I’m with Joe . . . sort of. People have too much debt. Joe’s graphic of household debt as a percentage of income (below) illustrates this point.

It is unclear how a “permanent monetary expansion,” which Ramesh and Professor Beckworth suggest, would help people to address this debt burden — unless ”permanent monetary expansion” is a delicate way of saying that the Fed should inflate away this debt in a roundabout fashion by trying to inflate the nation’s income and spending.
But why should the Fed do that? Inflation is a gain for borrowers (sometimes). But it’s a loss for lenders (and for investors in debt).
It’s true that lenders to some debtors, and investors in some bonds, should take losses. But those lenders and investors are the ones who invested in housing-related or consumer debt. Why force losses by government decree onto all creditors, rather than allow those select creditors — who put their money in a really bad place — take their losses through normal market forces?
The answer is that more than half a decade after the housing bubble burst, the country still has no efficient market mechanism through which borrowers and lenders can address their bad borrowing and lending decisions.
Debt workouts happen all the time between large-scale borrowers and lenders. But homeowners are large-scale borrowers only together, not apart. They have enough power to kill the economy in aggregate through their reduced spending, but not enough power collectively to bring their lenders to the table.
Politicians view any attempt to breach the subject as a risk that they’ll look like they’re advocating bailouts. But losses aren’t any kind of bailout or moral hazard as long as they stay in the private sector. That is, lenders and borrowers alike would have to take their losses — without lenders getting a new rescue from Uncle Sam.
People laugh at Europe because their sovereign-debt workout process is so unwieldy, with each country having to run to its own Parliament for approval of seemingly every line change. But at least Europe has admitted the obvious. Greece can’t pay back its debt, at least not without unacceptably low growth for years or decades.
You don’t hear many people make the argument that Greece must pay back all of its debt, no matter what, as some sort of object lesson in public and personal shame. It’s pretty well accepted that Greece’s lenders took a risk and should be accountable for that risk.
Nor do you hear, say, Canada crying, “Hey, a bailout of Greece is not fair, because we Canadians were responsible and always pay back all of our sovereign debt!” Such an argument would be absurd. Canada, of course, is just as free as Greece to borrow too much and then to renegotiate that debt down with its creditors. But Canada doesn’t, because default carries real costs.
You hear these arguments all the time in the American mortgage market. Yet it’s not that different.
Unless America comes to grips with its private-sector debt burden, I doubt that either looser monetary policy or fiscal stimulus will do the trick (although some infrastructure investment is necessary from an infrastructure standpoint, and wouldn’t hurt jobs-wise, either).
— Nicole Gelinas is a contributing editor to the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal.
Once again: Huh?
Small scale lenders and borrowers resolve things all the time through bankruptcy. Homeowners who want to default on their payments can easily do so, just stop paying and let the bank foreclose. Then they lose the house. It's when the government intervenes to prevent THAT from happening that people (accurately) call bailout.
As far as whether Canada will ever screw over its creditors, it kind of depends on whether Greece gets away with it, doesn't it? Still, sovereign debt is a different issue. Loan money to the government and you know it can shaft you any time it wants. Loan money to a person buying a house and you think you'll at least get the house if they default.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"But why should the Fed do that? Inflation is a gain for borrowers (sometimes). But it’s a loss for lenders (and for investors in debt)."
It's also a huge loss for people trying to save money for their futures and their childrens' futures, and to stay out of debt. Otherwise known as "responsible people".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, people have too much debt. And they're finally deleveraging, which of course stunts consumer demand. However, Joe's claim that cheap loans do "nothing" is just silly; households are not only paying down debt, they're restructuring, refinancing and consolidating, thereby accelerating the deleveraging cycle and freeing up income for spending rather than debt servicing. Others are taking advantage of low rates and low housing prices to upgrade their housing.
Rather than focusing strictly on debt-to-income, look at obligations as a percentage of disposable income. After peaking at a high of nearly 19%, they're back down to 16%. That represents a real increase in buying power and, over time, will translate to a real (and sustainable!) increase in consumer spending.
See: External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMs. Gelinas notes, "[M]ore than half a decade after the housing bubble burst, the country still has no efficient market mechanism through which borrowers and lenders can address their bad borrowing and lending decisions."
Economist and mutual fund manager John Hussman has long proposed* establishing a market mechanism that could allow banks and borrowers to recognize/handle the losses associated with underwater mortgages. A major component of his proposal involves exchanging part of the principal of underwater mortgages for "property appreciation rights." These rights would be administered by the federal government, but with minimal federal expenditure. There are probably alternatives to Hussman's proposed solution, but it would seem to be a step in the right direction.
*See "On the mechanics of Property Appreciation Rights (PARs)" in External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe are conservatives - right???? How about this for a really, really silly idea - Personal Responsiblity, Delayed gratification, Constant personal improvement to increase job skills and marketability and going without until something can be afforded?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI paid off my credit cards several years ago after struggling with that for many years. I now have NO credit cards and I refuse to buy anything unless my budget shows I can absolutely afford it. My car is almost 20 years old and it isn't the nicest looking ride on the block. I would love to be driving a new Mustang, but I won't until I can afford it.
Get rid of cell phones, internet, cable TV, trips to Caribou, eating out, etc until you can afford them. Take a night class or go back to school if you can take the time (sometimes you have no choice, but make sure you go back for something that will pay). Employers sometimes pay 80% of tuition and books.
Conservatism is supposed to be about self reliance and standing on your own two feet. Throw these bums out of office, seriously cut federal spending and get involved in your local government.