Thomas Friedman recently offered a review of Obama’s foreign policy in which he made, if indirectly, the now common comparison of Libya and Iraq:
In Libya, Obama saved lives and gave Libyans a chance to build a decent society. What they do with this opportunity is now up to them. I am still wary, but Obama handled his role exceedingly well.
No doubt George Bush and Dick Cheney thought that both Iraq and Afghanistan would be precisely such focused, limited operations. Instead, they each turned out to be like a bad subprime mortgage — a small down payment with a huge balloon five years down the road. They thought they would be able to “flip” the house before the balloon came due. But partly because of their incompetence and lack of planning, it took much longer to flip the house to new owners and the price America paid was huge. Iraq may still have a decent outcome — I hope so, and it would be important — but even if it becomes Switzerland, we overpaid for it.
So let’s be clear: Up to now, as a commander in chief in the war on terrorism, Obama and his national security team have been so much smarter, tougher and cost-efficient in keeping the country safe than the “adults” they replaced. It isn’t even close, which is why the G.O.P.’s elders have such a hard time admitting it.
Friedman is quite right to note the mistakes in Afghanistan and Iraq that cost American lives, while Libya cost not one, but that easy logic ignores a lot of reality:
1) We have no idea what North Africa, much less Libya, will soon look like — although the grotesque shooting of Qaddafi is in contrast with the trial of Saddam, and so far the Iraqi government has not subordinated its entire legal system to Sharia law, which was the first proclamation from the new Libyan “government” (i.e., the National Transitional Council, whose leader Mustafa Abdul Jalil just boasted, “As a Muslim country, we have adopted the Islamic Sharia as the main source of law. Accordingly, any law that contradicts Islamic principles with the Islamic Sharia is ineffective legally”).
In other words, to the degree the U.S., stupidly or wisely, puts troops on the ground before, during, or after an air campaign, it has a costly but positive role in postwar reconstruction (cf. Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.); but to the degree it does not, it does not. We hope that, in a year, Libya resembles an Islamizing Turkey and not chaotic Somalia or theocratic Iran, but we simply don’t know. I hope Friedman is correct that it “is now up to them,” but when a power removes by force a government (even a repulsive one) that did not pose a strategic threat, history suggests that it feels, or others feel, that it has some responsibility for what follows.
2) Whatever one thinks about Iraq and Afghanistan, they are not comparable to Libya. The former are distant, large countries of 30-some million people. Afghanistan is landlocked, with forbidding weather and terrain, and borders former Soviet republics, Pakistan, and Iran; Iraq in the heart of the ancient caliphate with neighbors like Syria and Iran. Libya, in contrast, is a tiny nation of 6.4 million people, almost all concentrated on the coast, and situated on the Mediterranean shore, an hour or so from traditional NATO bases. Removing Saddam or the Taliban and staying on to foster consensual government is simply a different level of magnitude than taking out Qaddafi — and who knows what next.
3) We cannot forget chronology: Iraq came before Libya. Qaddafi surrendered his biological, chemical, and quite surprisingly advanced nuclear programs after the removal of Saddam; had he not (and he probably would not have, without Saddam’s example), who knows what eight years of further development and deployment would have led to by 2011? With such weapons, both the rebels and NATO would have been far more cautious in their reactions to his use of force, The catalysts for the Arab Spring are many, but the trial of Saddam and the survival of a democratic government in Iraq were positive forces — as we saw from the Syrian departure from Lebanon and the arrest of Dr. Khan in Pakistan.
4) Qaddafi was a monster in rehab who by 2011 posed little strategic threat to the U.S. or its neighbors — at least so had argued the British, French, and Italian governments that were scrambling to negotiate new deals with him, and an array of American intellectuals, academics, and commercial reps who wrote about the so-called moderating influences in Libya and the next generation of Qaddafi offspring who would transition it back into the community of nations.
