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Re: Santorum Jumps to Third in Iowa

This could be huge for Santorum. I’m guessing people in Iowa like what he says, but needed permission to support him in the form of some assurance that their votes wouldn’t be wasted. If he’s trending upwards in the polls, they get that permission. As John McCormack pointed out in his nice piece on Santorum in The Weekly Standard, he’s not perfect; he has the liabilities of a Bush-era member of the Senate Republican leadership. But our friend Quin Hillyer, who’s been banging the drums for Santorum for about a year, had this post in the Corner (pasted below) a few weeks ago that makes the case for his record:

Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush — conservatives all year long have been wishing, yearning, even begging people who aren’t in the presidential race to enter the fray and save them from what seems like a frighteningly uninspiring field of candidates. Yet could it be that the sharpest, most accomplished, most campaign-savvy, and most full-spectrum conservative in a quarter-century of presidential contests has been in the contest all along, working harder than anybody, making at least as much intellectual sense as anybody, never blowing a debate, and never failing to stand on principle?

The man of the hour could be that perennial underdog, Rick Santorum.

With Michele Bachmann and her rapidly changing staff having faded almost to oblivion, with Rick Perry having bombed in four straight debates, with Newt Gingrich still weighed down by more baggage than LaGuardia Airport after a three-day snow-storm, and with Herman Cain possibly imploding before our eyes after the most graphic allegations yet, could Santorum be the last conservative left standing?

Well, no. Santorum never stands; he keeps on running. As even the New York Times recently has noted, the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania is out-working, out-hustling, and out-slogging everybody else in the field in Iowa, building a campaign organization in an old-fashioned, one-person-at-a-time manner more thorough than any candidate since Jimmy Carter first put Iowa on the presidential map in 1976. His 99-county campaign is probably unprecedented, and his energy is infectious. This week he scored a huge coup with the endorsement of Chuck Laudner, a former Iowa Republican party executive director who is perhaps the most effective conservative operative in the Hawkeye State. Amidst all that, Santorum also has built surprisingly extensive grassroots networks in New Hampshire and South Carolina, with well-liked former congressman Gresham Barrett helping lead his effort in the latter.

Rick Santorum is a man accustomed to beating long political odds. As late as election night in his first race for Congress in 1990, top staffers at the National Republican Congressional Committee weren’t even familiar with him — even as returns came in showing that, without a single bit of national party help, he had won an upset victory in western Pennsylvania. Redistricted into a fight with a Democratic incumbent in 1992, he won again. Running for the Senate in 1994, again he was supposed to have no chance, this time against media favorite Harris Wofford, who was thought unbeatable after having erased a 30-point deficit to beat Republican former Gov. Dick Thornburgh in 1991. Running for reelection in 2000, Santorum again was an underdog — but, even as George W. Bush lost Pennsylvania by four points, Santorum won it by seven.

All of that political success, however, seems to get forgotten in comparison with his 18-point reelection loss in 2006. Yet it’s almost impossible to see how any other candidate could have done better. Pennsylvania featured a million more registered Democrats than Republicans; 2006 was the worst Republican year nationwide (excluding Watergate’s 1974) since the Great Depression; and Santorum’s opponent, Bob Casey Jr., was the namesake son of probably the most popular Keystone State governor in more than half a century. As it was, Santorum outpolled that year’s Republican candidate for governor, and outperformed the Republican candidates in most congressional districts as well. Finally, Santorum ran his race as a profile in courage, insisting that the United States should not cut and run from an increasingly unpopular mission in Iraq, in effect presaging the “surge” strategy that ended up working so well.

Other conservative senators have told me personally they advised Santorum to hedge his bets on issues that year — but that Santorum said that in a brutally tough election year, if he couldn’t win by standing on principle, he wasn’t going to win anyway. Can anybody doubt that he was correct? That’s the sort of attitude that can attract and inspire voters in the more-Republican year that 2012 promises to be, when the energy of Tea Partiers and social conservatives alike will be needed to be at a high level to counteract Barack Obama’s planned $1 billion campaign.

