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If a Fraudulent Vote Falls in the Woods . . .

I admit, I squirmed a lot when I watched Bob Costa debate vote fraud on MSNBC last Friday. And it wasn’t because I was worried he was in danger of being lacerated by the jagged edges of one of Al Sharpton’s broken sentences.

It was uncomfortable watching the other lefty panelists try to out-smarm each other by beating Costa over the head with a new Brennan Center for Justice report that purportedly shows vote fraud to be nonexistent. The report points out that a minuscule 0.0002 percent of votes cast in Wisconsin in 2004 were “fraudulent,” each one resulting from an ineligible felon having voted.

The Brennan Center report has quickly gained traction among opponents of new state laws that require voters to show photo identification to vote. Stephen Colbert has routinely ridiculed those that believe vote fraud exists, warning that “our democracy is under siege from an enemy so small it could be hiding anywhere.” Liberals have used to the report to mock RNC chair Reince Priebus’ contention that Wisconsin is “riddled” with vote fraud, as he told MSNBC’s Martin Bashir.

The Brennan Center for Justice, of course, is funded by liberal billionaire George Soros. (As a bonus, the center boasts Words with Friends enthusiast Alec Baldwin as an advisory-board member.) And its report doesn’t withstand even the most cursory scrutiny.

I used to have a debate with one of my colleagues about which states were the most corrupt. He would show me a list of all the states with the most public corruption convictions and declare those states to be the worst in terms of ethics. I answered that he shouldn’t rely solely on arrest and conviction statistics. After all, wouldn’t it be a sign of corruption if all these ethical breaches were occurring and a state decided to look away and not arrest anyone? If that were the case, the most corrupt states would be the ones that didn’t enforce their corruption laws, where nobody was arrested. (As I recall, this particular argument ended with me dodging an airborne egg-salad sandwich.)

Similarly, mere statistics are a terrible way to determine whether vote fraud is occurring. Since the Brennan Center report deals with Wisconsin specifically, I’ll explain why in excruciating detail.

For one, under the previous Wisconsin law — which didn’t require voters to demonstrate who they were — vote fraud was virtually impossible to prove. If someone wanted to vote more than once, all they needed to do was know a name on the voter list, then use that name. That name could belong to a legitimate voter who didn’t show up to vote, or to a voter who doesn’t actually exist. Laws relaxing voter-registration requirements may have allowed groups like ACORN to stuff the rolls with names of fictitious people, which could then have been used to cast votes without any identification. Once that vote is cast, it is impossible to track down who came in and voted using that name.

In 2008, the Milwaukee Police Department issued a report detailing vote fraud that occurred during the 2004 presidential election. The police task force that issued the study said they believed 16 workers from the John Kerry campaign and third-party groups “committed felony crimes” that went unprosecuted.

The MPD found one property where 128 individuals were registered to vote — all of whom signed up for the 2004 election. Twenty-nine voters were registered at a county office building that featured no residential living. The MPD report found instances of double-voting, unopened absentee ballots appearing after the election, and deceased people voting. None of these are counted in the Brennan Center report, which has an extremely narrow definition of “fraud” — people voting who know they are ineligible to vote (felons, for instance).

The MPD task force also questioned the validity of several homeless shelters — one featured 162 registered voters, another boasted 136. As pointed out by the report, many of these homeless individuals were registered at multiple locations — and since identification wasn’t necessary to vote, anyone could have used these people’s names to vote. According to the police report, “this vote portability and the abject poverty that defines homelessness, make these unfortunate individuals vulnerable to become the tools of voter fraud by those who would exploit the homeless.”

Furthermore, the areas where vote fraud is most likely to occur are also those where it is least likely to end in prosecution. Vote fraud is most prevalent in big cities with large populations — which are almost uniformly represented by Democratic district attorneys. There likely aren’t a lot of Democratic DA’s who wake up every morning and say, “Gee, I wonder if I can demonstrate to the public that my party is engaging in vote fraud, and in the process, cost myself votes.”

