The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced today that job losses in the first quarter of 2011 hit a record low. In the first quarter, employers eliminated the fewest jobs since the BLS began keeping track two decades ago. Job losses are now one-sixth below their pre-recession levels. Workers with jobs are less likely to lose them now than before the recession began.
This sounds absurd. At the start of the recession, the news was filled with stories of companies going bankrupt. The unemployment rate stands at 9 percent. Record-low job losses seem impossible.

They are not. Unemployment remains high because of another record announced today: Hiring at new businesses also hit a new low. Only 660,000 workers were hired at new business establishments — 27 percent fewer than when the recession began. Overall job creation, both at existing firms and at startups, has similarly fallen one-sixth since the recession began.
The economy has a job-creation problem. Entrepreneurs and investors are starting or expanding fewer businesses. Consequently, they need fewer new workers, making it very difficult for the unemployed to find work. If job creation had returned to normal at the recession’s end, unemployment would have returned to normal levels by now.
America needs more risk-taking and entrepreneurship. We need a climate that favors investment and business growth. Unfortunately, with Congress talking tax increases and the administration increasing regulation, this does not seem terribly likely.
— James Sherk is senior policy analyst in labor economics at the Heritage Foundation.
Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop: spending cuts, tax rises or a catastrophe (not that $1tr in additional taxes isn't a catastrophe).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, a huge part of the problem is that banks are no longer loaning to small businesses. Hard to expand when you can't get access to credit to do so.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Well, a huge part of the problem is that banks are no longer loaning to small businesses. "
I'm neither a banker nor an economist, but even I can understand that it's a better business decision for banks to borrow at the Fed window for almost nothing and buy Treasuries with that borrowed money for more than something.
If you want to see more lending then raise interest rates. Yes, it's counter-intuitive, I know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGreat Post!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSame old talking points.
It is ALWAYS taxes and regulation.
The dishonesty is palpable. Lack of sales (i.e. lack of demand) is NEVER the problem. All that businesses care about is taxes and regulation. They don't need any customers. Just as long as they don't have to pay tax or experience any regulatory burden on $0 in sales, they will be looking to expand like crazy!
Except marginal tax rates have historically been much higher than they are now. And small businesses (where the bulk of new hiring is likely to come from) are exempt from much of the regulation that big businesses are always lobbying against. The facts are incredibly inconvenient for conservatives and their "arguments," but they keep on going.
There are some places where we should consider regulatory reform. For example, MAYBE it is possible to streamline the FDA drug approval process. Maybe it is possible to just as effectively protect the environment in a more cost effective way. But to act like it is primarily tax rates or regulation that is holding back hiring rates contradicts history and surveys of small business concerns.
What this is really about is that conservatives don't want to take responsibility for both creating the current economic mess and blocking any attempts to fix it. It is conservatives who are holding back economic growth by blocking stimulus due to their dogmatic dislike of government.
Not to worry. Conservatives will always make whatever fact free absurd arguments happens to serve their political agenda in the moment. Complaints about taxes and regulation are nothing more than a shiny ball that distracts from the real problem. That is, Republican politicians who are determined to block efforts to get the economy going again.
Double dip recession anyone? "Brought fresh to your door by do nothing Republican politicians." (TM) Lost decade anyone? Enjoy!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Except marginal tax rates have historically been much higher than they are now"
We have never operated in the kind of global economy that we have to compete in today. America offers the highest corporate tax rate in the G20. Can it be any wonder why companies would look elsewhere to expand?
"And small businesses (where the bulk of new hiring is likely to come from) are exempt from much of the regulation that big businesses are always lobbying against. "
This is just ridiculously uninformed. Have you ever tried to build anything in this country? I don't care if you're a one-man construction company. If you're in an "environmentally sensitive area", then you have to conform to the same regulations as General Electric.
Moreover, for the small business owner it's even worse because he doesn't have an entire legal department dedicated to regulatory compliance.
"Brought fresh to your door by do nothing Republican politicians."
So, if I can get this straight: Our last recession had NOTHING to do with the Democrats that controlled both houses of Congress for four years, but our looming new recession has everything to do with Republicans holding one of the Congressional chambers. Is that about the sum of it?
Yeah, good luck with that. I'm sure it will work for Obama as well as it worked for McCain.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseControl of the House of Representatives is all that is necessary to prevent any and all action to solve our economic problems, as Republican politicians have demonstrated.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat party was in control of the House 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYour point is relevant only for the years 2009 and 2010 when Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress.
But I actually agree with you.
Democrats should have moved on the economy and jobs before healthcare. And they should not have dragged out the healthcare debate as it became evident that getting Republicans to agree was an impossibility. (And this was very evident early on, at least to me.)
The first move of Democrats should have been to end the filibuster in the Senate. It was pure hubris for Democrats to assume that there would be no defections among blue dogs. With "friends" like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson, who needs enemies?
Then they should have passed a massive stimulus. Something in the 3 trillion dollar range, with no tax cut component would have been a good start. Unemployment benefits should have been reformed to require most recipients to receive training in exchange for benefits, so that our economy can be more competitive going forward. Also, if they are not receiving training, make people receiving benefits work, whether for a non-profit or for profit enterprise. In this way, they gain contacts and also actual job skills for when the economy improves. Also, offer temporary wage subsidies so people can keep their existing jobs (like they do in Germany) so that private sector companies engage in fewer layoffs. In many cases, this could cost the same or less than unemployment benefits.
It is quite clear that President Obama made quite a few mistakes given the crisis he faced. Instead of overestimating the amount of stimulus that was needed and offering overly optimistic projections concerning the economy (that turned out to be a ripe target for mockery_, he should have overestimated the amount of stimulus that was needed and offered a more pessimistic view. If things turn out to be better than expected, the stimulus could have been gradually withdrawn, so that the economy could gradually transition.
Also, another huge error was giving the banks bailouts without conditions. Instead of requiring the banks to lend like healthy financial institutions would, they allowed the banks to hoard bailout money to cover themselves. This was great for the banks but bad for the economy. If you are going to bail out the banks, at least add enough conditions to make them really wish they didn't need to take the money. If at all possible, make banks that get bailouts go through the bankruptcy where they hopefully can restructure in a way that punishes existing executives. This would help deal with moral hazard problems.
Could the Obama administration have done a lot better? Absolutely. The Obama and Democratic Senators made a lot of unforced errors. The biggest one being a failure to abolish the filibuster and institute a more aggressive agenda. But pointing that out doesn't help us in our current situation.
The question is this. Who is CURRENTLY blocking any moves to fix the economy? The answer is Republican politicians. I am hopeful that they will be punished, although it is quite clear that they have certain structural advantages after doing so well in 2010 which allowed them to control redistricting in many states (protecting the House) and that Democrats aren't in as strong of a position going forward in terms of making gains in the Senate. Still, as people become more aware that it is Republican politicians who are preventing progress on our economic issues, I think it is quite possible to flip the House, Republican-favored redistricting or not.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh, and another thing.
I am pretty darn sure that it isn't government regulation that is holding back small construction companies.
Try a huge glut of both residential and commercial properties in most parts of the country and not enough people eligible for loans to buy them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs always, David remains utterly conviced that the wrong things he believes must be true.
For a guy who's never spent any time outside a university classroom, he sure claims to know everything there is about the real world.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Same old talking points."
Deliciously ironic!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat we need is more homos and more regulations to stop global warming. Quite evidently. And more money for Freddie Mac-Daddy Gingrich.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOne of the key insights of supply-side economics is that lack of demand is rarely the problem - barriers to meeting that demand is. Lower taxes and lighter regulations make it easier to meet the demand that actually exists. In other words, they allow the market to do what it's supposed to do. Demand shifts around, and businesses need to also. Taxes and regulation are like quickrete.
On the other hand, the problem with so-called "stimulus" programs and other massive government interventions is that it prevents businesses from meeting genuine needs and solving genuine problems, and then tries to band-aid it by goosing demand for existing services, which isn't permanent anyway. So: businesses can't rely on such demand, and it's even harder for them to pivot to where the real demand is. Hence, there are not many jobs being created, relatively speaking.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWow, where did you study basic econ 101?
Adam Smith defined the market for all time: supply and demand.
And you believe that the nearly impoverished middle class 's inability to buy (i.e., lack of demand) is not a problem?
You cannot have a functioning economy without purchasers. GOP policies have enriched that tiny few who don't need to buy anything, except a few baubles.
Chickens are on their way to roost. Bummer that your trickle down theories turned out to be so wrong, wouldn't you agree now?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe EPA has proposed shutting down power plants in Texas that will remove almost 1/3 of the total capacity. Think rates won't go up?
Gas prices are going up. Mandated costs for Obamacare are coming down the line. Shipping costs have increased, which increases wholesale prices and squeezes margins. Etc. Etc.
The business owner is faced with one increase in expenses after another, and you're right, reduced demand.
Unfortunately, the problem and solution are much more complicated than just replacing one set of talking points with another.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLack of demand is caused by high taxes and regulations.
In your mind, the answer to every problem is more govt spending.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh good, another economic lecture from the guy who believes college should be free for everyone. Thanks, Welks! Up Twinkles!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSame old talking points.
It is ALWAYS lack of sales (i.e. lack of demand).
The dishonesty is palpable. Taxes and regulations are NEVER the problem.
The reason consumers aren't spending is that they don't have the disposable income. The reason they don't have disposable income is because they lost their jobs or, more likely, haven't gotten a raise in 3 years. Every dollar a company spends on taxes or regulatory compliance is a dollar that can't be spent giving employees raises. The answer to "Raise my taxes" is "Give your employees a raise with that money instead." That would directly advance the stated lefty goal of getting consumers to spend more.
The problem is the weak hiring market and the reason the hiring market is weak is not a lack of consumer demand. The other Lefty Talking Point you conveniently left out is that corporations are hoarding cash, which obviously means the SOMEBODY is spending to buy their products. The reason that hoarded cash isn't invested in new hiring is the uncertainty in the tax and regulatory environment. Quick, Mr. Welker, exactly how much will Obamacare raise the cost of an employee for the next ten years?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt seems sensible to tax the wealthy who currently seem so content keeping money on the sidelines. The government can put that money to work in the economy or, at the very least, pay some of these bills we've racked up over the past few decades. Am I the only person who doesn't want to pay for our unfunded wars with Social Security and Medicare cuts?
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