As almost any conservative will readily acknowledge, Santorum’s record of actually legislating on principle is stellar. Almost every conservative interest group rated him highly, with the American Conservative Union’s lifetime 88.1 rating for Santorum being typical. Yet those who buy into the media image of him as a saber-rattler without real effect haven’t looked at the real record. One doesn’t get chosen as Senate Republican Conference Chairman, the party’s third-ranking Senate position, if you can’t get things done and work well with others. He was a lead Senate author and floor manager of the 1996 welfare reform act, and the author of other successful legislation ranging from various anti-abortion bills to the Iran Freedom and Support Act. Those with longer memories will remember his leadership of the Gang of Seven in the early 1990s that did so much to publicize various ethics breaches in the House, helping set the stage for the historic 1994 Republican takeover of Congress.

Finally, conservatives heavily engaged in the wars over judicial nominations know that even though Santorum wasn’t on the Judiciary Committee, he ranked was one of the Senate’s two or three most stalwart, and effective, supporters of conservative selections, even when much of the rest of the Republican caucus didn’t want to be bothered.

In this campaign, meanwhile, nobody has been more substantive. His major policy speeches on defense and the role of faith in public life were tours de force, and on Friday he added a bold speech on a plethora of social issues. He also enthusiastically embraced House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan’s spending reforms even when others like Newt Gingrich were trying to distance themselves from it.

None of which is to say that Santorum is a perfect candidate. As strong as he has been on substance in debates, for instance, he hasn’t gained in the polls — perhaps because while his attack-dog habits have succeeded in hurting other candidates, they haven’t redounded to his own advantage. Any adviser would tell him henceforth to stop interrupting other candidates, to smile more, and to spend more time offering a positive agenda that stresses the good it will do for American citizens rather than the good it shows about his own character. Santorum needs to give a better sense it is the nation’s virtues, not his own, that he is extolling.

Those, however, are correctable style points. They don’t require an essential change in his character, his specific issue positions, or his overall message. Nor would Rick Santorum be likely to change those essentials. Perhaps the most refreshing thing about Santorum, from the moment he entered the nationals scene in 1990, is that there’s no fakery about him. His genuineness is palpable. His sincerity is unquestionable. His conservative bona fides are superb.

And his political chops are far, far stronger than most observers have credited. Conservatives would not only be premature in counting him out, but would also be foolish. Rick Santorum is a savvy, principled conservative, and he has a history of being a winner.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   58

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   12/28/11 18:31

When he endorsed Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey for a US Senate seat, I didn't think that was very conservative at all.

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   12/28/11 18:55

When he criticized every other Republican on the stage - on the grounds that Santorum believes a national morality should always trump the Tenth Amendment, I didn't think that was very conservative at all either.

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   12/28/11 20:10

Some would say we owe the presence of the conservative Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court to none other than Arlen Specter. Just saying.

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   12/28/11 20:56

So what? I'm sure Specter voted the right way at least half the time he was in the Senate. Doesn't mean that he wasn't a disaster overall for conservatives. By any honest metric, Santorum displayed incredibly poor judgement in 2004 by helping put Specter over the top in Pennsylvania.

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   12/28/11 19:07

"This could be huge for Santorum. "

I don't believe you actually believe that. But, even if you do, please tell us how Rick Santorum helps the GOP take back the WH.

John McCain had 173 Electoral Votes, so whoever the nominee is, he/she's going to need to carry all McCain's states and find another 97 Electoral Votes. Barack Obama won eight states by less than 10-points. Presuming those states (NC, IN, FL, OH, VA, CO, IA, NH - 106 total EV) are in play, how does Santorum help our chances in any of those states, but particularly in FL, CO & NH? And, does Santorum have any shot in VA? Sure, McDonnell carried VA pretty easily, but McDonnell went out of his way to not talk about social issues. All Santorum talks about are social issues. Can a man who says loudly no abortion even in the case of rape or incest win the NoVA suburbs like McDonnell did? I don't think so, and I live there.

