Results from CNN/Time ORC poll of likely GOP Iowa caucus goers: Mitt Romney (25 percent), Ron Paul (22 percent), Rick Santorum (16 percent), Newt Gingrich (14 percent), Rick Perry (11 percent), Michele Bachmann (9 percent), and Jon Huntsman (1 percent). Forty-three percent of voters still anticipate that they might change their mind before caucus night.
Results from CNN/Time ORC poll of likely voters (GOP and independent) in New Hampshire: Romney (44 percent), Paul (17 percent), Gingrich (16 percent), Huntsman (9 percent), Santorum (4 percent), Bachmann (3 percent), and Perry (2 percent). Forty-five percent say they could still change what candidate they support.
Iowa is completely discrediting itself. Ron Paul and Rick Santourm….good lord.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually, I think it's the Republican Party that is completely discrediting itself. Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, etc., etc.,...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFrom what I understand CNN only polled Republicans. Iowa doesn't work like that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSomeone stop the presses: I actually agree with WilliamR.
CNN is under-counting Paul's support here. I don't think it's intentional, it's just their normal convention to only count registered Party members when polling primaries. I think Paul is still ahead, probably by 5 or more points.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAdvice to Mitt: Do not say, "I ~will~ be the nominee." (But then Mitt -- admittedly not the perfect conservative candidate -- is not the type of person to let an arrogant mouth ruin it for him.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell said...
I like seeing Ms. Trinko back posting at the NRO.
Happy New Year !
The poll news is good for the GOP. Santorum is a far better offering than the dreadful Gingrich. Romney gaining a lead in a poll is fascinating as well, a healthy sign.
The Caucus is crazy. Only about 100,000 determine the winner. Iowa has been sinking so badly over the years with some poor selections. We shall see.
Still hard to imagine Dr. Paul believing the USA is to blame for terrorism around the globe (9-11 as well), or even that we should never have fought against the AXIS in WW2.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGlad to see it. Santorum is a principled, full-spectrum conservative with a solid resume and who can speak articulately and with credibility. With Newt hemorrhaging supporters and the potential to poach votes from Perry and Bachmann as the so-cons start to coalesce around one candidate, Santorum would also seem to have a relatively high ceiling. He also has the highest favorables among all GOP candidates in Iowa. Santorum just became a major player in these primaries and that's a good thing for three-legs-of-the-stool conservatives.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, I like Mr. Santorum, but he is not a serious contender of the Nomination. He would not be a strong candidate in the General Election.
The problem is not conviction. The issue is his credibility for the job. Rick has no real private sector ability (essential knowing the Beltway curse), no serious executive experience (a must for the Presidency), no genuine economic insight (very important for today's environment), even a sincere lack of political influence within his home State, etc.
Rick is a nice guy, perhaps the participation in the GOP Primary can grow his reputation and impact - but he really needs more accomplishment and experience in number of ways. We even know him for his work in Washington, which is not an attractive quality for anyone seeking the Office these days.
I do wish him the best, but he isn't up for this enormous task.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNote that all the shortcomings you list also describe Barack Obama. At least Santorum can point to some success as a legislative leader. I'd prefer the other Rick for precisely the reasons you identify, but I don't think Santorum's qualifications would be a problem in the general election.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama is really the best defense you can cite? If the GOP nominates someone without executive experience they're as dumb as the left was in 2008.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEric at Redstate.com has an article which includes facts which cast grave doubt on how conservative Santorum really is. Among other problems.
I was excoriated on another thread, because he comes across to me like an excitable teen age boy and he reminds me of Gomer Pyle. No gravitas.
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRedState will say anything and savage anyone that isn't Perry. It goes beyond what Jen Rubin does for Romney, and she's got a much better justification to do it because Romney isnt the complete imbecile that Perry is. RedState's love for Perry is some of the most delusional stuff I've ever seen on the right.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't get too excited about Santorum yet. I notice that this CNN/Time poll started its sample a week ago on Dec. 21. PPP also has a poll out today that was taken after Christmas that shows Santorum essentially tied with Perry and Bachmann at 10%, Paul at 24%, Romney at 20% and Gingrich at 13% - each of which is within 1% of where PPP had them in their last poll from 12/16-12/18. Not sure if this means Santorum peaked last week and then dropped, or whether one of these polls is just an outlier.
But if Perry/Santorum/Bachmann are really more organized than Newt in Iowa, these polls suggest that Newt will end up behind at least one of them, and possibly all three. And if one of the three can consolidate support from other candidates, he/she could potentially still win the event.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSweet!
Romney will win Iowa, and then crush all in New Hampshire.
And, the headlines out of Iowa won't be that "Rick Santorum finished 3rd."
It will be that Mitt Romney "won in Iowa despite spending hardly any time there and despite his critics writing him off."
Oh and this headline: "The mouth that roared went out with a whimper: Gingrich finishes in 4th place."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAlways liked Santorum, glad to see him gaining traction. Unlike Romney and Gingrich, he is actually conservative.
He could be good fit for South Carolina, which is the next big test after Iowa. New Hampshire is meaningless this year, as everyone assumes Romney will win big there.
After Iowa, it is all about the expectations game and the "Big Mo".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSantorum actually conservative? haha. You mean he is a SOCIAL conservative. The man is, by his own admission at the Ames debate, the strongest opponent of the 10th Amendment in the Republican field.
The guy has no respect for state sovereignty, and believes the federal government should be able to impose its own national view of morality on the states. You may like it under Santorum, but imagine what happens when someone on the left (like Pelosi or Barney Frank) starts imposing their perverted morality on the states, and demanding that states indoctrinate your kindergartner on the finer points of same sex 'relations' (all under the authority of Santorum executive orders and endorsed by nationailstic Santorum judicial appointees).
Santorum may be the dream of short-sighted big government social cons, but he is a nightmare for anyone who hopes for reigning in the federal leviathon. Anyone who rejects the 10th Amendment should be disqualified from the Republican party.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney has wrapped this thing up. Santorum even being considered for higher office is a comical endeavor. At this point conservatives have no choice. Newt is unpredictable, Perry bombed, Cain... and Bachmann believes Perry is forcing retardation in girls in Texas. God help the Republic.
Santorum is anti-birth control. That's an idiot position. The fact that the National Review thinks having this embarrassment in the hunt is a good thing is the most depressing development yet.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney's flaws make those of any of the others pale by comparison, and he should never even have been considered by anyone claiming to be conservative. Anyone who wants to beat Obama next year ought to be scrambling to figure out which of the others is best to put against him. I think it's Perry, but Santorum would probably be my second choice.
But as long as it's not Romney I think we'll do pretty well.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgree. Santorum is a wing-nut...anti-birth control in a nation that wholly approves of birth control, anti-gay in a nation increasingly accepting of homosexuality, and is a doubter of evolution, despite the fact that HIS OWN CHURCH has no problem with the teaching of evolution.
If Santorum is the GOP candidate, then the GOP has doomed us to four more years of Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseReality check here: Santorum has very prominent socially conservative views... do people really think he could contend in a national election in a country that is getting more socially UN-conservative by the month? I can't get away from the conclusion that Romney remains the best overall.
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