I really don’t get why everybody is running for the fainting couch over Romney’s $10,000 bet. Perhaps we’re just a particularly debased bunch of no-account road gamblers, but my friends and I bet each other $10,000 all the time, and have been doing so since we were teenagers. There are two scenarios under which the bets usually come. The first is that the determinant of the bet is so far off (e.g., a typical bet in the questionable circles I move in would be taking an over-under on the number of games the New York Mets will win in the next ten years) that the combined chances of the bet being forgotten about, runaway inflation greatly devaluing its outcome, or one/both of the bettors coming into a great fortune in the interim are sufficiently high to make it worthwhile. The other scenario is that the person offering the bet is absolutely sure he’s correct and wants to make a point of it to the idiot doubting him. Examples of this scenario in my milieu include “Yes, David Lynch did direct Dune” and “No, you couldn’t swim the widest Manhattan-Queens span of the East River at midnight, even if I gave you a month to train and a top-flight wetsuit: You’re not a strong swimmer, it’s close to a mile wide, and it’s a tidal estuary with a shifting current that could easily carry you out to sea. Besides, it’s really dirty.”
It seems clear it was the latter premise that inspired Romney to make his bet. If you propose a bet knowing with absolute certainty you’re going to win it, why wouldn’t you wager as much as you could, especially if the point of your doing so is actually to make the other guy back off? (I have found a really effective way of doing this is betting a large but very specific amount of money and one that the other party believes it is plausible you could produce. I.e., betting someone a million dollars might be dismissed, but betting someone $7,800 is likely to give pause.)
But lets leave all this aside, even. Why is this a Romney “gaffe”? Politicians lie all the time. Indeed we expect them to, even sort of want them to sometimes. But we expect them to lie about things like their past positions and current principles, their motives, their opponents’ motives, the happiness of their marriage, the existence of extramarital activities, the quality of their relationship with Party leadership, the sincerity of their religious beliefs, etc. Do we expect politicians to lie about their net worth? If so we really should have nominated Trump — he’s got it down to a science. But everybody knows Mitt Romney is rich. Is he supposed to pretend he isn’t? Is he “out of touch” any time he lets slip that he didn’t spend his productive years as a longshoreman? I was barely out of swaddling clothes when George H.W. Bush had his supermarket scanner “gaffe,” but looking back at it I can’t for the life of me think of why the electorate felt it important that the well-to-do, geriatric leader of the free world know his way around the latest technology at the stop-and-shop. If Mitt walked around with a platinum scepter and a coat of dodo feathers I could see calling that a gaffe, but things have gotten silly if one of the things we’re looking for in a candidate is his ability to consistently condescend to us about the basic, verifiable facts of his existence, just to make us feel like he’s “one of us.”
Totally agree. I commented in a previous thread that a large majority of peoople having a case of the vapors over Mitt's bet, using his own money, won't even think about condeming Michelle for already spending $10 million of real money on vacations, other peoples money by the way--namely the taxpayer's bucks.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis.
The NYT will have you believe we cannot possibly vote for someone who is so flippant about the value of $10,000.
So we need to elect the guy who flushes $550 million down the Solyndra toilet.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"I really don’t get why everybody is running for the fainting couch over Romney’s $10,000 bet. "
This is a fine question as far as it goes. The real perversity is that the political class and the commentariat is under the impression that they should be taken so seriously that each and every utterance of their camp should be taken to heart, analyzed microscopically, weighed in every available dimension.
That, folks, is an attitude that cannot be adequately conveyed by the term "hubris". Have we simply lost our moorings, or is the truth darker, that we have as a nation made a god of government?
CAPTCHA: "shakers and movers"
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree that it is not a huge "gaff" but it is just one more piece of data that voters subconsciously process in trying to figure out who someone is. It just adds to his general awkwardness with people on the campaign trail and not being able to connect with them. (Corporations are people, I'm running for President for Pete's sake", transporting his dog on this car roof, posing with money sticking out of his pockets when at Bain Capital, etc.).
It has added to the narrative that Romney is some rich phony that is just saying what is expedient at the moment because he so desperately wants to be President. True or not, I think that is why he can't get above 25% in the polls with Republicans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm my corporation and my corporation is me. I pay my taxes through my corporation, and when my corporation says or does something, it is representing me. According to the Census Bureau, 60%+ of incorporated firms employ 4 or fewer employees. This is a favorite joke of the Left, but a smart candidate understands this this is still an entrepreneurial nation, and the primary method people use to represent themselves (individuals, people) is the corporation in its many forms.
Romney can't poll over 25% because he is not a conservative and us not running as one. If the GOP disliked rich blue-bloods, they would not have nominated the Bushes. The Bushes won by convincing Conservatives they were conservative enough. And in W's case because if his strong Christian faith. (which explains the sudden Romney/family image work...a real strength which Romney has heretofore taken for granted, or he fell into that "moderate" trap that religious faith is a political loser)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDaniel,
You are right! Romney is not one of us; economically, socially, religiously or politically. He is an alien to the average American and the electorate is tired of having an alien rule over them with an arrogant effete tone. Liberal or "conservative" is irrelevant right now, it's all about a President not acting like they were born for the job.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't know anything about "fainting couches" but making jokes about 10K bets when part of your campaign's theme is to emphasize what a lousy economy we're in and how you'd lower unemployment is a gaffe. It's not a huge one, but a gaffe it is.