The next closest states for Obama were MN, PA, NV, WI & NM. I'm not even remotely confident that Santorum can carry his home state, and I don't see him doing anything in WI, MN, NV or NM - all states that Obama carried by double-digits.

I don't think Santorum would do any worse than McCain, and certainly nothing close to a Goldwateresque performance. Plus, if you look at the states McCain won, I can't see any GOP nominee not wining those same states, with the possible exception of razor-thin win MO. But, I can't see any scenario where Santorum gets to 270, in fact, 245 probably isn't possible. Santorum would also give Obama and his surrogates ample opportunity to talk about a variety of issues that have nothing to do with the economy: Abortion, gay marriage, homosexuals in the military, birth control. That would be disastrous.

Finally, this sentence by Hillyer is delusional...

"Rick Santorum is a savvy, principled conservative, and he has a history of being a winner."

Bob Gibson won a few games in his day, too. Do you think Gibson could win a ballgame today? Yeah, me neither.

Santorum suffered the worst defeat as an incumbent Senator in almost 30-years. How does that happen to a "savvy" politician?

I'm continually amazed that so people who earn their living writing about politics don't even have an Electoral map lying around the house, much less pinned to their office wall. Maybe Hillyer got one for Christmas. Let's hope.

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   12/28/11 20:26

A savvy politician would not have run for PA Senate again in 2006, but rather made some bucks and then run for the GOP nomination in 2008.

Assuming McCain still won the nomination, Santorum would be the frontrunner this time around, and likely walk to the nomination with a united conservative '3-legged stool' backing.

Really, his sin was losing in 2006. The idea social conservatism would hurt him against Obama is ludicrous.

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   12/28/11 20:44

The "three legged stool" concept refers to fiscal, social, and national security conservatives, bound together by federalism.

Santorum fails on the fiscal side, and affirmastively rejects federalism. He is a two legged stool with no cap.

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   12/28/11 21:22

"The idea social conservatism would hurt him against Obama is ludicrous."

The exit polling data just doesn't support that claim. In 2008 and for the first time in the history of exit polling, the GOP lost the college-educated voter. Rick Santorum's unending drumbeat of social conservative dogma does nothing to win those voters back as these are the Republican voters that do support gay marriage and homosexuals in the military, to say nothing of supporting the wide availability of birth control and access to abortion in the case of rape and incest. Without winning those voters back, the GOP nominee cannot win the election. It's a matter of simple mathematics.

External Link 

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Bush won college-educated voters 52/46. Obama won college-educated voters 50-48. Considering Nader earned almost 2-points in that demo in 2004, Obama improved on Kerry's performance by almost 6-points. Just splitting them evenly in 2012 means Obama wins. Because of the racial advantage established by Obama, a successful GOP nominee will have to carry those voters by at least 4-points (maybe 5-points) if they have any hope of winning the general election.

Can a social conservative win the White House again? Maybe, but not this year. And, particularly not this year when the social conservative candidate is best known for his strident social conservative views. Personally, I don't have anything against Santorum. I believe he's a smart guy that doesn't deserve most of the knocks against him. But, politics isn't about what candidates deserve; it's about what voters believe, and in that regard, Santorum's die has been cast.

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   12/28/11 21:30

I think the stats for the Obama election are a little skewed given the historic nature of the race, and the excitement of the young college-aged youth who previously had not been involved in politics, or even voted.

Actually, the younger voter (as has been reported here) is more likely to be pro-life today as the older voter.

The thing is, the GOP can't win without a strong social conservative turnout. And what bothers me is that everyone assumes the social conservatives should let economic issues trump all, yet in the same breath they declare the independents would vote for 4 more years of Obama's economy rather than elect a social conservative.

