Sorry for the radio silence, folks — swamped.
Rich and Mike, I think there’s too much focus on “electable.” The election is going to be about Obama. The big differences we see between our guys — given that watching politics, and particularly GOP and conservative politics, is what we do around here — are likely to seem like marginal differences to the broader electorate that eventually decides the November election. “Electable” is not only about the field, it’s about the situation — for example, I think Mitt is clearly a better, more polished candidate this time around, but I also think it is a tougher race for him this time around because Obamacare is our biggest issue, so Romneycare looms much larger now than it did in ’08. And speaking of ’08, who on January 10 of that year knew that, when the autumn-stretch of the race came, the financial meltdown would be the consuming issue? If we could have predicted such a thing, maybe Mitt would have seemed more electable than Senator McCain.
Newt has done himself a lot of damage in the last few days. But he’s been a plausible candidate this time around, when in many cycles he would not be, because the main issue is Obama’s radicalism — the president has people frightened enough that what would appear to be insurmountable baggage in some elections could be cancelled out this time around. Besides Obama, the Tea Party movement is a big dynamic that did not exist in ’08 — maybe it makes Santorum or Perry more electable than they would have been at similar stages in other cycles.
I just think we overrate electability at this point. In a short time, whether it is weeks or months, we’re going to have a candidate. What the polls say now about X or Y’s standing head-to-head against Obama is close to meaningless. The election is going to be about how fed up with Obama the public is (or isn’t), and that is a judgment that will be made against the backdrop of some known unknowns (debt, jobs, the Supreme Court’s Obamacare decision, Iran, Europe’s financial crisis . . .) and some unknown unknowns. Some of those things will tee up better for some of our guys than for others. But I think the GOP candidates who seem most plausible right now are in the range of acceptability needed to beat the president.
Personally, I can’t get myself whipped up about which GOP candidate a handful of Dems say they want to run against — some spinning, some maybe not. Let’s face it: Every one of our guys presents some enticing vulnerabilities for the Obama camp. The problem they have is: We get to run against the president — as the only folks in the election who will want to talk about his record. I think their problem is bigger than our problem.
Way too early to speculate on electability. We still don't know what the ground will look like next week, next month, between Independence Day and Labor Day.
Any of these things will upset the conventional wisdom of the moment. The Republicans are so much better of letting the whole process play out until at least the convention. It won't allow the media to fatten up our calve before devouring it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFinally, someone who agrees with me -- talk of electability is meaningless. Good post, Mr. McCarthy. Thank you.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe can know with fair certainty how conservative a candidate is.
We can never know how electable they are because elections are contingent upon circumstances at the time of the election. (Winston Churchill was unelectable as PM in 1915; he was highly electable in 1940).
What the GOP Establishment and its NR wing want to do is ignore what we know in favor of what they pretend to know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree that polls matching theoretical nominees against Obama are of limited value, but a less quantitative and more qualitative evaluation of the possible match-ups is still a valid approach to selecting the Republican nominee given the crucial importance of defeating Obama and the likelihood that the election will be close.
"The election is going to be about Obama." Well, not if the Democrats have anything to say about it. It SHOULD be about Obama, and if it is about him, his record, and his vision of decline for this country, we win. On the other hand, the two-pronged Obama strategy is clear: stoke envy of the successful and demonize the Republican nominee as so frightening that Obama actually seems safe by comparison. Knowing that, the candidate who can most easily deflect the attacks that will be leveled against him may very well be more electable.
A plausible argument can be made for Romney on that basis, and in fact explains how well Romney seems to have done with New Hampshire voters based on tonight's exit polls. I'm not advocating for Romney over Santorum, but it's something to think about. Gingrich and the others who have recently attacked Romney for the sin of being productive have disqualified themselves from being the Republican standard-bearer, but after tonight's results they're pretty well out of it anyway.
Gingrich's attack on Romney, by the way, proves that all the criticism made of him after his rise in Iowa was correct. He's no advocate of free markets and, incredibly, by attacking Romney's success he was in effect repeating the same mistake he made undercutting the Ryan budget proposal - adopting the Left's worldview. This should have settled his hash at once. Obama could defeat Gingrich merely by running a tape of his own words against him; he would have a much harder time with either Romney (despite RomneyCare) or Santorum.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is a simple "eyeball test" that many of the Republican candidates simply don't pass. They won't beat Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAndy, I guess you haven't been reading the tweets. Gov. Romney, in a small state of moderate GOPers, looks like he will get 4 delegates (others will get 8). Therefore (if I read the tweets right), it's *over,* there is no chance of a brokered convention, and Ron Paul and his supporters (some of whom are switchable to the GOP) must be loudly considered to be 'beyond the pale.' Newt must now also be considered to be 'beyond the pale,' because Newt treated Romney about as roughly as the Romney supporters treated Newt.