Hyperbole about scepters and Dodo feathers don't help Daniel make his case, they only add weight to the conclusion that it's Mitt's supporters who are overreacting in this case. I think this stings a bit more for Romney than it would for others, precisely because his campaign strategy has a "playing not to lose" feel about it.
If Romney wanted to make it go away, he might have said something along the lines of "I made a mistake ...I should have bet him a hundred grand" or better yet "a million." If he and his supporters would let this roll off his back it would show a looser side of him, and a la the Harrison Ford Patriot Games presidential advice, not give reporters anywhere to go. In other words, show he's comfortable being rich while emphasizing that it was a rhetorical kind of bet.
Just arguing the case though doesn't work for Mitt. It makes him look defensive.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou know it's a gaffe when people write 600-word blog posts defending it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAmen to that.
It seems everything political steategists do in recent elections is designed around appealing to people who define themselves as Independents, many of whom swerve this way and that with any announced sway of the wind. This too often leaves people who actually have convictions left alone with them as the political strategists, their candidates, and the lines forming behind them race to get ahead of the herd.
Romney is wealthy and elite and that "class" is who the Democrats have been attacking as unnamed phantom since Obama's election. Certainly the Romney campaign is aware of that and one would think that the candidate would take it into account in his own self-discipline. He should know his political weaknesses and avoid enhancing them for his opponents.
The bet was stupid. Proferring his hand to seal the deal made it look like betting $10,000 - for real - comes easily to him. It was foolish.
Perry was wise to respond that he wasn't a betting man, especially in view of the fact that he'd just witnessed another foolishly gamble his own candidacy away in a single unguarded moment.
Newt didn't catch it right away because he'd have done the same.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI hadn't thought of it until now, but Diane is absolutely right. It wasn't the bet itself... how often have we said, "I betcha a million dollars I'm right on this!" (Or a thousand, or ten thousand?)
It was proffering his hand that made it look aggressive and formal, and required Perry to make a response because it is difficult to ignore an outstretched hand without looking rude.
The moment was very physically awkward... enough to make viewers cringe. Romney is a physically awkward person, but he really can't afford any more of these clumsy, cringe-making moments. They are just too hard to watch.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree that the bet was more of a dare. But do we need a multi-million dollar teenager in the Oval Office? If all he wanted was to make a point "I'll withdraw my nomination bid if it is in there, will you withdraw yours if it is not?" would have been a more adult bet. But then that would require a sense of humor and a quick wit.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI really don’t get why everybody is running for the fainting couch...
It's because the Newtards are in a permanent state of hissy-fit. Now we know what it would be like to be stuck with a gaggle of effeminate gay males forced to wear polyester.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUm...what?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBill Reilly... your concerns are legitimate.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney screwed up, Foster - deal with it. It was an awkward moment on every level and Perry chose rightly not to take the bait.
Even by the point you make - that every school yard argument is settled by, 'Betcha ten-thou' it certainly didn't look very presidential of Romney.
It brought focus to how far Romney's life experience of wealth is from the average Iowaian (or American) who could not make such a rich bet.
I immediately thought of the charity bets that Bill O'Reilly is known to make with guests - some of them turn him down saying it is too rich for them. $10,000 is just not an amount the average American can afford to make. And then there is this current economic climate.
For some us in faith circles, we don't even believe in betting or gambling. Myself, I believe gambling is a perversion of generosity. It is a personal ethic that I don't press on others, nonetheless it gives me pause when I hear someone who wants to be my president proposing a $10,000 bet on a national debate stage.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe problem is that he's too arrogant too realize how foolish this makes him look. It's all going to catch up to him sooner than later. He just lost a whole lot more than 10K. Good for Perry.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse'O’Reilly Says Trump Debate Would Draw Big'
External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHaving once lived in a building right off of the Newtown Creek I can tell you that swim is not beyond the realm of the possible and the water isn't nearly as disgusting today as it was 15-20 years ago.
But yeah, I'd still recommend a kayak over skin in the river.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"The other scenario is that the person offering the bet is absolutely sure he’s correct and wants to make a point of it to the idiot doubting him. "
Of course that's it. But a liberal friend (well, he would insist that he's a "moderate") just brought up Romney's "gaffe." When I defended Romney, I also asked why was it that the Obama family's tax-payer funded vacation at the estate on Martha's Vineyard that cost -- What was it, $40,000 a week? $45,000 a week? -- never seemed to bother him or the Sunday talk show hosts, he shrugged and claimed that that example "isn't relevant." My, that Kool-Aid is potent!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThank goodness Mr. Foster, I thought I was the only one. $10,000 bets and lobbying – I doubt that GOP primary voters really care about these issues. Despite the conventional wisdom that his silly $10,000 bet hurts Mitt, is there any evidence for this supposed damage? It shows that Mitt is rich and out of touch – really, we didn’t already know that? It seems to me that the perception of an “Elite” Romney was long ago “baked into the cake” and is part of the reason why Romney has always had a hard time gaining traction, but it’s unclear that confirming what we already knew about Mitt further damages him.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse