Okay, Andrew, as National Review’s in-house demography bore and at the risk of wearying readers of both my recent apocalyptic tomes, I’ll bite. You say:
It is a stretch to claim that Europe’s troubles stem from a supposed “demographic winter”.
Whether or not that’s what Rick Santorum said, it’s certainly the case that “demographic winter” makes Europe’s troubles all but impossible to solve.
As you have observed, demographic decline doesn’t have to be an existential threat. The population of my town in New Hampshire peaked in the 1820 census and then dropped steadily until 1940, and we survived it because (unlike the latter-day US and EU) we hadn’t erected a system of government that depended on looting the future to bribe the present. Sovereign debt, like any other kind, presupposes there will be someone around to pay it off. In much of Europe, there won’t be. In Greece, 100 grandparents have 42 grandchildren – in a land where far too many retire in their fifties and spend their final third of a century living at public expense. Is it remotely likely that the debts run up by 100 Mediterranean deadbeats will be repaid by 42 Mediterranean deadbeats? You follow Continental affairs as closely as anyone here, and you know the answer to that.
The Germans, French and Dutch have healthier trend lines, but only because, as you note, they’ve imported huge populations that will inflict profound transformational changes. That, too, threatens the basic social compact: A decade or two on, is it likely that Ahmed and Mohammed will agree to be ever more punitively taxed to maintain the lavish retirements of Fritz and François? Or that, in the south-western United States circa 2025, a young largely Hispanic population will wish to prop up Medicare for an elderly largely white Boomer population who’ve enjoyed a level of American prosperity their successors will never know.
You assure us that demographic obsession is:
…akin to arguing that the United States risks starvation because there are fewer farm workers than there once were. Times and productivity have moved on.
Up to a point. At the republic’s founding, it took 90 percent of the workforce to produce enough food to feed the nation. Now it takes less than three per cent. But you still need people to sell the stuff to. When 100 grandparents have 42 grandchildren, how do you grow your economy in an ever shrinking market? Where once were 100 babies for your diaper business, now there are only 42. And, fifteen years on, where once were 100 teens for your caterwauling gangsta rap record company, now a mere 42. And then only 42 potential car buyers, and maybe 21 home owners… You need a hell of an export market to beat back the arithmetic of a remorselessly withering customer base.
You have a point to this extent. Sooner or later, some or other nation will figure a way to buck demography. I would reckon the Japanese will be first, if only because they have no immigrants, don’t want any, and are sufficiently unsqueamish about these things already to be racing ahead with robot waitresses and humanoid nurses for the old folks’ home. It’s not hard to imagine Sony, Yamaha et al cheerfully applying their ingenuity to developing post-humans for “the jobs humans won’t do”.
But the rest of the west? Old and broke seems the way to bet, still frantically kicking the can down the road, even as the leg becomes too wizened, clotted and arthritic to nudge it more than another inch or two.
I asked for the Great Steyn-Stuttaford Demography Throwdown, and I got it. Didn't particularly care for the anti-Hispanic angle (though I realize it's almost required on NRO). After all, young'uns of any ethnicity ain't gonna love supporting the U.S. Geezer Army. But otherwise, Steyn didn't disappoint.
It's kind of unfair, though. A great sense of humor against a nonexistent sense of humor. (I'll let you decide which is which. It shouldn't be hard.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat anti-Hispanic angle? Have looked at the demographics in the Southwest? Have you looked at who is having children and who isn't. Don't start acting like Andrew Stuttaford, ignoring the facts.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt wasn't so much anti-Hispanic as anti-Boomer.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCasey,
You're being way too sensitive. If the Southwest was being inundated with a growing population of Swedes, Mr. Steyn would have referred to 42 guys named Lars not enthused about supporting 100 aging Boomers. The issue is the numbers.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLars who came over from Sweden will have a totally different world outlook than Juan who moved up from Guatemala. Retirees in America don’t live all that differently than retired Swedes. Only the very wealthy in Guatemala can hope for an existence similar to an American retiree.
Asking Juan to support the lifestyle of an American retiree would be like asking a modern American to support the lifestyle of Brad Pitt and Angela Jolie.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTPS,
"Asking Juan to support the lifestyle of an American retiree would be like asking a modern American to support the lifestyle of Brad Pitt and Angela Jolie."
Haha - or maybe more relevant an analogy would be "like asking a modern American to support the lifestyle of American politicians in Washington". Oh, wait a minute - that's already happening!
The point Steyn's making is that - regardless of ethnicity - no young person is going to feel good about paying onerous taxes to support the retirement of old people who are living much better than the young person can afford to live (after taxes).
By the way, will there be an uproar if Lars is asked for his papers, or will there be a frenzied storm over the implicit racist attitude against 6' tall, blonde guys?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe squeezed middle & upper-middle class in Calif has been paying "onerous taxes for quite a few years already, supporting the lavish retirements of Govt labor union workers.
It's not unusual in CA for a fireman or policeman or state trooper, having retired at age 50, to be receiving $200K+ in pension payments indexed to inflation, and generous health care with very low co-pays.
