic reality has never been a factor before in the decision making of the democrats. The people who did Solyndra, etc. certainly had no interest in such, probably couldn't even tell you what it is. So why now, and on this?
The politics of manipulating democrat pet groups is always the primary decision factor for Obama and his minions. My guess is that they couldn't work it to supply money/support for the democrat party. Long-term care involves, let's be delicate on this, the terminal elderly, a group that will be "processed" by other aspects of O-Care in any event. Not a constituency worth fretting over and a good many perhaps most of them are white. What a yawner, but it does give the democrats a budget cutting figleaf in the face of our monumental debt.
But that is just a guess though I believe an educated one on my part. The real reason(s) for this cancellation would make for a fascinating story. Anyone want to give it a go?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think it goes to show you just how bad CLASS was designed and implemented. If they don't ditch it, then other parts of the law start to come unstitched too because CLASS was counted as deficit reduction...i.e. it contributed to the sustainability of Obamacare overall. Dumping no money into CLASS is better than divering wheelbarrow's of cash away from Obamacare and into CLASS.
Don't know if I'm right, but it is a truism of bureaucrats that they will try to keep a program alive right up until that program threatens the survival of a more important program.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDid the law give the administration the option to skip CLASS or is this another example of the administration saying we don't like this law and won't follow it? Although we may agree with the result, did O follow legal procedures to get there?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy not pass a simple bill with the same requirements for the other provisions of ObamaCare before they are implemented, otherwise they are deemed null?
No repeal needed - the law is nullified unless it can prove itself sustainable.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCLASS was based on voluntary participation...which will not materialize, and therefore will not provide the requisite funding.
The rest of Obamacare was passed based on the requirement of involuntary participation - forced purchase of health insurace - i.e. lots of taxes. HHS would simply state it is sustainable as long as Congress raises taxes.
Your plan won't work right now which is why the ant-Constitutional individual mandate needs to be struck down. Once/If it is, the law falls apart because (as you point out) Obamacare would then be unsustainable...no taxes to fund it.
I think you have the right idea, and it would probably be the main justification for repeal once/if the individual mandate is struck down.
The GOP needs to have a plan ready to go if Obamacare goes down because I think there could be national chaos in healthcare. They're going to need a transition plan to undo Obamacare regulations, re-institution elements of the "old" system, and introduce market-based reforms. Obamacare was designed as a parasite to make it really hard to separate from the host without killing the host.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually it won't be a very big deal at all if it is repealed. Most of the provisions are not so deeply embedded that they cannot be easily removed.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe not. I am mandated to pay insurance premiums to cover 26 year old "children". When that is facing repeal, all kinds of sob stories involving under 26 year olds with medical catastrophes will be coming out of the woodwork. The idea of any federal control of private heathcare decisions must be relentlessly debunked.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSpot on. Obama's speech today about Republicans wanting everyone in America to die is right in line with your point.
It's not enough to repeal it. That'll be like starting a heart transplant, and doing the surgery, only to find out that nobody lined up the donor organ. Oops.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat you morons don't realize is that the failure of CLASS was intentional. It illustrated that the government must impose laws to make people buy insurance. It is the best endorsement of the one aspect of the bill that offends most people. The joke is on you.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI want to see the whole ObamaScare bill unravel. Then I will do the dance of joy..
ONE TERM ..
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis morning I went to a meeting hosted by my Medicare supplement provider, in which changes in the plan were announced. After decades of self-employment and -insuring, it is quite something to now have care available for a modest cost. Not that I had care while self-insured; after paying a huge premium, any doctor visits always cost another several hundred dollars per, due to a $5K annual deductible, so I didn't see doctors.
Oh the grumbling that went up from the group this morning when they saw that they would have to pay $45, instead of last year's $25, to see a specialist!
We've got a large population of people who are accustomed to free health care, and I don't know how we can ever walk that back to sanity.
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