Really? If you have been out of work for 4 years are you really going to vote Obama just because a guy will appoint another Scalia to the Bench?

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   12/28/11 21:44

"If you have been out of work for 4 years are you really going to vote Obama just because a guy will appoint another Scalia to the Bench?"

No, you're not. But, (there's always a but) people with college degrees haven't been out of work for four years. I haven't seen the numbers recently, but as of a few months ago, college-educated unemployment was less than 4.5%. It's the people without college degrees, and particularly people without high school degrees that are REALLY suffering. Of course, many of those people are black, and you know how they're still going to vote.

Ironically for Obama, the people who have been most affected by this long and deep recession are the same exact people that represent Obama's strongest constituency. It's weird.

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   12/28/11 22:09

I understand the unemployment stats as to having a college degree or not....where I don't get you now is why are these voters even looking to vote other than Obama this time?

Why would these guys be willing to abandon Obama for Romney but not Santorum?

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   12/28/11 22:21

"Why would these guys be willing to abandon Obama for Romney but not Santorum?"

A fair and good question. I think the short answer is that Romney doesn't scare them like Santorum does (or would).

I think generally, a majority of the country wants to fire Obama. A malaise has settled across America and I don't believe that most people believe Obama can steer us out of it. BUT, I think there's a certain percentage of moderate voters who don't want to vote for (someone they perceive to be) a "social conservative" champion, even if that means they're stuck with Barry for four more years. Things are bad, but things are that bad for them, at least not yet.

If this were the Three Little Bears, Romney would be the chair, the bed and the porridge that was "just right" for these ursine voters.

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   12/29/11 00:10

It is all moot because Rick's not winning the nomination, but a lot would hinge on how he ran his general election. In the GOP primary it is not surprising to see him focus on the social issues, especially with his need for Iowa.

However, in the Senate he was not a one-trick pony. He is quite capable of discussing the full range of issues on the table, and he would need to focus on those against Obama, obviously.

The key is that he would not drive off any social conservatives, and in fact would do a lot to energize that group. Is Obama the gay marriage candidate now? Is he going to vociferously support gay marriage? We can only hope given it might mute a little black turnout (not that they would vote for Rick).

Bottom line - I don't want to sweat Georgia and other states that would be a lock with a solid social conservative. McCain lost in 2000 (despite his very conservative track record then) because of the social conservative vote. They certainly did not return for him in 2008.

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   12/29/11 00:40

"They certainly did not return for him in 2008."

If they didn't vote for McCain in 2008, then they REALLY didn't vote for GWB in 2000; Almost 9.5M more people voted for John McCain in 2008 than voted for GWB in 2000. The meme that says "conservatives didn't turn out for McCain" is absurd on its face, although it's surely frequently repeated. Of course they did. If they hadn't, states like MO and GA would have fallen to Obama fairly easily. In fact, 1.8M Georgians voted for Obama in 2008 whereas only 1.4M voted for Bush eight years earlier. McCain still won because social conservatives turned out, big time, carrying McCain to over 2M votes in GA in 2008.

With respect to Santorum not being a "one trick pony", I agree, fully. He can speak quite eloquently and deeply about a broad range of topics, both foreign and domestic. But, his perception is still of a social conservative champion, and that perception would be very difficult for him to overcome (read: impossible), even with a perfectly executed campaign.

"Is Obama the gay marriage candidate now? "

I don't know, and I suspect his campaign hasn't made that decision yet either. It will all depend upon what the polling shows. If he thinks he can come out (so to speak) in favor of homosexual marriage without depressing the black turnout in the black church communities, then my guess is he will "magically" find a new voice in favor of same sex marriage.

