At one point, it looked possible that Romney might win South Carolina and Florida, in which case the primary race would effectively be over. A South Carolina win for Gingrich, which looks likely, means that the race is going to go on for several more weeks. I prefer Romney to the other candidates on offer. But I nonetheless think it’s a good thing that the race seems likely to become a long contest pitting Romney against one main rival. (Even if I would have preferred someone other than Gingrich to play that role, for reasons nicely described here.)
First, as Sarah Palin rightly said, a longer race gives candidates more time to hone their skills (Romney’s Bain answer last night was the best he has given). It also gives voters more time to reach an informed judgment.
Second, as I wrote when I first made the case for Romney, his record does not merit a kind of nomination by acclamation. I think he’d be a better candidate and president than the alternatives, but conservatives have valid reservations that ought to be registered.
Third, active campaigns in more states might lead to stronger parties in those states, which after all was the reason the Republicans adopted the current delegate-selection rules.
Fourth, Romney will be a stronger candidate if he overcomes some political adversity rather than coasts from success to success without ever really being tested.
Fifth, for Romney to lock up the nomination early would mean that in many states the primary would become a contest between a not-very-active Romney campaign and an energetic Ron Paul movement seeking to send delegates to the convention to win concessions rather than the nomination. With no other candidates on offer, Paul’s vote totals would include a lot of die-hard Romney foes who would not vote for him were Gingrich or Santorum in the mix. Keeping the race going reduces the chance that Paul comes to the convention with enough delegates to fight over whether the platform should replace all references to “Israel” with “the Zionist entity,” or whatever they decide to demand.
Sixth, if Romney wins the nomination in a long race it will be harder to attribute it to a fractured opposition, and he might even win a majority of the votes.
Romney still has a better shot at the nomination than anyone else. The people working for his campaign may not like what’s coming tomorrow, but even some of them might come to appreciate that a South Carolina setback will ultimately work out for the best.
"Romney’s Bain answer last night was the best he has given"
Really? I must have been watching a different debate. Maybe I'm not recalling the exchange correctly, but I thought he was asked a question about a specific company that Bain was involved with. In fact, one that was discussed publicly prior to the debate, so he should have anticipated it. I don't think he answered that at all. I like Romney, and I've been supporting the guy all along, but making believe he's not in serious trouble is not going to help him. Right now, he's in the 150th lap at the Indy 500, he's just exploded a tire, and the crew is sitting in the pit picking boogers out of their noses and staring up at the sky.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney specifically answered the question about the mill in Georgetown in Monday night's debate. I don't know which way you are leaning, he'll be much better served to make the critiques about free market capitalism in the general if he wins. Responding to every half baked criticism of every deal Bain did would be death by a thousand cuts in the general.
Gingrich is clearly backing off. Even when bringing it up, he limited his critique to over leveraging the company. I'm still thoroughly put out with him over it and don't think he used it to sharpen Romney's skills, but rather than to play to the lowest common denominator of ignorance in a state with 10% unemployment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThanks for the info, jgs. I missed the Monday debate, and so I'm glad to hear that he addressed it. Still, last night looks like a pretty strong Gingrich victory to me. Romney's taking on water. He better tighten up his game, or he's not going to make it to the general. I don't care what the beltway wise men have to say; they're wrong about half the time anyway.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGingrich is completely untenable. He's personally and intellectually undisciplined, completely unlikable over the long haul and believes that Fannie and Freddie are "capitalism" and "Global Warming" actually has something to do with environment .
His nomination would destroy the Republican party, lead to the loss of the House, Senate, Governorships and a complete 1964-type obliteration of conservatism. God only knows what Obama will do with the country after this mess!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't really see the benefits to Romney should the nominating race continue:
1. Romney has already attempted a run for president in 2008 and gave a strong challenge and given the fact that he has changed positions on so many issues and has still managed to remain the front-runner four years later is a pretty good indication that he has "honed his skills" to the max. Anybody who has done what Romney has done is pretty set with his skills. Every day of the race has been a repeat of the day before for some months now and in sports that leads to a diminishing of "skills." How much more informed can the voters get? The race has been going on since last year and the candidates still left in the race have been around for some time now. None of them can claim to be new to the process. Romney ran in 2008, Gingrich has been involved in national politics for a LONG time now, Santorum is roughly the same as Gingrich and Paul ran in 2008 as well.
2. Conservatives do have reservations that should be heard on Romney, but what other candidate do these people support if they no longer like Romney? If Gingrich is the other man in the two-man race, aren't there just as many reservations for conservatives on him as there are for Romney? What's the point of dragging that out?
