Jonah mentioned earlier Commentary’s symposium on America’s future, in which I am officially the voice of pessimism. In fairness, I see myself as more of a the-glass-is-one-sixteenth-full type.
At any rate, Veronique’s post is a good example of why pessimism is the way to bet. The prevailing bounds of American politics do not allow for meaningful course correction. Instead:
1) Months are expended in a dramatic media showdown over the debt crisis with network anchors warning of ever more looming deadlines over footage of various eminences shuttling between the White House and the Capitol.
2) At the last minute, a deal is triumphantly announced.
3) The deal allegedly saves $1 billion from FY2012 — or approximately what the Government of the United States borrows every five hours. So in less time than it takes to run the press release for the breakthrough deal off the photocopier, we’ve borrowed back all the money it saves. But hey, it’s a start. And it’s the thought that counts.
4) Months later, the actual bill goes through, and — whaddayaknow? — the cheeseparing austerity package of spending cuts turns out actually to increase spending by $10 billion.
5) Lather, rinse and repeat.
Don’t worry, you say. Wait until we get a Republican Senate elected.
But a third of GOP senators voted for the “uncontroversial, non-partisan” measure. And three-fifths of them voted against even modest cuts to a typically wasteful “rural development” boondoggle that creates jobs in Guatemala and subsidizes Mohegan Sun casino. And, if you can’t even trim back a program that hands out $3 million grants to add a gallery to an old sea dog’s house on Martha’s Vineyard, it’s no wonder 40 members of the allegedly rock-ribbed Republican House have decided that supporting the raising of “new revenue” is easier than cutting spending.
In 2011, the United States government took in $2.17 trillion but blew through $3.82 trillion — and that’s before Entitlement Armageddon shows up down the road. If you’re spending $4 trillion but only raising $2 trillion, you need to be cutting government in half or you’re not serious. Washington is not serious. Indeed, it’s far more frivolous than Athens.
The world has begun to figure out that the US political class is institutionally incapable of changing its ways, and cannot be diverted from the most expensive suicide in global history. Regardless of whether or not the downgrade wallahs are a bunch of shysters, nobody could seriously argue that the present finances of the United States merit triple-A status. Once that’s gone, the dollar’s status as global reserve currency is on the block. And after that what’s holding the joint up?
Where were you exactly 12 months ago? November 2nd 2010. America held an election that day. Remember that? The shot heard round the world? But apparently not in Washington. Doesn’t November 2nd 2010 feel a lot further away than twelve months ago?
The GOP still doesn't hear us. Is it going to take yet another thumpin'?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKeep up the fine work Mr. Steyn. We may watch the thing go up in smoke, but at least a few of us will be armed with a final "told you so."
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"The most expensive suicide in global history," pretty much sums up what is afoot. I've been conscious of politics since my childhood recollections of Dwight Eisenhower and the McCarthy hearings on the little black and white box. During that time, no matter how low my expectations of the political class, my cynicism is never adequate to match the reality. of the moment.
I note with disgust the items that currently occupy the focus of the political class and their enablers in the media, rather than what ails us. It is said that the citizens of a nation get the government they deserve. Our current situation speaks volumes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI've been paying attention since the early 70's (b. 1968) and I've never been given cause for hope. Yeah, I admit, my parents were Birchers. They really haven't been wrong about much.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI couldn't agree more. It's so disheartening to see the agenda so far from where it should be, the West is really sleepwalking into one hell of a catastrophe.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGlass 1/16th full? Mark Steyn exposed as fantastically sunny optimist.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDont' blame the politicians for being spendthrift. Blame the US voters because they want more free government goodies. US is destined to getting much closer to Greece before enough American voters may, hopefully, wake up. Meantime, we should care less whether it is Obama, Cain, or Romney gets elected in 2012. Regardless of who wins, Amercians don't want change yet.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePeople don't WANT to see the tsunami headed our way.
They've noticed that the ocean has receded drastically, but even before it drew back, that maniac Glenn Beck had started hollering for everyone to head for higher ground.
It has been much more fun to mock Beck and Steyn and VDH than to face the fact that it's all about to be swallowed by the sea, and we, busy with our sand castles, haven't a clue of where the higher ground IS, much less where to find a boat.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNormalcy bias is a very dangerous thing. It's even hard for me sometimes to accept what is going on. You really don't want to believe it because it's so horrifying.
But every day you watch the news and it's hard NOT to believe it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have had a premonition about the economy collapsing suddenly since about 2004, long before Glenn Beck started muttering about a perfect storm. I had nothing to base it on except the vague feeling that nothing good lasts forever, and that all bubbles eventually pop, which our economy probably was.
So when Beck and Steyn began warning about the sky falling, it all made sense.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe only way cuts can ever happen and prove effective is to make them across the board from current actual spending levels (not budgeted amounts) -- i.e., every department, agency and office must cut fy2012 spending by 10 percent below fy2011 actual spending. The Pentagon, domestic agencies, the FBI, the CIA, every one, no exceptions, no delays. Run out of your 90 percent in August and you're on your own.
Ten percent because the first five percent will always be baloney -- cutting back on the cushions every agency has built into its budgets -- so real, serious cuts that will result in lower spending in those notorious "out years" will only kick in when you force them to cut that second five percent.
Except for Congress and the so-called Executive Office of the President which should have to cut 15 percent both because their budgets are exceptionally cushy and because they should set a real example of leadership. The EOP now has more than 1,000 employees (and no, that does not include the Secret Service who are Treasury employees and it also does not include an unknown number of military aides and others seconded to the White House). Lincoln ran the Civil War with two assistants and a few clerks. FDR ran WWII with a few dozen White House aides.
Congressional committee and member staffs are overstuffed with "senior aides" nearly all of whom pull down more than $150,000. Plus, members have dozens of employees back home whose jobs are mostly political.
That leaves the entitlements which cannot be cut so simply. But note that this is the clever excuse deployed by pols of every description. Oh, they say, the real problem is entitlements and all that other stuff (like subsidies to solar panel companiex and casinos) are just chump change. It's a dodge. But you know, so far, it has worked every time.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe pols are playing the odds on this. Just like John Corazine did. And look what happened to him. Hey, when you've got a habit, and the Washington crowd have got it bad, you don't do anything about it until you absolutely have to. They're waiting for the other show to drop, but they and their cronies in the private sector are ready with their lucrative pensions and golden parachutes, and money stashed away in their off-shore accounts and other hiding places their tax attorneys have told them about. They think they'll be first in line for a seat on the escape helicopter when the fall comes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOne of the things that truly bug me is that there are a lot of my friends and family who can't seem to grasp there is any difference between me, a conservative Republican, and the kind of Republicans who can't bring themselves to cutting anything in Congress. They see a guy like McCain or Lindsey Graham, and say, so he's your kind of guy, right?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUugh, my mother is that way, although I think I'm finally convincing her otherwise. She's kind of an apathetic moderate that never votes. Of course she has a lot to say. LOL!
Just keep pounding away and perhaps the light bulb will finally go off.
:-D
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Republicans and Democrats have the same plan as the Greeks: run up an unsustainable debt, then tell your bond holders they will take a 50% (or greater) "haircut", then run up unsustainable debt all over again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy solution to the budget 'crisis'.
1) Fire every federal employee hired since November 2008.)
2) Abolish the Dept. of Education, HHS, Energy and Homeland Security.
3) Inform all remaining agency heads that their new budget will be what they got in 2006.
Don't know if that would be enough, but it's a start.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDis Gusting.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCount me with the 1/16th optimists. America has the very annoying habit of trying the correct thing only after trying all the wrong things first.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIsn't Gary Johnson talking about 40% across the board cuts? Didn't he do similar in New Mexico? He's the only candidate who is talking about spending cuts in any real way. Maybe we should be looking at him more seriously. I wish he was better at selling himself.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUntil we replace the current Republican leadership (Boehner, especially), there's no chance whatsoever for real cutting. Hope things go well about one year from now, else all is pretty much lost.
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