None a bit this makes any sense, and furthermore -
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse1. I really miss Michele Bachmann
2. Newt's South Carolina pro-life ad is great,
3. Ron Paul's isolationism is extreme and some of his supporters are entirely insane, but who else is truly serious in opposing big government? (I hope Paul continues to do rather well, if only because he drives the Establishment up the wall).
4. I do not agree that it is over yet, and that provides great consolation, on this New Hampshire evening.
The election will be about Obama, but people will not reject Obama unless they have what they consider a plausible, Presidential alternative. Jimmy Carter was held in broad contempt in 1980, but the election only broke for Reagan very late when the debate-watchers concluded that he was a safe choice. Hardly anyone thinks Gingrich is "safe," and few independents think that Perry or Santorum are. Voters could disapprove of Obama but be frightened by the GOP nominee and vote for the devil they know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama will have a field day with Romney if he is the nominee for his wall-street prep-boy elitism. Also with his taxes! The reason Romney will not publish his tax returns is that he pays a tax rate (on his multimillion $ income) that is lower than the effective tax rate for anyone on his staff. When this becomes known to the general public, Obama will pound on him that he wants to further lower taxes on people like him that pay very little in taxes anyway, while increasing the taxes on lower-income Americans. A flip-flop multimillionaire, with no core convictions (except that "greed is good"), who pays <15% tax rate and wants to reduce his taxes even further, while regular middle class Americans pay 25-35% in federal taxes, will never win the Presidency! Romney (and his tax rate when his returns are published) will become the poster boy for not extending the Bush tax cuts.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAndy,
Reggie Jackson couldn't have hit it any further out of the park. I agree with you.
The election should be about Obama and his dismal failures. If the Democrats are successful in making the election about something other than Obama, it will be because the GOP doesn't have the guts for a fight.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTo state the obvious...
"Electable" is often related to a Candidate's basis for the position or job. It may seem like a superficial aspect which shows up in polls, but it indicates much more.
It is a poor term "electable", far too generic, but it describes how serious the perceived offering is for the office in consideration. Do they have the credentials, ability, experience, stability, insight, etc?
Simply, Americans will always consider whether a Candidate can be President. No doubt we Americans often get it wrong. But running someone who is clearly not considered a serious offering is just foolish.
Just as foolish as running a Washington Politician or Beltway Insider who has no executive experience, no private sector ability, no economic credentials, etc., at this time. Especially when the American Public holds those connected to the Federal Government in contempt and when the terrible economy is the essential concern of the USA.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. McCarthy,
I can see your point about "electability" being overrated. Certainly we can't know the future and see what will happen, what charges will stick, what will happen with the economy, etc. I also like that you point out that each candidate has weaknesses. It's annoying when someone favors a candidate, say Santorum or Romney, they'll point out all the other candidates weaknesses while completely ignoring their candidate's. I think as conservatives we need to leave some of the negativity behind, there is no perfect candidate that will have no issues that the Dems will try and turn against them. I'd take either Romney or Santorum, and I have Newt Gingrich in large part to thanks for my warming to Romney. Seriously, what is Gingrich still doing in this race? Why didn't he drop out months ago after that "right-wing social engineering" remark? Sheesh.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's odd to hear so-called conservatives claim that Romney is unelectable because he's not conservative enough.
What they're saying is that if Romney is nominated, they're going to stay home. That's ludicrous. Don't cast a vote for president because the more conservative of the two candidates isn't conservative enough for you?
Risk another four years of a marxist in the White House because the only avowed, proven, successful capitalist in the race isn't conservative enough for you?
I'm a Tea Party supporter, and I have my own issues with Romney. But am I going to stay home on election day because he isn't the second coming of Ronald Reagan? Hell, no. I'll take Romney's half a loaf (or 3/4, or whatever) rather than another four years of the moldy, maggot-eaten mess we have now.
Jeeze, is it really that complicated?
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