On Monday, in a move that would have been unimaginable only weeks ago, the European Union outlawed Iranian oil imports. The 27 states of the European Union together import 660,000 barrels of crude from Iran each day, making them collectively the second largest importer of the Islamic Republic’s oil, after oil-starved China.
Whether or not the sanctions persuade Iran to stop enriching uranium or developing a nuclear weapon, they’re certainly having an effect. In the past two weeks, the Iranian rial has fallen to an all-time low against the dollar.
In November, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Western suspicions that Tehran’s atomic program contains a military dimension. Since then, President Obama has barred U.S. companies from doing certain business with foreign entities that conduct transactions with the Central Bank of Iran. The U.S. has long prohibited the purchase of Iranian gas and oil, but the CBI processes most of Iran’s vital energy revenue for countries that still buy it.
Though the EU’s chief’s diplomats agreed to respect ongoing deals to purchase Iranian oil and gas products until July 1, at that point all residual European business must end. No new oil deal can be struck during the interim period.
The one-two punch of U.S. and European punitive measures is taking a huge financial toll on Iran’s already wobbly financial system. Former Iranian intelligence minister Ali Fallahian, a member of the country’s powerful and opaque Assembly of Experts, called Monday for Iran’s regime to close the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow shipping corridor permits a third of the global energy supply to pass through its lanes.
While the U.S. and the EU do not advocate regime change in Iran, sanctions could breathe life into Iran’s struggling pro-democracy movement. Contrary to popular belief, robust economic sanctions have not unified the population against the West. Since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rigged the elections of June 2009, the Iranian government has been increasingly unpopular, and the people widely blame it for the country’s worsening economic situation.
The millions who took to the streets of Tehran in the aftermath of that election arguably constituted the first full-blown Middle Eastern reform movement. Since that time, despotic regimes have fallen in Tunisia and Egypt, and others — like Bashar Assad’s dictatorship in Syria — are on the ropes, but the Iranians have had no such luck. The unprecedented U.S. and European sanctions will not work overnight. By early summer, it will be clearer whether or not they’re changing Iran’s behavior.
Given Chinese and Russian resistance to a seventh round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran, the U.S. and its allies will likely have to continue working outside the U.N. The U.N. Charter provides for a comprehensive embargo against a country that violates U.N. resolutions, so the Security Council could issue a “complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.” But the Russians and the Chinese will surely prevent the U.N. from doing anything of the kind.
It is a vexing predicament for the U.S. and the EU. Apart from Israel, the U.S., the U.K., and the Netherlands are the only three countries that have declared their refusal to live with a nuclear Iran. If these latest sanctions, crushing as they are, prove ineffective, this fall will bring hard decisions.
— Benjamin Weinthal is a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
This is all Obama's fault!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSilly rabbit! "Blame" is for kids!
So long as everyone knows for certain that Obama is not to blame for anything that happens on his watch, who cares to lay blame?
Obama would have to be President for 1,000 years to begin to be responsible for anything that happens during his administration except for the vacations he and his family enjoy.
He's only the most powerful man in the country.
Who's dumb enough to hold him responsible for anything?
That includes our "economic recovery", right, genius?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Assembly of Experts"
Wow, that sounds like a Democrat outfit that conducts working lunches from the Judson Grille.
It's amazing how left-wing socialists mimic their tyrannical counterparts.
"National Socialist German Workers Party"
Change the "national" bit to "anti-National", and "German" to "American", and that's right out of the American leftist playbook.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseConsequences:
1) Iran announces that it no longer will abide by the NNPT.
2) Iran begins to sell oil to China in larger quantities.
3) Iran continues to buy technical know-how and weapons from China.
(sarcasm on)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSaudi Arabia announces that:
1) they are now a democracy and will hold elections.
2) Even women are allowed to vote and drive.
3) Beheadings for crimes, other than in capital crimes, are now abolished.
(sarcasm off)
Oh?
Iran once followed the NNPT?
I never knew they ever even signed it.
Are you sure you didn't turn on the sarcasm switch earlier than you noted?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"I never knew they ever even signed it."
Seriously? You did not know?
The reason that the IAEA has access to Iranian facilities for monitoring is due to Iran being a signatory to the NNPT.
Go to this link:
External Link
On the right-side, expand the NPT line, then click on "alphabetical order"
3 countries of significance not under NNPT: India, Israel, Pakistan
I was under the impression the above was common knowledge.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"despotic regimes have fallen in Tunisia and Egypt" -- and replaced with what, you don't say. Not all good news.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTo answer the question posed in the banner to this post:
No, but new oil sanctions from the Obama administration could very well be the game changer here in the United States.