3. Makes sense, but the true activism comes from the grassroots, and if Romney is the preferred nominee then he better do all he can to come out strong against Obama, but I don't think that will happen. There is not enough grassroots conservative enthusiasm out there for Romney alone and there is no indication that he will "take the Mitts off" against Obama. Where would he do this? Obamacare? Bailouts?
4. Again, Romney ran for president in 2008 and went through some tough primaries. This nomination race has been going on since last year with all of the pointless debates and such. How much more testing is necessary?
5. Paul is the only candidate that can draw the type of enthusiasm to match Obama's during a campaign. Not saying Paul is a good candidate but, once again, it will take strong grassroots involvement to beat Obama. Newt, Romney, and Santorum offer none of the passion of Paul and his supporters. Paul's foreign policy vision is one that is catching on with America and one that used to be a mainstay of the Republican Party (think Robert Taft) while Newt, Romney and Santorum all represent a neo-conservative approach.
6. Or (and more likely) if Romney wins in a long race it can be attributed to the fact that he was the "best" candidate in a very weak field and it took a large amount of time to pick him from the discount shelf.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Keeping the race going reduces the chance that Paul comes to the convention with enough delegates to fight over whether the platform should replace all references to “Israel” with “the Zionist entity,” or whatever they decide to demand."
What a cretinous comment to make. I might say it is unworthy of you, but we know that would be a lie.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSeventh, the longer the race continues, the greater the chance the GOP can be saved from wasting its nomination on Romney.
Tangentially, why is it that Ron Paul's detractors are so obsessed with theories about "Zionism" and Israel and such? It's like Paul is a scab on their face they can't refrain from constantly touching, while Israel is an itch on their shoulders they can't keep from trying to scratch. Does everything about Mitt Romney remind Paul detractors of Paul and of Israel?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA longer contested race will, I believe, greatly benefit the conservative cause (if not based on the politics of personal destruction). I am not so sure that it will benefit Governor Romney.
Paul generates far more natural enthusiasm among his supporters (many of whom are potential libertarian recruits for the GOP). Newt is smart, fast on his feet, and fights back hard against a media establishment which is simultaneously elitist, leftist and absurdly in the tank for Lord Obama. Santorum is solid and sincere.
Salamanders of the world, unite! I think, given the four choices, that Newt is our guy. I am also delighted that far more GOP primary voters and caucus goers may have a voice in the choice this year; for that long-overdue broadening of the process (regardless of the eventual outcome) is the most important aspect of all.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I'm correct, and the most important decision this country will make since Social Security was enacted, i.e., whether Obamacare is to be repealed or irrevocably implemented, then the November election should largely be a referendum on that.
Mitt Romney is absolutely the worst possible nominee we could choose to effectively articulate that argument.
If the Supreme Court invalidates Obamacare in total this year, it might not matter so much, but I'm not willing to rely on them. We need somebody who will help us win the argument this fall even if the Supreme Court upholds the law. It's too important. We don't get a mulligan on this one.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAll of which means Romney's campaign has internals indicating he's going to get pounded tomorrow.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt has been a tough week for Romney.
The good news for him is that of the next ten races, South Carolina is the toughest for him. Florida is next and he is the only one with the kind of money that is needed to compete there on TV. After that is Nevada, which he won last time and is the favorite to this time. The other candidates are relying on South Carolina to give them a boost to keep going, Romney is not, he has significant campaign organizational infrastructure set up in states beyond South Carolina where Newt and Santorum are building that on the fly. His main rival for the nomination, if it is Gingrich, has serious temperamental issues that will from time to time unsettle primary voters (even though they seem to have the memory retention of a gold fish and will forget if the issues don't flare up just before voting), and is extremely volatile and will likely step in it again and again with voters he needs when he speaks. He is at his worse when he thinks he is winning, look for his foot to be inserted in his mouth then.
This race is still Romney's to lose, but he going to have to retool a bit in order to prevent this thing from lasting until summer and spending all of his money on beating Newt and not Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHello Ramesh Ponnoru,
Very good analysis.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTranslation: Yes, my guy, Romney, is a weak-ass nominee who can't rally conservatives, but, hey, at least this way he'll end up getting the nomination in the end anyway and we won't have to really debate the issues Ron Paul is raising and resort to our usual tactic of demogoguery and hurling charges of anti-semitism around. Like the Left does.
Lame, Ponnuru. Capital L.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse