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Sequestration Won’t Change the Path We’re On

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: We shouldn’t fear the spending cuts under sequestration. This chart once again puts the Budget Control Act’s sequester into perspective by illustrating its effect on public debt, using data from the CBO’s projections of debt held by the public over fiscal years 2012 to 2021. 

As you can see, the automatic sequester cuts do very little to the overall trend in the growth of debt. Under current law, according to CBO projections, public debt will reach nearly $14.54 trillion by 2021. Under sequestration, it is projected to reach $14.38 trillion, a rather minute difference of $153 billion.

The United States was downgraded by S&P in August for failing to take the steps necessary to change our financial path. Unfortunately, sequestration cuts wouldn’t change much about our march to more and more debt. 

But here is what makes me particularly grumpy: The American people can’t even count on this tiny debt reduction, because it is unlikely that Congress and the president will let the sequester cuts be implemented — in other words, you can pretty much forget about the red bars. Of course, even the blue bars are rosy projections of our debt levels, since they assume that the spending cuts in the health-care bill will happen and that Congress will let the spending caps in the BCA work, among other optimistic expectations.

Now, it’s time for Congress to get serious about overspending and get to work (hope springs eternal). This failure gives lawmakers an opportunity to do the right thing and implement the fiscal reforms that could change the path we are on: That’s entitlement and tax reforms. And of course, because I always want more, I would appreciate if they could get moving on institutional reform too.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   14

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Matt Teason
   11/21/11 17:11

"Of course, even the blue bars are rosy projections of our debt levels..." Yes, the CBO is great at 10-year forecasting. In 2001, US federal debt was projected to be $818 billion in 2011. Seriously??? Why do we have the CBO? These types of super-errors seem to make for worse policy than if the CBO didn't project at all.

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Bryson Christhilf
   11/22/11 11:38

How would anyone know?The budget when there is one is a fantasy.Anyon can find a way to spend anytime,{riders on unrelated bills Etc.}Until some discipline is put into the spending proces there is no hope.

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Tyson
   11/22/11 11:49

You, mean they projected much lower debt before huge tax cuts, Medicare part D, and two wars we decided to finance rather than pay for.

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lichau
   11/22/11 11:53

What I find amusing is the "non-partisan" prefix to the CBO. Always there. Always a lie.

"Douglas W. Elmendorf is the eighth Director of CBO. His term began on January 22, 2009."

The first thing that any POTUS does is replace the CBO Director. Non partisan? Peel me a grape.

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lichau
   11/22/11 11:55

What I find amusing is the "non-partisan" prefix to the CBO. Always there. Always a lie.

"Douglas W. Elmendorf is the eighth Director of CBO. His term began on January 22, 2009."

The first thing that any POTUS does is replace the CBO Director. Non partisan? Peel me a grape.

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   11/21/11 17:39

The CBOs numbers also assume that the Bush tax cuts will expire for all brackets, raising an additional $370-400 billion/yr, that the threshold for the Alternative Minimum Tax won't be raised, and that GDP will grow at 3.6%. Rod Serling would blush.

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   11/21/11 18:26

Among the things that make me grumpy, is that the chart does not include all the debt that is subject to the debt limit.

It makes the situation look better than it is.

It is yet more of the Cee Arh A Pee and Bee Ess socalled accounting of the CBO.

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Budget Cutter
   11/21/11 18:26

I hope the sequester is implemented and the GOP does more cutting. The pressure to cut will return soon when its shown that these cuts don't really reduce spending. The Tea Party will be back.

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   11/21/11 18:51

"Now, it’s time for Congress to get serious about overspending and get to work. "

Madame, after all that has been said and done, what inclination do you have that congress has any intention whatsoever of "getting to work?"

There has been no budget in 3 years, and the game of politics has so obviously trumped any sense of serving the public trust that articles of this nature are laughable.

We are long past the "let's find a new way to compromise" period, and well into the "pre-revolutionary" period.
It's coming.

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mz6yx6
   11/22/11 13:41

I think this chart is way off. It isn't 2012 yet and we are already over 15 Trillion in debt. Now 5 Trillion of that is held by foreign countries. So, I am not sure how the chart relates to the US National Debt.

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valleyforge1
   11/22/11 14:55

This is public debt. It doesn't include debt to intragovernmental entities like the trust funds.

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gsoverdrive
   11/22/11 14:03

Doesnt the U.S. debt currently exceed 15 billion dollars?

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gsoverdrive
   11/22/11 14:04

*** I meant 15 trillion

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zack aa
   11/23/11 02:37

Time for Tea Party adherents (and any sane OWS types) to consider pushing for state by state ratifications of the original first amendment "Article the First" that passed congress in 1789. It would dramatically increase the number of repesentatives, and dilute the power held by individuals in congress today. Not a guarantee of budgetary constraint but with five to ten times the reps, individual seats would be cheaper to campaign for and accountability might improve.

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