Furthermore, a significant fraction of these workers mysteriously develop a "disability" immediately before their retirement , making 1/2 their pensions exempt from state (and possibly federal) income taxes.
Anybody care to hazard a guess as to which political party these people overwhelmingly vote for?
Talk about "looting the future to bribe the present".
The dwindling and beleagured middle class private sector people can move out of Calif to more fiscally sane states. What happens when the whole country has gone done this path? Not going to be many countries wanting retired americans, unless they are independently wealthy & self sufficient.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Asking Juan to support the lifestyle of an American retiree would be like asking a modern American to support the lifestyle of Brad Pitt and Angela Jolie."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell yes, and no. If the immigrant in question knew he/she was going to better his situation sufficiently, I think it would be a good deal. Face it, thats what the west offers third world immigrants now. Most come to Canada or the US in an effort to better their situation, and they do so, even if they have to work harder than we spoiled westerners are willing to. That has been the pattern in the past, anyway. My Dad came here for freedom and got it, along with a lot of hard labour that is. He didn't mind supporting old Canadians, just so long as he could expect the same in his old age. There's the rub that makes calamity of deficit spending.
Hollywood lives on extraordinary tax breaks. We do support the lifestyles of Brad Pit and Angelina Jolie.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI would like you to understand that many qualified or above qualified workers/ professionals from Latin America are not allowed to enter US, even if they have another citizenship that lets them. So, if you have "Juan" that will not like to support American retirees, as he does not have "the education" to give for the pension plan he will enjoy in future, it's because your gov't is allowing only poor, unqualified and always government supported Latin American workers, to enter and work even as illegals. Once I raised up this topic in front of an immigration officer and he yelled at me saying that I should have pity for illegals as they are living hardships in their countries. Officers as him are also the ones responsible of what will happen in America.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSeeing immigrant Swedes complain about the fruits of socialism would be rich. But then, perhaps those Swedes would be the ones who came here to escape their socialist utopia only to find themselves smack dab in the middle of another one.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"If the Southwest was being inundated with a growing population of Swedes, Mr. Steyn would have referred to 42 guys named Lars not enthused about supporting 100 aging Boomers."
I don't know about that. Let's face it, Hispanics ain't exactly NRO's fave ethinic group. In fact, if Steyn wants to persuade folks outside NRO, he should probably drop the ethnic stuff altogether.
Otherwise, his post was dead on (no pun intended about aging boomers).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCasey,
"I don't know about that. Let's face it, Hispanics ain't exactly NRO's fave ethinic group."
Well, I'd ask you to make a case to substantiate that charge, but obviously it's just a throw away line ... not one that's 'make'able.
Steyn used Hispanics in his Southwest reference because that's who's there! He used Mohammed reference to Europe's analogy because "that's who's there!"
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI understand the tendency to cringe at the mention of any ethnic group, but there's a difference between stating demographic facts and racism. It is unfortunately the offhand, and completely undocumented (no pun intended) comments like "hispanics ain't exactly NROs have ethnic group" that cast this discussion in precisely the wrong terms. The lie that conservatives are racist as a group in any way is never (and I use that word advisedly) proven or even demonstrated on any level, and yet continues to be assumed largely due to inane comments like Casey's.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI didn't find the comment to be anti-Hispanic. In fact, I found it quite the opposite. I read it to say that the Hispanic debt bagholders will not be as clueless and easily hoodwinked as our present population.
On the other hand, if they become sufficiently "Americanized", they may very well be much like the current US "youth" cohort (which includes an army of 30 year olds in their sixth year of general ed studies). If so, they too will be too busy watching UFC bouts, endless p*rno streams and playing idiotic Zynga games on their handheld toys to put up a stink.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd sometimes the truth is not pleasant to face.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm sure you are correct. Those young'uns will be happy to stop sending money back to their relatives in Mexico so they can support old white folks in the US. This is especially true since La Raza is making sure that they are well versed in diversity politics.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat anti-Hispanic angle? It must be a liberal knee jerk reaction to any mention of culture or ethnicity to assume that a conservative or a libertarian is a bigot of some sort.
It doesn't play out well for any country if there is an increasing immigrant population who have little desire or incentive to become part of the culture and habits of that country. It doesn't matter who they are or where they come from. Either the citizens of the host country have to change to accommodate the new arrivals, or they have to have the will and the numbers in terms of population to insist that the new arrivals fit in. Apparently, the United States may have neither the will or the population to maintain its present culture and level of functioning. I don't blame the immigrants in this case. I blame abortion and liberal anti-American, anti-family policies, but that's a whole other subject.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"But the rest of the west? Old and broke seems the way to bet, still frantically kicking the can down the road, even as the leg becomes too wizened, clotted and arthritic to nudge it more than another inch or two."
Note to self: before reading Steyn again, put the pistol in the bedroom and the clip in the garage. The inevitable depression will be less dangerous.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat's called reality bud.
I know Boomers are more about fantasies because they can dictate things the way they like and avoid ever coming to a reckoning, but pretty soon Boomers won't be able to pretend anymore!
Steyn is right..if people heed these types of warnings we may change and it will seem like he was an alarmist, but that won't change that he's right about how screwed we are at this particular moment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse