The U.S. labor market continues to make progress and once again shows, without a shadow of a doubt, that the U.S. economy is not in recession. Including upward revisions for August and September, nonfarm payrolls increased 182,000, almost doubling the consensus expected gain of 95,000. Civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that factors in small business start-ups, increased 277,000. This gain helped push down the unemployment rate to 9 percent.
A year ago the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent. During this time, nonfarm jobs have grown at an average monthly rate of 152,000 while civilian employment has grown at a rate of 140,000 per month. In other words, we don’t need 150,000 jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. Because of the aging of the labor force, 150,000 jobs per month is more than enough to push down the jobless rate.
Very quietly, without fanfare, private-sector payrolls have grown by 1.8 million in the past year, while the work week has lengthened and hourly cash wages are up 1.8 percent. Total hours worked are up 1.7 percent in the past year. A 9 percent unemployment rate means the labor market is still far from operating at its full potential, but it is moving in the right direction as are other data. October chain store sales were up 3.7 percent versus a year ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. This includes luxury department store sales (up 4.5 percent) and wholesale clubs, excluding fuel (up 7 percent). Meanwhile, compared to a year ago, core railcar loadings are up 5.8 percent, steel production is up 10.3 percent, and hotel occupancy rates are up 6.8 percent.
Again, there are no signs of recession. Instead, plenty of signs of continued growth.
Are you sure you're posting on the correct site?
This is the "always trash the President" site.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is the "always trash the President" site.
Actually, you are selling NRO a bit short. This occasionally is the "trash statist control freaks" site, and those occasions are the times that justify my continued participation. The fact that Mr. Obama is a statist control freak should not be ignored.
Captcha phrase: "Get a Better Game". Good advice Mr. Dude.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat time is it boys and girls?
Time for more taxes!!!!!
Recently I was wondering why we try to make the economy business-friendly when times are hard, then jack up the business taxes when times improve. Don't people always need jobs? Shouldn't we always be encouraging business to grow and thrive, to provide those jobs? Might even result in people being willing to loosen immigration restrictions, to encourage more workers to come in.
Also, the aging of the work force may not have a continued positive effect. Social Security and Medicare are in trouble, and working for an employer who provided medical insurance makes increasing sense. If Obamacare is repealed, employers might keep offering medical insurance. And SS is still going to be in trouble, either way.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Including upward revisions for August and September, nonfarm payrolls increased 182,000, almost doubling the consensus expected gain of 95,000."
Isn't this just a touch of moving the goalposts. My understanding of the "consensus expected gain" is that it is for the current month alone, and is not meant to "include upward revisions" for previous months. So to compare the total of October job growth plus prior month revisions to the expectation is disingenuous.
This comes from any number of reporters telling me this morning that the 80,000 October numnber was "slightly below expectations" - if the expectations account for prior month adjustments as well, why wasn't anybody reporting this "good news" you speak of?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe "good news" is in the (slight) downtick of the unemployment rate (from 9.1% to 9%) and the 2.5% growth in the third quarter. It's as good a news as anyone has a right to expect, at the moment, since it means a double dip is unlikely. The Fed predicted unemployment would stay at 9.1% until next year and is likely to be at an anemic 8.4% by the end of 2012. A lot depends on Europe, right now, of course.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"In other words, we don’t need 150,000 jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. Because of the aging of the labor force, 150,000 jobs per month is more than enough to push down the jobless rate."
Think hard on that. I see absolutely no reason to celebrate.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBingo. Essentially, the unemployment rate is going down because more people are retiring and are subsequently becoming tax-revenue consumers rather than tax-revenue providers. How is that good?
Incidentally, I can't remember who it was, but someone - perhaps even a contributor here at NRO - predicted more than a year ago this very phenomenon. He/She didn't think it was going to be good either.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo what happens when the SS tax cut of 2% ends? What happens when deficits of 1.3T need to be brought under control either with spending cuts (which means less gov't jobs or less gov't demand for services or less gov't transfer payments...any way you cut it someone is getting their paycheck or their welfare check cut) or tax increases?
People say the economy is bad and that proves the stimulus and deficits DON'T work. It doesn't prove that at all, because you have no idea how bad things would be WITHOUT the stimulus. Cain says he can balance the budget in a year. Well, when they tried someething far less draconian in Greece, how'd that work out?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNRO needs to be more careful about letting the DNC post advertisements on the site.
The average American does not care about "core rail car loadings" or luxury department store sales. They care about the unemployment and underemployment rates, which have stayed stubbornly high for over three years. For ordinary people, the recession has not ended, and we shouldn't help our opponents by pretending that we're in a "recovery."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA lot of the ads come up based on your own web activity, so if you're seeing DNC ads, it's because your own activity indicated you'd be receptive to them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSorry, that was poorly phrased sarcasm. I was referring to Bob Stein's post.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHappy! Happy! Joy! Joy!
Obama will be re-elected!!!
(Sarcasm.)
ObamaCare For Ever!!!
(Sarcasm.)
One of our liberal trolls said it best: Obama is a very lucky man.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHooray! And here I thought we were struggling. Happy days are here again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFOUR MORE YEARS!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFOUR MORE YEARS!
Now I can buy that new monocle and top hat. Thanks, Mr. Obama!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'll bet there's a flywheel built into the unemployment rate, given the way it's calculated. As prospects for finding a job improve, won't more people re-enter the labor market, driving up the denominator?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAt this rate of improvement it will only take seven years to get back to 4% unemployment! I think the case to suspend elections are declare Obama dictator for life is pretty clear. Viva Obama!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFirst things first folks. Let's get people back to work. More working means more people carrying the water. Those retirees are retiring no matter what. So, more tax payers reduces the pressure to raise taxes. More taxpayers means more people interested in less government spending. More jobs means less welfare. America first, Obama's not making any friends with his policies, and the economy is sputtering along despite him. And deficit pressure is not going away, not with 1.8% wage growth.
Stagnant or lowering wages (1.8% hourly wage growth barely keeps up with inflation) is not a good thing. Prices have not been allowed to drop as they should. The Fed is inflating us *to* 1.8%, not working to keep inflation below 2%. So that 1.8% wage growth buying power is eroded by the fact that prices probably should be 8-9% lower. Housing is down, but not as far as it should be. Fuel is much higher than it should be, and will go up if the economy strengthens. Each time we've hit that $4 "red line" the economy has stalled like an airplane flying too steep. A sane energy policy would do more to rev up the economy than lowering tax rates I think.
Anyway, I'm glad people are going back to work, such as it is. I have a software PM working for me part-time (pay is really light) just so she can have something to do. I pray for her every day that she will find a steady job.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama seems to agree with you about the energy policy. There's more domestic drilling going on in the US now than at any other time. In fact, we are no longer getting the majority of our oil from the Middle East, which is a vital, yet under-reported trend.
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US oil production has been declining for decades. The mild current uptick began during the Bush administration (2005), but I won't hold my breath for Obama to "blame Bush". Production is still well below where it should be, and oil-shale rich states like Colorado are faced with huge amounts of Federal red tape. ANWR is still not open. And it has only been in the last few days that drilling permits in the Gulf have been issued since Obama put the moratorium in place. It'll take a year or more to develop the wells and get the rigs in place.
But, hey, thanks for calling attention to Obama's attempt a re-electioneering ever since Democrats killed his Jobs Bill in the Senate over job-killing drilling/oil taxes and regulations. Funny how Democracy works!
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