Instead of getting a bounce, Romney’s poll numbers are sinking in South Carolina. As I suggested, this ad attack is powerful. He’s followed it up by painting him as governing pro-abortion. Krauthammer is right — Romney’s got to show he can respond.
If these attacks work in a Republican primary, imagine how effective Obama will find them in November.
BTW, no signs yet that the negative ads are hurting Gingrich, either.
That chart you link shows a green line going down in flames the past week (Gingrich), and a purplish line going up just as dramatically as the green one goes down, then more or less flat-lining (Romney). This jibes with nothing you just wrote.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou have to compare the one poll on 1/11 with the older polls. That's what she's looking at. If more polls corrborate the most recent poll, then it's clear something is happening. Could be an outlier though.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou have to compare the one poll on 1/11 with the older polls. That's what she's looking at. If more polls corrborate the most recent poll, then it's clear something is happening. Could be an outlier though.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe chart includes several polls and shows the average. Look at the most recent poll to see how things could quickly change. If the latest poll reflects reality... Gingrich could end up taking SC.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Sinking" would be a bit of an overstatement- or just wishful thinking on your part. Romney may or may win SC but one thing is for sure- Newt Gingirch has disgraced himself and will never be President. If he questions Romney's character again, Romney has every right to point to Gingrich's disgraceful behavior with female staffers while married.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaggie,
You seem to be basing your argument on the Insider Advantage poll that has Romney at 23% (the other recent polls have him at 37, 30, and 27). But Romney has actually risen in the Insider Advantage poll, increasing from 19 in mid-December to 23 now. I'm not quite shure this data supports your theory at all.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe cannot allow Obama to win! Romney will not be able to beat this guy. God please vote for Gingrich. You may not like him, but he can save this country!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf the Gingrich attack ads work in South Carolina, it tells us two things. First, Gingrich's critics are correct when they say he can't be trusted to do what he says he will do if it stands in the way of what he wants. Second, the citizens of South Carolina are easily manipulated.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe polling firm Insider Advantage CEO is Matt Towery, who is a former chairman to one of Newt's political organization. The two have longstanding and well documented ties to one another.
To base this assumption that Newt's attacks are working on a single suspect poll is absurd, especially since Insider Advantage is hardly a well known and reputable polling firm.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA month before the NH primary, Insider Advantage had Romney at 29%, with an 8 point lead over Paul. All other polling firms were well up in the 30's for Romney at the time. Also, the Suffolk poll, taken at the same time, gave Romney 39%, which is where he finished.
Nice try, Maggie.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe chart actually shows the opposite of what she claims.
Anyone else getting a little uncomfortable reading Maggie Gallagher's increasingly unhinged posts?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat is what I see too. Since the last Insider Advantage poll on 12/18,
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney: +4
Gingrich: -10
Santorum: +10
Paul: +6
Right here.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUnhinged? Really?
So, anyone you disagree with on anything must be unhinged, right?
When it comes to changes in poll numbers, all we can do is make educated guesses. That you disagree with a particular educated guess and prefer a different educated guess doesn't make the person you are disagreeing with unhinged.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo, anyone you disagree with on anything must be unhinged, right?
No and there's no reason to think so.
When it comes to changes in poll numbers, all we can do is make educated guesses.
No, we can analyze the polls number and make reasonable conclusions. A dullard looks at facts and then claims he can only make guess as to what those facts mean.
That you disagree with a particular educated guess and prefer a different educated guess doesn't make the person you are disagreeing with unhinged.
Wrong again, When someone repeatedly makes claims that are contrary to facts, I begin to wonder if they have become untethered from reality. The increasingly desperate attempts by this women to convince us Mitt is losing traction have a Baghdad Bob feel to them.
Congratulations on being 100% wrong.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell said...
"When someone repeatedly makes claims that are contrary to facts, I begin to wonder if they have become untethered from reality"
What is worse, we see it from the sound side a lot these days.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes.
Perhaps just tired, instead of "uncomfortable".
But yes...
Recently Ms. Gallagher tried to romanticize Newt's self interested political gaming, into some fantasy of Gingrich being on an heroic suicide mission to stop Mr. Romney for some other offering.
I believe Maggie favors Mr. Santorum, and perhaps is engaged in a lot of wishful thinking.
Newt Gingrich is not truly helping anyone, not even the Democratic Party. Newt is just hurting himself again, his associates, and the reputation of those who once advocated for his Candidacy.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseShe is referencing the Insider Advantage poll within that RCP link. It is the only poll in the current RCP average that is after NH. In that poll, Romney is down to 23 which is lower than the three pre-NH polls. It is just one poll, but her point is valid.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf you look at the trend for each poll, Romney is rising and Newt is crashing.
from the previous to current:
Insider Advantage -- Romney increased 4 (trend 15->19->23), Newt decreased 10 (trend 38->31->21)
Rasmussen -- Romney increased 4, Newt increased 5 (the previous poll was beginning of November so looks like Newt has risen and fallen back between polls)
CNN/Time -- Romney increased 17, Newt decreased 25
Ignoring the PPP since the previous was way back in August.
It may be that Newts attacks are hurting Romney. But the polling data available doesn't give us enough info to say, at least not what is available at RCP.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe 11/28/11 Insider Advantage poll had Romney at 15 and Gingrich at 38. By 12/18/11 it was Romney19 and Gingrich 31. The current poll has Romney 23 and Gingrich 21. I realize that Gingrich and his supporters don't understand the free market system but surely they understand poll numbers and directional trends. Hint: Romney rising, Gingrich falling, Towery spinning.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse