Results from new poll of GOP primary voters from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling: Newt Gingrich (28 percent), Herman Cain (25 percent), Mitt Romney (18 percent), Rick Perry (6 percent), Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul (5 percent), Jon Huntsman (3 percent), Rick Santorum and Gary Johnson (1 percent).
One particularly interesting note from PPP: “There’s reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain. Among Cain’s supporters 73 percent have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21 percent with a negative one.”
Fifty-four percent of GOP voters view the accusations against Cain as “mostly false,” while 24 percent say they are “mostly true.”
"If Cain continues to fade ..."
Fade? He's at 25%, well above Romney. Where is PPP's evidence of his "fade"?
And what do they make of the fact that the "fading" candidate is 7 points ahead of the "front-runner"? Did they comment on that? Or on the fact that "front-runner" is in THIRD place?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn PPP's last poll, Cain had been at 30.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo, he's at 25% now, with a third candidate moving upward? That's hardly newsworthy.
Or, at least, it a lot less newsworthy than the presumptive "front runner" coming in third below 20%.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLittle surprised that Cain still hangs in with 25%. I think the CNN poll is closer to the mark at 14%. Other recent polls have shown Hormonal Herm in the teens.
PPP does tend to go overboard on The Latest Big Thing. So it's really not too surprising that Gingrich has shot all the way to the top of their poll. CNN is a little less volatile and has him still second...but only a (gray?) hair behind Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat would seem to undermine Herman remaining at 25%, if PPP is merely devoted to the latest big thing.
The allegations against Herman are the latest big thing, bigger than Newt's recovery, which was brought about shortly after Herman's latest big thing.
Actually, the problem with PPP is that their samples do not at all reflect the society whose political preferences they seek to gauge.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou're talking about that Romney guy--the one who's in third behind a guy that the MSM has been attacking 24/7 for the last few weeks? Didn't he come in third last time, too?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy the hell didn't we nominate Tim Pawlenty? Compared to Cain, Gingrich and Romeny, Tim Pawlenty looks like an angel. What was his biggest deficit, again? That he was boring? That's it? Obama must be laughing his backside off! Now we have to choose between a guy who dumped his wife on her death bed, a serial harrasser and a dude who passed his own version of Obamacare. Yuk! I think I'm gonna hurl! Wake me up in 2016.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNope, we did not nominate Tim Pawlenty because he quit before the nomination process began.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Republican Party didn't nominate Tim Pawlenty because the first primary vote wasn't for seven months.
But no one forced Pawlenty out of the presidential race. He gave up after placing third on a straw poll that — considering who the winner was — doesn't seem to reflect present realities.
Round One and Pawlenty went belly-up. He isn't just boring, he's gutless. Conservatives were done a favor.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTim Pawlenty is the BEST example of the danger of listening to the media.
And also the best example of just how much they don't know, and that they are really not experts at anything except being consistently wrong.
So, for those reasons alone, I am forever grateful to Pawlenty.
But, for clarification, the reason the media deemed him unworthy of even campaigning for the job was his unwillingness to attack Romney at the first of 150,000 debates.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePPP polls are always good for a laugh, if nothing else.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBy the way, after all the latest numbers are folded into the RCP averages, the results...
Romney 22.0
Cain 21.3
Gingrich 17.9
Perry 9.9
Paul 7.3
Bachmann 4.1
Santorum 1.9
Huntsman 1.3
Recent trends are down for Romney and Cain, with Cain falling really fast. Gingrich is climbing very quickly. Everybody else is flatlining over the past few weeks. External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHerman Cain should send a thank you note to perky Sharon Bialek and Gloria Allred, attorney-to-politically-expedient-victims-willing to-lie-to-benefit-the-Democratic-Party, for this polling result. People weren't sure about the sexual harassment charges against Mr. Cain until Sharon and Gloria showed up. Once that happened, advantage Cain.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCheck the RCP averages. Hormonal Herm isn't sending out too many thank you notes to anybody lately. He's falling off a cliff and Gingrich is gaining on him fast.
At least PPP still has Cain in the twenties. The other three most recent polls show him in the teens and sinking quick.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSpeaking as a liberal, I was terribly disappointed not to get my dream candidate (Sarah Palin)... but on reflection, I believe Newt might be even more fun. I'm thinking of sending him some money.
GO NEWT!!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is the third national poll where Romney has fallen below 20% and well into the teens.
Cain has remained much stronger than anticpated (still well above 20% in recent polls) while Newt is surging.
Interesting...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Cain has remained much stronger than anticpated (still well above 20% in recent polls) while Newt is surging."
You're right about Newt. But in three of the four latest polls, Herm is down in the teens. The very latest poll puts him at 14%.
Whenever a poll breaks out gender splits, they show that Cain's numbers among GOP women are tumbling. Even PPP, by far the most favorable recent result for Cain, shows him at 20% among GOP women (vs. 29% among Republican men).
Somewhat surprisingly, PPP shows Newt doing better among Republican women than men, 31% vs. 26%. Seems like an oddball result to me. PPP specializes in those.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRCP has averaged a total of 7 national polls since the allegations against Cain broke; and Cain poll average with the most recent polls included is 21.3%.
In 4 of these 7 polls, Cain has outpolled Romney, including in one released today.
Since November 1st; Romney has fallen 5.5% in the poll average, a statistically significant drop.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Since November 1st; Romney has fallen 5.5% in the poll average, a statistically significant drop."
What poll average? In the RCP average (the 7 most recent polls), Romney has fallen 2 points since Nov 1, from 24 to 22 (although he also regained the lead during that time, since Cain fell more).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe thing the "Romney is inevitable" argument keeps glossing over is the fact that he's never gone over 25% in any national poll.
Even with a three-way split, you can't win the nomination with 25%.
And who among supporters of other candidates is saying that Romney is their "second choice" other than the 1% who support Huntsman?
Mitt is simply too "moderate" for the national Republican party. (This is partly image -- no matter what statements he makes today, there will always be a more liberal position from his past to compare it to. Like John Kerry, he was in favor of things before he was against them. That's a losing message in either party.)
The bulk of conservative voters are trying to decide which of the other, more conservative candidates they like better. I can't see them deciding at some point "oh well, better surrender to the inevitability of Mitt Romney."
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