In fairness, it wouldn’t occur to me to risk imprisonment to cast a few extra votes. (Then again, it wouldn’t occur to me to pepper-spray entire groups of shoppers on Black Friday in order to be the first to purchase discount electronics, but apparently people do it.) However, if I knew that the laws on the books made it impossible for me to be caught – and that even if I were caught I wouldn’t be prosecuted — it would ease my conscience a great deal. In this sense, it can be argued that more vote fraud takes place because so few people are ever arrested and convicted.

Think about all the times you’ve been told that sexual assault occurs more than we think, as victims are hesitant to come forward and press charges. (A claim I believe, incidentally.) What if we just used arrest and conviction statistics to determine how often women are assaulted? Should we assume nobody in Major League Baseball used steroids in the late 1990s because no players were suspended?

The public gets this — polls routinely show widespread support for a photo-ID requirement to vote, which would at least end the practice of name-poaching. There may be very little vote fraud; there may be a great deal. In the absence of a photo-ID requirement, we just didn’t know. We do, however, know that the bogus Brennan Center report is hardly dispositive.

— Christian Schneider is a senior fellow at the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   74

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   12/14/11 12:43

On my birthday, Jersey Mike's requires more ID for a free sandwich than I need to give before I vote.

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   12/14/11 12:44

Let's be accurate -- they insist voter fraud is "non-existent" when Democrats win. (The result should be prima facie evidence of it, after all.)

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   12/14/11 12:47

You can tell how much people love something by how strongly they defend it. The lefties pooh-poohing voter fraud show just how much they truly care about the democratic process. They hold up claims of "voter suppression" as a fig leaf to cover the fact that they have no real interest in protecting the integrity of the vote, by doing things like, oh, checking the identification of the person to see if they really who they say they are. They get the vapors (or act as if they do) over the notion that someone would be troubled to get a state ID card, but don't so much as flinch regarding the possibility that same person's vote is being misappropriated by someone else or canceled out by a fraudulent vote.

Even if the report in question addressed voter fraud broadly and accurately, the attitude about the possibility of voter fraud and protecting the vote tells us who we need to keep our eyes on when ballots go missing, etc.

PS That's an awful way to treat something as fine as an egg salad sandwich.

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square1
   12/14/11 20:15

Ah, you've obviously caught on.

Clearly Democratic opposition shows that we Democrats obviously know that rampant fraud is occurring. People tend to deny wrongdoing on the part of "their side". So if we Democrats are fighting tooth and nail against ID laws it can only be because we have actual knowledge of widespread fraud.

It must be incredibly frustrating that this criminality is occurring election after election, in state after state, year after year, on such a large scale that even anonymous Democratic commenters on political blogs know that it is happening (else why would they fight so hard?) and yet Republicans can't find a single bit of proof of the massive conspiracy. No leaks. No emails. No memos. No proof of organizational meetings or payoffs to the fake voters. How do Democrats manage to pull this off entirely in voting districts with corrupt Democratic police and D.A.s who will never investigate? Very curious.

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Alan Miner
   12/14/11 12:56

Some more quick thoughts:

- It is self-evident that to be able to add to one's vote count by several hundreds or thousands of votes every Election Day would be highly desirable.
- It is therefore a self-evident temptation to fraud.
- If, as outlined in this excellent essay, there is little chance of being caught or punished for obtaining those precious several thousands of votes fraudulently, that would seem to indicate that voter fraud -- in the sense of ineligible or non-existing voters casting votes -- is nearly inevitable.
- Furthermore, if the areas where capture or punishment is LEAST likely is in the cities -- where Democrat Attoneys General preside nearly unanimously -- then it is likely that nearly all voter fraud is pro-Democrat.

To have an automatic several hundred or thousand extra votes every election day is HUGELY powerful. Frequently to tip a key city is to tip a state, is to control appointments and districting, is to control seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Heck, we saw that in 1960 the dead vote in Chicago gave the Presidency to John Kennedy.

Someone on NRO -- Derbyshire, I think -- once wondered why all the cliff-hanger elections, or nearly all of them, tipped to the Democrats. The law of averages would have them go at least ROUGHLY 50-50, instead of 95-5 to the Democrat. However, if, as a honcho of the local Democrat machine, you control voter fraud at the ballot box level, then you also have, more than likely, several OTHER tricks in your pocket (as were on nausea-inducing display in the 2000 Presidential) as well.

It's no wonder that Democrats would resist any REAL attempt to do REAL democracy with REAL voting, as that likely would expose the fact that their support in the country is REALLY a lot less than is reported each election Day.

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getseriousnow
   12/14/11 13:08

Could you outline a vote fraud scheme wherein someone could illegally have hundreds of thousands of votes cast in a statewide election in IL today? I've voted in IL before (legally). Here's how it works:
1. Wait in line
2. Sign next to your name in the registration rolls (this is probably electronic now). All candidates are allowed to have representative at every polling place and challenge voters' identities
3. Get a single ballot and cast a vote

Mr. Schneider is specifically talking about ID-requirements to prevent vote fraud... not some other form of fraud (manipulating results, ballot stuffing after-the-fact, illegal registration, etc). I think I'd be a pretty good criminal if I put my mind to it, but I can't think of a single vote fraud scheme in Illinois... let alone one that could be foiled by an ID requirement.

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   12/14/11 17:02

Your question is invalid. Mr. Minor said "hundreds OR thousands."
Reading: It's Fundamental!

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   12/14/11 17:19

The fact that you have insufficient imagination is not evidence that everyone else is equally stupid.

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   12/14/11 17:20

You'd be a terrible criminal... The Chicago Democrat machine has been paying people to ride buses from precinct to precinct on election days for DECADES (my father was offered $5/precinct in 1972). At each precinct, you are given a name--you go inside, give the worker that name, sign that name on the sheet, cast your ballot, and get back on the bus. Voila, thousands of votes.

How do they get the list of names? Easy when your machine owns the clerk's office ("We got you that job, now you help us.") Start with the name and mother's address of every baby born in the county 18 years earlier and register them as voters in a "neighborhood drive." Add the names of everyone who died since the last election and register the ones who weren't registered previously. In a few years, it's a hell of a list.

I'm an optimist; I suspect if Illinois ever passed a voter ID law the machine would simply falsify some IDs for their bus riders.

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   12/14/11 20:36

- It is self-evident that to be able to add to one's vote count by several hundreds or thousands of votes every Election Day would be highly desirable.
- It is therefore a self-evident temptation to fraud.

Obviously cheating is a temptation. What isn't self-evident is that cheating in the manner that is suggested here -- actual people who are not eligible to vote in that precinct casting actual ballots -- is a likely form for cheating to be manifested.

If I was completely corrupt and wanted to cheat to steal an election, what I would most likely do is find a voting district that uses hackable electronic voting machines, recruit one or two IT experts, and hack the crap out of the machines, adding votes to me and subtracting from my opponent. If I want 10k more votes, why on Earth would I employ 1-10k surrogates running around a city, standing in lines, and hopefully voting over and over when I could add 10k votes at a click of a button? It just doesn't make any sense.

It isn't a matter of morality or legality. It is a matter of practicality.

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   12/14/11 12:55

Don't bother me with facts, we have an election to steal.

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   12/14/11 12:59

Of course there is widespread voter fraud, and one way (of many ways) to measure the degree of it is to compare 'voters' to the drivers' license records (if you are able to get them) for the same area. Driver license records have to be relatively accurate, or you can't track down lawbreakers. When some folks compared the two lists for areas of Beaumont, Texas in 1997, the correlation was roughly 50%.

