This Halloween, the scariest thing for the World Bank and the United Nations isn’t the costumes. It’s the children. News that the world population passed 7 billion this October 31 has brought the usual doom-and-gloom predictions about famine, resource scarcity, and poverty. To many, it seems, people are a problem
The U.N. Population Fund argues, “Governments that are serious about eradicating poverty should also be serious about providing the services, supplies, information that women, men and young people need to exercise their reproductive rights.” The World Bank says, “Each new billion will pose more problems than the previous billion. We need to act now to mitigate future population growth in the 49 least developed countries.”
Put aside the doom and gloom for a minute. This view isn’t new. We can trace it back to as early as 1798, when the Rev. Thomas Malthus thought that the population was growing at an unsustainable rate. Modern Malthusians like President Obama’s chief science adviser, John Holdren, wanted government control over fertility in the 1970s. The Chinese government followed their advice to the letter, enforcing a strict one-child-per-family limit to this day.
To prophets of demographic doom, people are “problems,” parasites on the environment and on the economy. But human history shows the exact opposite trend. People solve environmental and economic problems. They don’t cause them. Poverty, pollution, and scarcity are mankind’s natural states. It is wealth, cleanliness, and abundance that are unnatural. In reality, it is humanity’s problems that remain static, while solutions continue to pile up. Each generation builds upon the accomplishments of the last until people forget that pollution and poverty were ever normal.
Poverty persists despite a growing population, not because of it. Economic and environmental development depend on many minds working together to solve problems. Farmers and bioengineers work on food problems. Miners and drillers work on energy and raw-materials problems. Contractors and engineers work on transportation and construction problems. Each individual uses his or her own ingenuity and labor to pay others to work on their problems for them. Fewer people means fewer solutions, not fewer problems.
We can stop this process by creating artificial barriers. The European Union and the United States heavily subsidize and protect their agricultural industries, which means that African farmers cannot trade their solutions for ours — their agricultural products for our manufactured goods. This means their problems are being solved far more slowly than they would be if they could trade freely. They work on the food problem, but if they cannot trade with others working on other problems, fewer problems get solved. Africans suffer because too few people contribute to their economy, not because too many do.
A higher population also increases the chance that brilliant problem solvers — innovators or geniuses — will be born. As Richard Dawkins says in his book, Unweaving the Rainbow, “The potential people who could be in my place … include greater poets than Keats, scientists greater than Newton. We know this because the set of possible people allowed by our DNA so massively exceeds the set of actual people.” The 7 billionth person might well change the world, wherever he or she is born, and we should celebrate each life with that fact in mind. Recent reminiscences of Steve Jobs’s remarkable life should remind us of that.
Environmentalists fear more people will pollute the environment. Fortunately, the facts are on the side of the new children. The developed world has largely eliminated the worst pollutants — natural viruses and bacteria that contaminated food and water supplies. As the threats from those pollutants faded, people turned their attention to industrial pollutants — air and water toxins. Today, America’s air and water quality are at their best levels ever. Since 1988, the release of toxic chemicals as measured by the EPA has decreased by over 60 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 60 million. Meanwhile, the Green revolution in agriculture allowed much of U.S. farmland to return to wilderness over the last century, even as the population exploded and everyone was fed.
The same is true in the developing world. In China, for example, according to the World Bank, “There has been a great deal of progress on the environmental front in the last ten years. China is one of a few countries in the world that have been rapidly increasing their forest cover. It is also managing to reduce air and water pollution.” More people are better at solving environmental problems, just as they are better at solving economic ones.
While women in the developing world shouldn’t be denied reproductive rights, Western governments shouldn’t encourage population-limiting policies. Not only are they bad economics, they are bad morals. As the great economist Julian Simon says, “Enabling a potential human being to come into life and to enjoy life is a good thing, just as protecting a living person’s life from being ended is a good thing.” The 7 billionth person isn’t a Halloween horror show. If we should be scared of anything, it’s the population terrorists.
— Iain Murray is a vice president and David Bier a research associate at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
"While women in the developing world shouldn’t be denied reproductive rights, Western governments shouldn’t encourage population-limiting policies. Not only are they bad economics, they are bad morals."
Looking at UN population and birthrate data, it is fair to say women of the world are not being deprived "reproductive rights". Look at Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, China, Brazil, and Mexico. They all have plunging birthrates. And by plunging I mean drastic reductions in short periods of time, In 1970, Brazil had a TFR of 5.8 births per female. Today it is 1.8. In Egypt, a female averaged almost 6 children in 1968. Today it is 2.2 . In Mexico, birthrates are around 2.4, in 1970, they were around 5.2 . Japan is losing population. China, Russia, most of Europe and Canafa will begin losing population (if trends continue) by 2040 at the latest. And in places like western Africa, and portions of East Asia, wars and AIDs are decimating populations. I think it is fair to say that we have little fear of our global population getting much greater than 10 billion. And it is fair to say, that for the next 50 years, the global population will age quickly.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGolly, maybe people should take a look at projections for 2050 and try to resist the urge to tell other people what to do. Under current conditions, population growth is expected to moderate. Under some assumptions it could go negative after 2050. India is projected to have more people than China.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEvery 10 years they re-do the estimates, and every 10 years, the date of peak population, gets sooner and peak population gets lower. I'd be surprised if the population does not start shrinking by 2030.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo now Alaska can house every single person on earth in individual 1,335 square foot homes with 1,000 square feet of yard space. Divide by about 2 if you prefer the entire population of the world to live in Texas.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"The same is true in the developing world. In China, for example, according to the World Bank, “There has been a great deal of progress on the environmental front in the last ten years. China is one of a few countries in the world that have been rapidly increasing their forest cover. It is also managing to reduce air and water pollution.”:"
It would be pretty hard to mess China up any more than what Mao did during the Great Leap Forward. Rapidly increasing forest area? When you get to use coal instead of shrubbery and trees for heat, that tends to happen all by itself.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's one thing to say that (i) population-growth alarmism has generally been wrong, (ii) there's a strong element of anti-human, pseudo-religious nature-worship among population-growth alarmists, and (iii) population decline, rather than unchecked increase, seems likely to be the bigger problem in the next few decades. But the authors here go beyond that, and come close to making an equally silly argument on the other side, that more people is always better. Presumably they themselves don't believe that--unless we start colonizing other planets, there must be some point at which further population increases start seriously impeding our quality of life, and some point beyond that at which sustainable survival is threatened. But there's no limiting principle articulated above.
And the point about having more kids so that we can have more geniuses is pretty silly. We'll also have more morons, mass murderers, and evil geniuses, and geniuses tend to breed less than morons in any case. More generally, it seems to me that the evidence supports the conclusion that there are plenty of potential geniuses in any sizeable population, and that the key is having an environment where that genius is stimulated and put to use. For example, J.S. Bach and Handel were born the same year, in the same corner of the world. Michaelangelo, Da Vinci, and Raphael were contemporaries and near-compatriots. Plato, Socrates, and Aristotle flourished in the same time and place. All of them arose from populations much smaller than ours.
It's possible to be pro life and to be concerned about sub-replacement fertility rates in developed countries, and yet prefer a world where there are 25 people per square kilometer to a world in which there are 500 people per square kilometer. If we get the culture right, we'll still have plenty of geniuses.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgreed that that comment was silly, and quoting Richard Dawkins of all people to make it, and from that source quoting a moronically reductive statement about DNA, makes it even worse.
"Reproductive rights" is usually a euphemism for the vivisection of unborn infants, and I care a lot more about preventing that than I do about abstract arguments about what number of people is desirable.
Those things said, while I'm not wedded to this theory, I think population growth is the mother of progress. Imagine if you knew you could do exactly what your parents did and have exactly the standard of living they had. You might still be inspired to do more, but would everyone?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am unaware of any problem that more people solves. It may delay problems or put off the day of reckoning, but really, is Africa better off today with twice as many people as it had just a few decades ago?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseReally? So, random example: raising a barn. You're saying that's much easier with less people than more people? Building a water purification system, digging up iron ore, manufacturing clothes, selling farming equipment... the list is endless. The whole basis of society is that bigger populations get more done.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAre the problems in Africa caused by too many people?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis high school-level column is easily debunked rubbish.
But let's resettle the refugees in Iain's neighborhood, and on the Martha Vineyards, Amagansetts etc. Once this is done, we can talk.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"People solve environmental and economic problems. They don’t cause them. Poverty, pollution, and scarcity are mankind’s natural states. It is wealth, cleanliness, and abundance that are unnatural. In reality, it is humanity’s problems that remain static, while solutions continue to pile up."
Humans don't cause pollution? Did space aliens beam down nuclear waste, then? Shall we blame the haze in LA on migratory birds? And people don't cause poverty and scarcity? Did the space aliens give us Lysenkoism and the Cultural Revolution too?
"And the point about having more kids so that we can have more geniuses is pretty silly. We'll also have more morons, mass murderers, and evil geniuses, and geniuses tend to breed less than morons in any case."
Yes. In my view, it's not just that the argument is silly; it's that it's so transparently absurd that it's astounding that anyone would make it. I think a reasonably bright middle schooler could refute it without difficulty.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe problem is that you're only looking at one side of the equation. It's a common mistake, but a serious one. Humans can cause pollution, yes, but they also work on its abatement. Humans consume food, but they grow food too. See how that works. Please try to fully understand the argument. May I suggest you read Peter Huber's Hard Green when you have some time.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo, not at all. I'm adding in the side that Murray and Bier decided to ignore. They are, after all, the ones who claimed that people didn't cause economic and environmental problems. If you're saying that they both cause and cure those problems, that's fine (and obviously true), but it's different from the argument they were making.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEverybody choose a young worker to pay for your retirement.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDibs on a doctor.
Oh Lord!
I think I hear singing.
Can it be? Is that... Barbra?
Yes yes yes, it's DEFINITELY Barbra!
And... she wants us to join in!
All together now:
People,..... people who need people
Are the luckiest people in the world
We're children..... needing other children
And yet letting our grown-up pride
Hide all the need inside
Acting more like children than children
Lovers are very special people
They're the luckiest people in the world
With one person,..... one very special person
A feeling deep in your soul
Says you WERE half now you're whole
No more hunger and thirst
But first be a person who needs people
People, .....people who need people
Are the luckiest people in the world.
With one person, one very special person
A feeling deep in your soul
Says you WERE half now you're whole
No more hunger and thirst
But first be a person who needs people
People,...... people who need people
Are the luckiest people in the world.
Of course, on the other hand....Sartre claims that Hell is other people.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAt present population growth rates, Germany will be completely depopulated in 300 years. I agree with the author that more humans are not the problem in this world, and efforts to control what people do result in tragedy, misery, and death. Recent history has shown that as soon as a society enters the Information Age, birthrates plummets. If the anti-human low population propagandists mean what they say, they would drop their inhuman efforts at controlling people and expend their efforts making that happen.
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