We'll all either be paying European prices for the gas we need, $9/gallon, or paying $60,000 for an ugly, inefficient, inconvenient unsafe Yugo that serves as an obnoxious status symbol for suburban housewives expert in wasting their hubbies' money.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCan somebody explain to me how Europe's sanctions will harm Iran when "oil starved china" could easily pick up the slack?
It's not like Europe is just going to do without. They will import more gas/oil from Russia or another oil producer. That oil producer will then have less to sell to China, and China will buy it from Iran. That is why we have a global market for oil. Is China incapable of consuming Iranian oil? Do they not know how to read the farsi opening instructions on the barrel?
I could be wrong, but something tells me that come July, we will see that there isn't 600,000 barrel/day drop in oil consumption for the world or for Iran.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf only we could drill here, drill now, to get oil out that would 'replace' that lost oil from Iran.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAn embargo pretty much is an act of war. While I think we ought to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, it seems as if the goal is either to march us right up to the point of saying "we tried everything we have to go to war" or provoking the Iranians enough so they attack us and then we can go to war anyway. Except the first option was tried by Bush II with Iraq and it didn't really work in the court of public opinion. Only option 2, provoking the Iranians to war will work. Except for the fact that the Iranians seem to be content to do nothing until they get the bomb (why would they do otherwise!)
If these are the two options, I submit they are both cowardly, and we should simply be up front about it. Because it's surely not effective to deter other nations by saying that "If you don't stop developing WMD, we'll execute a 20+ year long strategy to get you to stop! (so get working on those weapons really quickly!)" Simple tell Iran they have 2 weeks to open their doors, if not the bombing begins. -- that's the effective way to get done what we wanted.
I'll just add, for a so-called "Christian" nation the above option is certainly not the most Christ-like. It may be practical, and effective, but there is nothing that reminds me of Christ in that approach.
I just want to point out this dichotomy to those in the Republican party who think our politics ought to hinge on what is "Christian".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I decide to buy from Wal-Mart instead of Target, I've committed an act of war against Target???
A blockade is an act of war. Refusing to buy from someone you don't like isn't.
You need to get your hysterical rants right.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat a difference it makes to have a calm strategic President -- Obama -- who didn't do what Bush/McCain would have done: bomb, bomb Iran. Look at the difference between regime change under recent Democratic Presidents (Clinton -- Serbia) and Obama (long list) and Bush (Afghanistan, Iraq). The Democrats cost less money, fewer American sons and daughters, and add to our prestige internationally.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe love blind ways of the liberal. Absolutely awe inspiring in their inanities.
Anyone idiotic enough to try and compare Serbia to either Iraq or Iran, straight up, has already proven that not only is he not playing with a full deck, he has no desire to even if knew what one was.
Is Jon actually stupid enough to believe that Bush/McCain would have bombed Iran?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs Jon actually stupid enough to believe that anything Obama has done has actually helped, much less accelerated any of the (long list) of liberation movements?
Is Jon actually stupid enough to believe that any of that (long list) of liberation movements has actually benefited the people of any of those countries and will wind up being good for the world 10 years from now?
I think it was yesterday, my B-i-L left NPR on in my car, and all I got was the Ambassador to Russia talking about Obama's foreign policy. He said that we do not push democracy on other Nations, because different cultures and countries take different routes to get to Democracy. I don't remember if he explicity mentioned Egypt, et. al., or if they were just strongly implied.
Why he (they) assume these places are actually on a course towards Democracy, I can't say. Just because they held one election, does not mean they will continue to do so and not become theocracies.
That being said, I would have more hope for any Iranian uprising that eventually suceeds.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy understanding is that what the EU has agreed to do is not sign any new oil contracts with Iran. Current contracts run through July, so the flow of oil from Iran to the EU ( and of cash from the EU to Iran) continues uninterrupted until then.
My understanding is, too, that the agreement leaves enforcement with the individual EU member states: each enforces its own compliance with the agreement.
In other words, that there's much less here than meets the eye. Little or no consequences for the European oil trade with Iran.
Are these not the facts?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLooks like Iran is now selling their oil for gold from India and maybe China and Russia.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSanction will hurt only the average Iranians- sanction did not bring down Saddam, Kim, or Castro.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusemany small businesses went bankrupt in Iran already- all trades from Dubai has been halted..the elite in Iran have their money already transferred - this is devastating to average people.
Many of my family members are devastated