Of course, we already knew there had been fraud in the 1996 Congressional election there, because we had seen yellow school buses bringing 'voters' from as far away from western Louisiana.

If anyone tells you that there is little to no voter fraud in America, you can be sure they are incredibly ill-informed, or do not believe in one-person, one-vote democracy.

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   12/14/11 13:00

Speaking of Wisconsin and fraudulent votes. Drudge has a report from Milwaukee. Apparently it is against the law to reject the registration of Mickey Mouse and Adolph Hitler. As long as the address given below the signature is from a legitimate WI city, it is up to the parties involved to challenge the signatures and prove that the signatures are fraudulent.

Of course the law gives a ridiculously short challenge period for such signatures.

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   12/14/11 13:46

I know they have received registration cards with the names Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler but has anyone actually tried to vote as Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler? Can you site me some references where that is the case?

Please we all KNOW what this is about. Voter fraud? wink, wink.

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   12/14/11 16:41

Are you kidding me?? The guy mocking the existence of voter fraud is taking the undisputed story of 2 ridiculously fraudulent names and asserting that because no one has actually committed the deed and voted under them yet, this means the problem doesn't exist?

I couldn't kill enough brain cells to make myself employ liberal logic.

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   12/14/11 17:17

Would a Democrat registrar refuse to allow Mickey Mouse or Adolph to vote?

I don't think so.

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   12/14/11 21:28

Explain something for me, lib: When a city like Milwaukee produces more CAST BALLOTS than eligible voters, like they did in 2004, what is that? How do you explain that? How can you with a straight face even suggest that there's no such thing as voter fraud in America? And the numbers aren't insignificant. There were over 4,000 ballots in that one election that could not, by definition, be legitimate.

The Dem's attempts to poo poo this as a real issue are so transparent it's sickening. Do you honestly think you're fooling us? We know that you approve of voter fraud. You admit it every time you argue against election reform.

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Mr. Bird
   12/14/11 13:02

The point about using arrest/conviction stats is very valid. In healthcare, safety and quality improvement initiatives almost always result in a huge spike in errors (and unfortunately, very bad events for patients). It's not that they weren't occurring before, it's because no one was catching them and reporting them.

Let's also tackle the problematic undercounting of people by the census. I never understood that...Or how in the 2000 election, the Florida count was within the margin of error, so a recount was required. That could have been an electoral perpetual motion machine.....

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getseriousnow
   12/14/11 13:03

Any effective, modern vote fraud scheme that involves people voting illegally on a wide enough basis to be worth the effort is easy to prove: you identify the people who vote illegally and have them testify and provide evidence of payment, etc. You don't have to force folks to prove their identity to make vote fraud impractical. You cross folks' names off the roles when they do vote; any vote fraud scheme would then require illegal registrations or illegally obtaining information on election day as to who has not voted; both of which leave evidence and are simple cases to prove. Even if you could somehow illegally register voters or identify registered voters who will not vote, you still need to hire a large number of people to vote multiple times and hope that all of them keep their lips shut in a society that often rewards whistle blowing in these sorts of things.

Incidentally, all of 319 results show up when googling ["name-poaching" vote fraud]. The only ones that have anything to do with elections are this post or sites linking to it. What evidence is there of the existence of the "practice of name-poaching?"

It's easy to imagine how voter ID laws can prevent people from voting. I'm in a fairly lax state on ID laws, showed up at the polling place where I was properly registered, and still had to file a provisional ballot (that did not allow voting for some offices). This was because computerized systems invented to stop this phantom fraud are too confusing for some of the elderly people who tend to be election workers.

Lastly, felons voting isn't a vote fraud problem; it's either registration fraud or ineptitude/corruption on the part of people in charge of WI elections.

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 GWB
   12/14/11 17:14

"You cross folks' names off the roles when they do vote"
And, how the heck do you do this when there's no requirement for an ID to prove it *was* that person?

Also, your distinction between "voting fraud" and "registration fraud" is quibbling and disingenuous.

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