The Taliban, in contrast, were the hosts of the 9/11 attackers. We had fought one war against Saddam (who had attacked four of his neighbors) and were in the midst of a 12-year no-fly-zone effort that was shedding NATO allies, after a major bombing operation in the last year of the Clinton administration. Worries about Saddam were expressed in the 20-something writs passed by both houses of Congress in October 2002, after an earlier regime-change resolution passed in the Clinton era. There is no comparable legislation regarding Libya.
5) As far as authorization goes, it too is problematic: True, we got U.N. approval for Libya, unlike Iraq, but only to conduct a no-fly-zone and offer humanitarian assistance. Almost immediately we exceeded that — as we had to, if we were to win and remove the Qaddafi family — by targeted assassinations and a full-fledged bombing campaign in concert with the rebels. Does all that strengthen or weaken reliance on U.N. resolutions in the future? And unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, for which there were joint congressional resolutions, we intervened in Libya without the approval of Congress, and with many erstwhile critics of Bush’s interventions writing weird briefs explaining why the administration did not need congressional approval to bomb in Libya.
6) Friedman is right in saying that Republican leaders have a hard time admitting Obama’s anti-terrorism successes. But why is that? Perhaps because Obama was once a fierce critic of nearly all the Bush/Cheney anti-terrorism protocols — the Patriot Act, tribunals, renditions, preventive detention, Guantamo, Iraq — at a critical time when such political opposition almost ended them altogether, on the premise they were either amoral or ineffectual or both. But mirabile dictu, President Obama adopted or vastly expanded almost all of them, assured that his associates’ criticism would magically cease around January 2009, which of course it did.
So while GOP candidates should appreciate that the administration dispatched OBL, helped get rid of Qaddafi, and has taken out over 2,000 suspected terrorists through airborne assassination, they also notice the irony — and sense that if the country had listened to legislator, senator, and candidate Obama, then none of the tools he now seems to find so critical would even exist.
For the reasons VDH pointed out, it's almost impossible to compare the situations in any meaningful way. Libya, sadly, will likely end up being "Haiti 2: This Time It's Even Less Personal." Positives: Cost us no lives, and little money, relatively speaking. Negatives: Looks like the same country it was before, but now we have to learn a new dictator's name. The good news for some of the more shallow thinkers (like, apparently Thomas Friedman) is that now we can pat ourselves on the back for a humanitarian job well done, and go about forgetting that the country that was the object of our military intervention even exists anymore.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFriedman is an embarrassment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet China have him.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama does have a pretty good foreign policy record - under his watch we've succeeded in whacking Osama, al-Aleki, the 2,000+ terrorists mentioned by VDH. We've rescued civilians from Somali pirates, led sanctions against Iran and Syria, and have played a pivotal role in getting rid of Ghadafi.
Good thing the republicans weren't allowed to block him on any of this. Imagine how good things would be working out domestically if it weren't for the Republican congress! My guess is that this is slowly starting to sink in with a majority of U.S. voters. 2012 is going to be pretty rough for the GOP, like 2006/2008 rough. LOL!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSanctions against Syria and Iran - wow, those really worked. As for 2012, dream on.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo remember kids. Moe thinks it's fine to ignore the UN and engage in war in a country not engaged in hostilities with us, as long as the President has a D after his name!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes. Even as the waves washed and the boats bobbed, The One, on the 7 hole green, Martha's Vineyard, paused and took a deep breath and sent his calming mien cross the briny blue. In that instant, Officer (redacted) of Seal Team Six, became one with the ocean, with his weapon, with the wind, and he took his shot. And then The One took his putt.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou unwittingly provide a perfect illustration for why republicans seem to loathe giving the Obama administration much credit for the success in removing Quadaffi from power. It's the gloating, and the smug self-assurance , and the utter lack of decorum-like a receiver who catches a touchdown pass in the middle of the third quarter , does a victory dance in the end zone, , and claims victory. This constant self-gratification by ticking off the names of terrorists Obama has "killed", is unseemly, and distasteful and seems a common thread in this administation (see Hillary Clinton's dancing on Quadaffi's corpse.)Does anyone remember Bush or Cheney bragging about their victories in the War on Terror?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI seem to remember Busy stopping an Air-craft carrier that was headed for home, and making it stay out at see so he could land on it in a pilot costume and make a speech in front of a banner his team requested saying "Mission Accomplished!"
