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Romney and Tax Reform

Fred Barnes and Lawrence Kudlow have each urged Mitt Romney to come out for what the former calls “sweeping tax reform.” The editors of the Wall Street Journal have run a series of editorials including this advice. It’s a great idea, in theory. But each specific tax-reform idea comes with pitfalls. Here are his options.

1. He can go for a reform that dramatically reduces the top tax rate and cuts taxes on investment, but would be scored (in two senses of the word) as a big increase in the deficit. If he chooses this option, he could mitigate the increase in the deficit by coming out for more spending restraint–but the amount of entitlement reform needed to get the budget into sustainable balance without additional large tax cuts is already a hard sell to the public.

2. He can embrace a revenue-neutral reform that includes those pro-growth policies but makes up the revenue by increasing taxes on the middle class generally or large, politically important segments of it such as parents.

3. Romney can avoid either of these two drawbacks by adopting something like the Stein plan. It expands the child credit to help middle-class families and cuts tax rates on investment, but makes up for the revenue forgone by scaling back tax breaks and lowering the floor for the top tax bracket. The expanded child credit polls extremely well, but would be attacked by the Wall Street Journal’s editors and other conservative journalists, think tankers, and activists. Some conventional economists on his own staff would surely balk as well.

4. Don’t come out for any specific big tax reform. The downsides here are that you give up the chance to excite conservatives who want one or to deliver any tangible benefits to voters.

Regular readers will know I hope he opens door number 3 eventually, but it might make sense to linger at door number 4 for a while. If I were him, I’d definitely wait at least until after Obama’s State of the Union address and budget proposal (and maybe all year, while pledging to work with Congress on a pro-family, pro-growth tax reform plan).

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   15

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irobot
   01/12/12 11:46

Attempts at something like #3 usually end on the trash heap of Grover Norquists no tax increase ever for any reason pledge. The other thing about #3 is you would be expanding the percentage of taxpayers who pay no federal income tax. So instead of the "we are the 53%" crowd you would have something like the "we are the 41%" crowd. Likely to be a member of that now exclusive club, I have to say I am not looking forward to it.

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   01/12/12 11:46

Sorry, I don't really fully understand why some conservatives oppose the child tax credit. I get that they don't want favoritism in the tax code, but until you get a flat tax or a fair tax, why not at least make the favoritism work for us? Also, don't get the logic of a tax break for the wealthy but not the middle class. Yes, I firmly believe that class warfare is stupid and counterproductive, that all our taxes are too high and that lowering them on the rich would help create jobs, but why not give a tax break to those who are raising the next generation? I can't remember the author off-hand, but someone here on the Corner was just writing this week about how when the income tax first was implemented, few people paid it. Quite frankly, that doesn't sound like a bad goal to shoot for to me. Though, yes, I fully realize it would require drastic spending cuts and entitlement reform, those are both things conservatives already want.

Ultimately, though the activist part of me wants a big bold vision from Romney, it would be smarter for him to embrace more incremental change. Something like cutting the tax rate on the wealthy and also expanding the child tax credit, while closing some other loopholes would go well in that regard and would please many people because it would offer a little something for everyone.

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   01/12/12 12:06

So what you're saying, Ramesh, is that a well-advised Romney presidency means four more years of the same ambition-wilting, startup-throttling, investment-discouraging tax code?

After three years of spending trillions to build Obama's magic rainbow, it's mystifying why anyone even an inch right of center should place concern over federal spending before the viability of free enterprise. Washington wastes money. Get over it.

You can't tax what doesn't exist. Here's some fuel for Romney's brain trust: shore up that precious revenue with policies that actually catalyze wealth creation.

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   01/12/12 12:19

Maybe he should tackle entitlement reform first with the carrot of reduced, flat tax rates later?
I would just like to see 'progressive' removed from the tax code.

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   01/12/12 12:20

Hasn't Romney already released a tax plan? His campaign website sure has a section with that title on it, and there have been various news articles 'scoring' the impact of his tax plan...

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WootMan
   01/12/12 12:36

You rule out option #1. Your assumption that radical reform needs to represent a dramatic cut in revenue is incorrect. I happen to believe that a dramatic cut in revenue is exactly the medicine the government needs but radical reform of the tax code does not necessarily require this. In addition, to view a reform of the tax code through the opaque lens of the farcical "scoring" process is a mistake. The public is aware that OMB scoring has little relation to reality and should not be the context in which any reform is viewed.

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   01/12/12 12:43

MyKu:

Mitt's tax plan involves
the same cash supposedly
being spent "better".

------------------

The only "sweeping" going on would result in conservatism ending up under some rug.

Electability.

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ricnalli
   01/12/12 12:59

I just heard Newt's PAC add on Rush. It is a devastating attack on his electability. It will not be defeated by Mitt's embrace of creative destruction or the supply side misdirection Fred Barnes urges him to belatedly adopt. Newt's attack is working, as Mitt's SC numbers are dropping. It is comical to hear his surrogates complain about Newt going negative.

No matter. We are doomed - unless (i) Newt wins, AND (ii) a certain fat governor from New Jersey or thin governor from Indiana jumps or is forced in to the race.

