Kim Jong-il’s death came like the line from Fletch: He’d been dying for years, but when it came it was very sudden. Now the world waits to see what will happen to the most repressive and secretive regime on earth. For the past two years, Kim’s putative successor has been his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, whom the world did not even know about until he was abruptly thrust into the North Korean “limelight.” The under-30 Jong-un will likely be mentored (read: controlled) by his powerful uncle, Chang Song-taek, who is Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law and has likely been running the government while the elder Kim slowly faded away. Of course, there are also two older sons of Kim Jong-il who at one time were considered heirs apparent but have been thrust into the shadows. They may have designs on the throne and allies in the military or government that we don’t know about.
For now, however, the North Koreans are following the old Soviet script for succession. Kim Jong-un has been named head of the official state funeral committee, thereby confirming his ascendancy for the moment. His work will begin after the funeral on December 28, when he will have to start consolidating his power; alternatively, we may begin to see hints that he is merely a figurehead, such as increased prominence of other leaders. Only if the regime itself is in danger of fissioning or being attacked by the oppressed people of North Korea will the situation on the peninsula change to any appreciable degree.
What Asian and Western governments need to prepare for is some kind of military demonstration, such as a new nuclear test, a ballistic-missile test, or even a limited attack on South Korean territory or property, all of which have been the stock in trade of the Kim regime. As a means to prove that the new leadership is fully in control, as a warning to South Korea and the United States not to take advantage of the death of Kim Jong-il to push for regime change, or because of factional in-fighting among the North Korean leadership to jockey for position, an act of aggression is very likely after Kim Jong-Il’s funeral. The Obama administration, along with its South Korean ally, needs to make clear now that any such destabilizing actions will be met with a response.
Sadly, there is little chance that Kim Jong-il’s death means the dawn of a new spring in North Korea. Its terrorized and brutalized populace will have to endure more horrors at the hands of the third Kim to rule since the end of World War II, and Asia and the rest of the world will continue to wait nervously for another threat to their safety and security. Now may not be the time to try and weaken the new government, but neither is it time to relax our guard. Our wait-and-see attitude is justified only if we are prepared to strike back against unprovoked aggression and retain the moral compass to condemn the regime for the barbarity that it is.
— Michael Auslin is a resident scholar in Asian and security studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Some good analysis in there, Michael... for a Japan specialist. Just kidding^^
Like Japanese, Koreans tend to feel personal loyalty to their leaders, in social groups and sometimes in politics. South Koreans wept at the death of Park Chung-Hee, and Japnese wept at the death of Emperor Akihito. But interestingly, shortly after the death of Akihito, many WWII soldiers came forward to tell tales of wartime atrocities. Why then? Because they bond of personal loyalty to the Emperor dissolved. Kim Jong Il enjoyed less support than his father, and Kim Jong Un will probably enjoy even less than his dad. Its very possible the loyalty levels will be dangerously low, and the factionalism in NK politics dangerously high, especially with Kim III likely being a puppet.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHm...I guess you are clearly not a Japan specialist yourself. Emperor Akihito (who will become Heisei Tenno but only when he dies) the last time I checked, was still alive. Emperor Showa (Hirohito) died in 1989, that is why the coming year is going to be Heisei 24, according to the Japanese way of counting years.
When emperor Hirohito died most Japanese were genuinely sad. This was in a free, democratic Japan in which I have lived myself for over 20 years, so know what I am talking about. The Japanese did not see their emperor as a blood-thirsty tyrant but as a man who was thrust by history into a place and role not of his own choosing and who tried to his best abilities to carry out what he saw as his duty.
This is not a place to discuss Japan's history but any comparison with Kim Jong Il is absurd.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI lived in Japan for five years, and have been back and forth to Japan on business trips a couple hundred times since I first went to college there in 1973. I agree with your comments. Every country and situation is not as cut and dried as some may see it. My first job was in a Japanese company from 74~77 in Osaka, and my first boss was a kid living over a mountain when the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. He took his bike to the top of the mountain later that day and saw the city lying in ruins. He had absolutely no ill will towards America for that bombing. I also got to meet some guys who had been soldiers in WWII, when they would have only been in their 50s. I remember bringing up the Bataan Death March. They told me something that I had never considered. Prior to WWII, Japan was a very feudal country, almost with a caste system. Most of the young guys drafted into the Army (which was the lowest overall of the three services, below the Navy and Air Force) had been farmers or laborers, who had spent their entire lives on the bottom rung of Japanese society, having to bow to nearly everyone. Suddenly they were soldiers of the Empire of Japan, and with way too much power over prisoners. A little power can go to a person's head, and when they wield a gun it gets worse. So, a lot of the atrocities were due to that, not to anything the Emperor condoned. What is happening in North Korea is even worse, because you have leaders who are perpetrating even worse atrocities on their own people. Emperor Hirohito was no saint, but he was a lot more saintly than the evil family running North Korea.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm not saying Hirohito was a bloodthirsty tyrant. Its true that he was much more figurehead than military planner.
