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The Expectations Game

For what it’s worth, I think Romney will have a real problem if he’s under 30. The Suffolk track shows him heading in that direction.

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COMMENTS   31

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   01/09/12 19:12

LOL!

Please, Mr. Lowry has to be toying with the readers.

Or...

Mr. Lowry needs a long vacation, a really big step back.

It is simply silly...

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   01/09/12 19:38

Well, OF, one thing that we don't have to worry about is losing Rich to the White House press office after Romney's election.

(Looks like it will be Ann Coulter behind the podium!...LOL at my own funny.)

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   01/09/12 19:40

hehehehe !

ED !

Well, I know Mr. Lowry is outstanding, perhaps he is just playing the game for the game's sake.

You state it very well.

I actually like the "fire" concept, for I really want to remove Obama from the White House this 2012. All the Democrats should be fired from their jobs in Government, which has made such a mess for Our Nation.

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   01/09/12 20:47

I agree. Mr. Lowry is having fun with his loyal readers. He also posted after the recent debates that Romney was taking on water. But to take this stuff seriously is to take a Rick Santorum candidacy seriously. Can't be done.

Please note I wrote "Santorum candidacy" as I do take the man and his positions seriously. Decent guy. Good on issues. No executive experience. Ugly sweaters.

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   01/09/12 19:18

What would be his problem? He doesn't have a formidable opponent. Quit boring us with "expectations."

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   01/09/12 19:23

I agree.

However, considering he's been carpet-bombed since Friday and it's an open primary, staying over 30 and winning by double digits should be considered a significant feat, "backyard" notwithstanding.

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   01/09/12 19:23

He is not going to drop below thirty.

By the way, Suffolk has Santorum at 5th, leaving only Perry, who is skipping the state, behind him. If Santorum manages to fall to 5th, behind Gingrich, how are Santorum and Gingrich going to avoid spitting their vote in South Carolina?

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   01/09/12 20:53

One could understandably get the impression that Lowry is simply playing the expectations game. I guess late tomorrow, if Romney gets, as expected, more than 30%, then we're supposed to celebrate his incredible landslide mandate.

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Jonathan0815
   01/09/12 19:24

I doubt Romney will finish under 30 (Suffolk poll has 12% undecided) but even if he does win with less than that percentage, he will still be the first non-incumbent to win both the Iowa GOP caucus and NH GOP primary, ever.

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   01/09/12 19:30

Under 30 would signal slowed momentum and perhaps provide a faint ray of hope to one of the struggling campaigns, depending on how they come in. OTOH, slowing momentum for the frontrunner in the final hours is typical of the New Hampshire campaign.

More than any of that, though, I am struck at what looks an awfully lot like grasping at anti-Mitt straws on the part of Rich. I haven't seen much from Rich today until this breaking news that all Mitt's competitors may not be completely finished. There is a clear pattern here of selective reporting that is not what I expect from Rich; it is not worthy of the chair he sits in. If he is imitating the non-journalistic behavior of his senior over at the Weekly Standard, he is making a big mistake.

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   01/09/12 19:38

The PPP poll has Huntsman just 2 points behind Paul. If Huntsman manages to beat out Paul for 2nd, that might create bigger problems for Romney. I suspect some of the people who like Romney might prefer Huntsman if he was competitive.

But then again, if in the NH primary all the other candidates manage to only finish in single digits or near single digits, it might cause their people to flee to Romney to try and stop Obama's former China Ambassador (btw, I don't hold it against him for taking that job).

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   01/09/12 19:51

Good point.

But like McCain in the last NH Primary from 2008, many Democratic Partisans jumped in the GOP side to vote to tank Romney. Would not doubt we see the same thing happen to try to boost Huntsman - as the Globe did with their endorsement. Democrats are afraid of a Romney Nomination, they will pull out many stops to try to avoid it.

One truly ugly thing about Huntsman, not about his working for Obama with an Ambassadorship, was the glowing letters he sent to the Obama Administration praising their awful policies. It reminded one of Perry writing such bizarre acclaim to Hillary Clinton as she was attempting to Nationalize Health Care in the early 90's.

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   01/09/12 20:53

The letter certainly didn't play well in the Conservative blogs, that's for sure. And he has been very ill served by his campaign manager, Mr. Weaver, who should have been fired last summer. And it probably doesn't do Huntsman any good that he has a desire to be on the cover of GQ, and have the NY Times say nice things about him.

If the race comes down to Huntsman and Romney, I would be fine with that, because they both have a shot at winning in a general election, unlike the others who basically are unelectable in a general election. People who think Perry, Santorum, and Gingrich are on par with the candidates that ran 4 years ago, they are dreaming. I don't know how we ended up with better field of candidates 4 years ago than we have today, but it happened.

Huntsman's biggest problem is he can't get the nomination, unless Rush, Hannity and others on talk radio or somebody on the right decides he isn't such a bad guy after all, I don't see that happening. I doubt Dobson and all the other leaders of the evangelicals that are going to hold a meeting to decide who to endorse are going to decide to endorse Huntsman to stop Romney, as he is for Civil Unions. If the polls were the other way around they might be meeting to endorse Romney to stop Huntsman.

I will say this about Huntsman, he is right about the risks that are involved with some of the actions that Romney, Santorum, and Perry are suggesting we take to retaliate against Chinese currency manipulation. A trade war would not be pretty, and the candidates are underestimating the costs to the US economy if such a trade were to take place. I think this is probably good politics during a campaign with voters that are not so fond of China to bash China, and I think Romney will probably be a little more practical if get elected, but still Huntsman is right on this issue while all the other candidates are wrong.

It is a complicated issue that is hard to explain and easily demagogued. It would help if Huntsman could explain it in English instead of 中国語.

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jrterrier
   01/09/12 21:20

huntsman seems like a smug and more refined gingrich or obama. they are each enamored with the immensity of their intellect. i don't see that he has done much of anything. a mormon winning in utah is like a kennedy winning in MA.

and the man looks like he has a perpetual tooth ache. i suppose when you ponder such deep thoughts, you cannot evan crack a smile.

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   01/09/12 21:45

I don't know why anyone would care about his position on civil unions; that's not a federal issue. He's stated flatly that he'd defend DOMA, which is more than Obama would do.

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   01/09/12 21:44

The letter did not praise any of Obama's policies, just Obama as a person.

Oh, and it was the Obama administration that leaked it.

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   01/09/12 22:09

But Huntsman is polling horribly nationally. A little bump in NH for him would only have the effect of taking more wind out of Santorum's sails. It won't translate into any significant success in SC or beyond.

Having the other candidates play musical chairs as to who gets to take second place only cements Romney as the clear front-runner.

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   01/09/12 20:05

I agree that if Romney is under 30% it won't be the victory he was looking for, but where does that "second wind" go to? It's still split up among Santorum, Gingrich and Perry.

I think it's going to be tough to deny a victory to Romney if he wins by 10-15 points, even though among political junkies that would seem to be a soft victory. Particularly if his real competition is way back in 4th or 5th place.

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matthew8787
   01/09/12 20:22

Chris Wallace said on Sunday night that the over-end expectations for Romney is 37.

For the 2nd straight week Romney has personally said something incredibly stupid less than 48 hrs b4 Iowa and NH. No wonder undecideds break against him, and I say this as a Romney supporter.

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Bill Wilde
   01/09/12 21:37

What surprises me is that Ron Paul is holding steady at about 18%. Are there that many Looney Tunes in N.H.? Or is it all a pox on all your houses protest vote? Cordially, Bill

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