Some might call that bragging.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd Bush killed tens of thousands of terrorists, deposed the most brutal dictator in the world, brought down the most brutal theocracy in the world, rescued dozens of hostages, stopped Ghadafi's WMD program, and led sanctions against Iran and North Korea.
And somehow, Bush managed to get Congress' permission for all of this.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Bush himself killed thousands of terrorists, you can't say the Obama didn't kill OBL etc.
Those who scoff that Obama was on the golf course rather than actually doing the real work should apply the same standard to Mr. Bush when he was cuttin' brush in Crawford.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEven less appropriately, Obama himself made the implicit comparison yesterday, noting that Qaddafi was taken out "with no loss of American life, and at a cost of a Billion, rather than a Trillion dollars."
These disingenuous comparisons are traditionally left to professional spin-meisters, but, in keeping with the entire classlessness of this administration, Obama makes this sort of snarky condemnation of the Bush Administration personally - and, what's worse, he seems to be shallow enough to believe it.
I seem to remember Bill Clinton trying the "no boots on the ground" trick with both Saddam and Bin Laden; it didn't work out very well, did it? Is that because Bill Clinton is incompetent, or because Iraq and Afghanistan are not Libya?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLibya was easy. That is why NATO could do it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is, of course, a great example of the mental illness of leftism: the inability to maintain a consistent position. Suddenly it's not about 'illegal' use of American 'imperialism'. It's about if you can assist in the murder of foreign leaders without any significant cost to the US.
Basically, the same people who pretended to be principled and reasoned are now arguing for targeted assassination and the backing of foreign coups.
How awesome it must be to be a leftist.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHas told us a lot of Iraqis that even after the capture of Saddam Hussein were worried - or hoped in a few cases - is to return the Baath Party. After his execution, only a few years the Iraqis are sure that it has been completed and his family. In contrast, the Libyans know now that the tyrant will not return, despite the fact that his sons and some of the elements of his security forces are still at large as a rallying point for supporters of Gaddafi as possible.
Must provide the person's security. After the departure of a dictator, the security of the population is a function most important to any government, and in Iraq was for the arrest of Saddam Hussein, two consequences are positive Vorretan; Within two weeks, I received and my staff - both directly and through United Nations channels - are signs that some members of the resistance suggest to their desire to stop the rebellion. Although the signals that were contradictory, the sender is not clear, decided to respond positively, but unfortunately did not Eardena something else after the show. But during the two months following the capture of Saddam Hussein, the number of attacks on coalition forces significantly, February 2004 witnessed the lowest number of casualties among U.S. troops in any month of the war until 2008.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen Obama replaces the Ayatollah of Iran for a billion dollars and with no loss of American life, he can gloat. Until then, he is - as Herman would say - comparing apples to oranges.
PS - Iran posed and continues to pose an exponentially greater threat to America and her allies than Libya did. EXPONENTIALLY. Gloating about Qaddafi's departure is like the Captain of the Titanic gloating about how slowly the ship was sinking.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen it comes to Mr. Obama, conservatives always take the low road.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOf course Obama doesn't have people like Thomas Lauren Freidman (Or Barack Obama for that matter) doing all they can to engineer defeat from the rear.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHuh! So the commenters here must support either:
1) Leave Qaddafi in power.
OR
2) Iraq-like full scale invasion of Libya.
No thanks.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUm, "leave Qadaffi in power," was official US policy for 42 years, even in the immediate wake of Lockerbie. Why did it need to change nine months ago, apart from wag-the-dog domestic political considerations?
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