What I am saying is that Japanese soldiers did not discuss the atrocities they committed until Hirohito was dead. They were loyal to him as long as he lived, but when he died, we heard the first confessions about the enslavement of "comfort women". The soldiers did not break their silence earlier out of a personal sense of loyalty to the Emperor.
The analogy I'm trying to make is that North Koreans will likely feel more free to criticize their country and leadership. And the security forces will maybe be slightly more sympathetic to such criticism. Especially now that a 27 year old is in charge, and taking orders from such a young snapper is anathema in Korean culture.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMea culpa. I got my Emperors confused, but the story is accurate. (You're right, I'm not a Japan specialist -- thankfully, since the market for them is saturated and declining).
I am a Koreanist by training, however. I can tell you that the North Korean people also "did not see their [head of state] as a blood-thirsty tyrant but as a man who was thrust by history into a place and role not of his own choosing and who tried to his best abilities to carry out what he saw as his duty."
My point is that North Koreans view their dictator much like WW2-era Japanese saw their Emperor, and that the loyalty until his death probably works in a similar way. By the way, North Korea modelled its propaganda after Japanese WW2 propaganda, and Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il often used similar symbology.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have spent most of my life in Japan and am a Japanese citizen, but I have also lived in South Korea and am deeply interested in its language, history, and culture. It is true that the evil Kim cult drew much from the Japanese imperial myth, but Kim Il Sung, who came from a Christian family, also manipulated the religious fervor of the Koreans, making himself a pseudo-messiah. Kim planned and launched the Korean War. The Showa emperor, by way of contrast, had very little personal power. The current emperor is deeply committed to a democratic and peaceful Japan and, as such, is deeply loved in this country. He is the symbol of the nation, not the head of state. The living god myth is as dead as the Zero fighter.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJust read Biden's comment about the Taliban saying they were per se not our enemy. That would be like me saying, "Joe Biden is not, per se, a blithering idiot," which would be patently wrong to say. Every parent, spouse, and child who has lost a loved one to the Taliban should jam up the White House switchboards demanding an apology and retraction from this dunce. Joe, did they, per se, die from bullets and bombs from people who, per se, liked them? Good grief, it scares me to think this man is one heartbeat away from the Presidency. It would be going from bad to horrible. So, I guess North Korea is also not, per se, our enemy. Gee, was the Luftwaffe, per se, not our enemy in WWII? Was the Viet Cong, per se, not our enemy in Vietnam?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYeah, Barack Obama is likely to really deter those kinds of actions. Should the North Koreans shell another South Korean island, or sink one of their ships, or assassinate half its cabinet, or send commandos to assault the residence of its President, or kidnap some more of its citizens, or kill one of our officers with an axe in the DMZ, or highjack one of our ships on the high seas, or any one of literally dozens of provocations which have essentially gone unanswered and without consequence over the last half century, what's he likely to do?
Give them a stern talking to? Refer them to a UN committee which will issue yet another toothless resolution? Ask them nicely to stop counterfeiting US currency for export or to stop their nuclear proliferation? Request they stop firing missiles over Japanese territory? Offer to bribe them with increased aid in return for meaningless promises which they have no intention of ever keeping?
Come on. It is not possible to restrain North Korea short of military action of such extent which no one has any stomach for, much less anything likely to occur to our Appeaser-in-chief.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm with Kurt NY. Let's give 'em the ole Curtis LeMay, e.g. blow back into the stone age. They wouldn't have very far to go!! I'm with you Kurt, never miss an opportunity to bring Barak Obama into the conversation even when it's a total non sequitur. Very clever.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't forget what Hilly will do: Express deep concern about the underrepresentatuion of gay, lesbian, and transgendered torturers, kidnappers, and killers in the North Korean secret police.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe best thing to do now would be to take the dog out BEFORE it soils the rug--carpet bomb all known Nork military installations, airfields, government buildings and harbors. But we never bothered to declare war against them in 1950, so conservatives like myself might object.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNot entirely sure we need to declare war on North Korea since they attacked our forces that were there imposing a demilitarized zone. And since the conflict was never officially ended, the same justifications allowing us to shoot North Koreans (and, later Chinese) the last time still apply.
Not that I am in favor of shelling them, mind you. (Nor am I opposed at this point... let the response be dictated by the provocation, I say), but a formal declaration of war against a nation that acted militarily against you is not required.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe west must immediately place an embargo against shipments of Kool-Aid to the DPRK.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCertainly we can handle N. Korea militarily.
The reason we don't is the same reason the fighting ended back in the 50's. The Chinese would get into it. And (perhaps) take out Taiwan or Japan in retliation.
No president will act militarily against NK unless there is an egregious act on their part first.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMay he rest in peace with Christopher Hitchens.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNorth Korea, is a pitiful house of cards that will crack under the first sign of pressure.
They have no chance against any real government and would panic if really threatened.
A regime that cant feed its own front line soldiers, cant possibly face a real or even second line military.
I think I will cover more on my blog though.
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