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monalisa123
   01/12/12 13:30

Or he could just do nothing which will probably be what happens. And that will be just fine with NRO.

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   01/12/12 13:53

Instead of coming out for tax reform per se...coming out for spending reform in to form of large goals for the House and Senate to argue over. I would love to see a 5,4,3,2 plan. The first year government spengin is cut 5% across the board...every department...every agency...you can do thin with administrative cuts. The next year 4%, etc. Then campaign on having Congress actually do its job....like actually passing a budget. I think the voters would love it and the markets would soar. But he might be too much of a thinker to rest his campaign on a big idea.

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   01/12/12 14:20

This is at least the second post in memory Ramesh has made about tax credits for kids.

Sure, I'd love to get more money back for my kid, but I really want to remove all tax credits, period. The kids should be tax deductions (you're dividing earnings by number of members in the family).

Credits just become welfare, and I'm honestly sick of hearing stories of people gaming the system (I'm not talking random stories on the web, I'm talking people I know and people they know) to get more back in tax refunds than they pay in taxes, including FICA taxes.

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alan borrows
   01/12/12 18:40

There is redistribution in this country - via government-imposed taxes - but it is distribution of income from the middle and upper middle class (who pay 25-35% in taxes) to the super rich (who pay only 15% taxes and only on income that they are unable to hide in one of the numerous loopholes and tax shelters available to them).

The only way to fix this income redistribution and bring tax fairness is:
1. Tax all income at exactly the same rates. The income of the super rich (capital gains and dividents) should be taxed at the same marginal rates as regular income - just as when federal taxes were originally introduced in the USA.
2. Close ALL tax shelters and loopholes that the super rich use to hide a large part of their income.
3. Reform (or, better, eliminate) the AMT to only target the super rich - as originally intended! Now the AMT mostly targets the middle class!
4. Introduce new tax brackets for incomes over $1M and $10M. When federal taxes were originally introduced in the USA only incomes of over $1.2M (in 2011 adjusted $) were taxed, at progressiv­e rates, but now there is not even a separate tax bracket for incomes larger that $1M.

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alan borrows
   01/12/12 18:44

Business tax rates should go down. Capital gains and divident tax rates, especially on incomes over $1M, should go up. Regular income tax rates should stay the same. A new tax rate should be introduced for incomes over $1M. The AMT should be revised to target only millionaires as originally intended! Actually ideally all income should be taxed at the same tax rates - as it was when income taxes were originally introduced in the USA, but unfortunately the super rich have bought and perverted the system so that their taxes (capital gains and dividents) are much lower that the taxes on the middle class income.

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PeteG2
   01/12/12 19:43

A vote for Romney is a vote against your own self interest ... unless you're a millionaire. He wants to preserve these favored tax rates for the wealthy investor class...

Billionaire Warren Buffett paid 11% "total taxes" (federal, state, local, indirect taxes - including corporatetaxes) on $8 billion annual investment gains while a single minimum wage worker pays 37% "total taxes" from her $14,500 annual salary. See spreadsheet at External Link 

The top 1% in the US have gone from owning 22% to 40% of the nation's wealth in the last thirty years. It's largely due to the tax cuts for the wealthy investor class, started under Reagan. They were supposed to encourage investment and trickle down to strengthen the economy but have done the opposite. Since the Reagan tax cuts, average annual GDP growth has dropped by one-quarter. Why? Because we've had multiple recessions, triggered by investment bubbles, in turn caused by the favored tax treatment of investment income (via principles of supply-and-demand - Econ 101).

I propose that ALL federal, state, and local government services are funded with a reformed, simplified Income Tax and a new Net-worth Tax (a few percent of fortunes over $1million). Eliminate ALL other taxes. The reform would reduce each middle class annual total tax bill by thousands, slash the deficit; and eliminate the market-distorting tax breaks for investing that are ruining our economy and hobbling this country's ability to remain a force for good in the world. See the External Link  for more.

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PeteG2
   01/12/12 19:45

A vote for Romney is a vote against your own self interest ... unless you're a millionaire. He wants to preserve these favored tax rates for the wealthy investor class...

Billionaire Warren Buffett paid 11% "total taxes" (federal, state, local, indirect taxes - including corporatetaxes) on $8 billion annual investment gains while a single minimum wage worker pays 37% "total taxes" from her $14,500 annual salary. See spreadsheet at External Link 

The top 1% in the US have gone from owning 22% to 40% of the nation's wealth in the last thirty years. It's largely due to the tax cuts for the wealthy investor class, started under Reagan. They were supposed to encourage investment and trickle down to strengthen the economy but have done the opposite. Since the Reagan tax cuts, average annual GDP growth has dropped by one-quarter. Why? Because we've had multiple recessions, triggered by investment bubbles, in turn caused by the favored tax treatment of investment income (via principles of supply-and-demand - Econ 101).

I propose that ALL federal, state, and local government services are funded with a reformed, simplified Income Tax and a new Net-worth Tax (a few percent of fortunes over $1million). Eliminate ALL other taxes. The reform would reduce each middle class annual total tax bill by thousands, slash the deficit; and eliminate the market-distorting tax breaks for investing that are ruining our economy and hobbling this country's ability to remain a force for good in the world. See the External Link  for more.

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