OTOH, it may be a needless risk to take for him, with very little upside even if he would hedge or reverse his 2008 position. With the repeal of DADT and his refusal to defend DOMA, this won't be an issue for him with gays if he decides to keep his 2008 position. They know he's only saying what he needs to say to get reelected and that he'll take care of them in the end (get it, in the end - lol)

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irmaladuce
   12/29/11 01:15

Black voters are not going to abandon Barack Obama over gay marriage. Frankly, I don't think that any Democrat has to worry about losing black support over this issue. It's white social conservatives that have the Democrats hedging their bets.

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   12/29/11 01:21

remember though in comparing to 2000 figures, Bush lost a few million in the last week. They did return in 2004 though.

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   12/29/11 01:28

I did my own digging, using CNN exit polls.

39% of the electorate were weekly or more church attenders in 2008. They voted 55% McCain.

42% of the electorate were that way in 2004, but Bush got 64% (more than weekly) and 58% (weekly)

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   12/29/11 01:35

"42% of the electorate were that way in 2004, but Bush got 64% (more than weekly) and 58% (weekly)"

Absolutely. Do you know what communities those "church-goers" came from? The black and Latino communities.

Bush had a (relatively) successful outreach, especially in 2004, to the black churches. And of course, we all know how successful Bush was in securing the Latino vote; no GOP presidential candidate did as well with Latinos as Bush did with them in 2004. A HUGE chunk of those Latinos were practicing Catholics and active participants in their parishes.

Those voters went to Obama in 2008, and I promise you they didn't vote for Obama because of his social conservative positions relative to McCain's.

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   12/29/11 03:50

Not following you on that one, Scott. You're telling me that the blacks and latinos are those church-goers, and yet the percentage of such church-goers was higher in 2004 in a Bush/Kerry election than they were in 2008 and the chance to elect Obama when the minority turnout was off the charts?

I know you are a smart dude, but that doesn't track.

Anyway, I am one of those Bible-thumpers and the anecdotal evidence I could cite still shows McCain lagging compared to Bush. FWIW

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   12/29/11 09:17

"You're telling me that the blacks and latinos are those church-goers,and yet the percentage of such church-goers was higher in 2004 in a Bush/Kerry"

Yep, that's what I'm saying. Remember, percentages are relative. Just because a particular demographic - as a percentage of total voters - shrinks, doesn't mean fewer voters in that "shrinking" demographic actually voted.

Look at the white vote between 2004 and 2008. As a percentage of total voters, whites represented 3--points less of the total electorate in 2008 (74%) than they did in 2004 (77%). Does that mean fewer whites voted? Not at all. In fact, even more whites voted in 2008, but so many more Latinos and blacks voted that it drove down the white demo as a percentage of total voters.

A similar effect happened to evangelicals. They turned out in the same numbers, but so many more people who voted weren't regular church-goers and/or evangelicals that it drove down that evangelical percentage.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the increase in black and Latino voters came largely from people who never voted before, or hadn't voted in years. These weren't the church-going minorities because those minorities have been a reliable voting block for decades. The minorities that came to the polls for the first time were registered and delivered to the polling stations not by church groups but by "community organizations" like ACORN. Put another way, more minorities voted, but much of that increase came from minorities that weren't church-going minorities.

I will cede this point about evangelicals in 2008 compared to those in 2004: They weren't as motivated and as a consequence, weren't as engaged and active. But, 2004 was a weird year that is not likely to be repeated anytime soon. Why? Gay marriage. The SSM ballot referendums that were on so many statewide ballots drove evangelical participation to frenzied levels. That can only happen once. They worked to pass those amendments/initiatives, and most of them did pass. It's hard to envision a single issue that's going to drive evangelical participation again like SSM did in 2004.

And, even if there was, it's no longer a foregone conclusion that those additional evangelical voters are going to vote Republican. Look at Prop 8 in California. It passed while at the same time Obama won the state by 20-points. Why? Because while blacks and Latinos generally don't like homosexual marriage, they'll cross the ballot to vote for the candidate that more closely resembles them, as they did for Obama.

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