It’s time for the United States to tell IMF head Christine Lagarde, to just put a lid on it. Lagarde is among the phalanx of European and financial leaders who have failed so spectacularly to stem the European economic crisis. Now she is now leading the call for Germany to pony up more hundreds of billions of euros to bail out Greece and then other countries, should the dominos begin to fall.
Lagarde’s argument is absurd. Even Angela Merkel — the ever polite, ever firm, if occasionally misguided leader of Germany — knows it and has said so, repeatedly.
The Obama administration should say so, too. The administration has done well so far in avoiding committing additional U.S. taxpayer dollars to prop up Europe’s failed experiment. Europe must solve Europe’s problems. But the United States is also the leading member of the IMF by voting rights. The Obama administration cannot simply take a hands’ off attitude toward what Lagarde says and does. And what she is saying now would, if implemented, fail just as surely as her past efforts. Worse, it would bring down the one remaining, comparatively strong pillar of the European economy.
One can understand the desperation of Lagarde and other Euro elites. Their vision for Europe’s ascendancy and world leadership is collapsing in a loud and embarrassing fashion. Efforts to deal with financial and fiscal crises in the peripheral countries have come to naught but recession. That’s because the Europeans refused to address the underlying issues — a misaligned, poorly designed currency zone combined with debilitating economic policies. At its heart, Europe is dealing with an economic crisis, but it is only treating the financial and fiscal symptoms. This cannot turn out well.
And so the European technocrats resort to calls for ever-bigger “bazookas” or rescue funds. But rescue funds can only buy time, and that helps only if the time bought is put to good use. Instead, the time bought so far has been used to raise taxes and make Europe’s weaklings even weaker. Now, with France’s debt-rating downgrade, only Germany stands capable of contributing much to a rescue fund. But as Merkel points out, Germany’s debt is already at 82 percent of its economy. Just a few more percentage points and Germany’s debt rating will be in question, especially as Germany’s economy contracts under the drag of recession elsewhere.
Europe could have emerged from its trials relatively unscathed, if its leaders had faced facts squarely at the outset. The days of prosperity sufficient to fritter away on heavy regulations, high taxes, excessive spending, and sclerotic labor markets are over. Radical changes in all these areas and in the monetary union are unavoidable if Europe is to rise again. But even radical change, once implemented, takes years to bear real fruit. The seeds of growth take time to grow and mature. Europe no longer has that kind of time.
For her part, Merkel is not entirely blameless for what is about to transpire. Her focus on tight budget rules and austerity typically leading to tax hikes imposed on fiscal miscreants is, under the circumstances, odd given Germany’s heavy debt burden. It is also irrelevant to addressing the real sources of economic weakness and will likely lead to higher taxes, which will just depress economies even more. It’s impossible to bring down a debt-to-GDP ratio when GDP is falling.
European leaders are running out of time, and they know it. They now acknowledge the possibility, even likelihood, (most would say inevitability) of a Greek default, no matter what comes of the present negotiations with bondholders. Portugal cannot be far behind according to the market’s judgment (ten-year bonds are now paying over 18 percent). Painful actions taken two years ago might have altered the course. What Europe now faces in terms of the future of their European project, changes to their social welfare economic system, the demise of the present Euro, and painful recession can only be described as terrible necessities and lost opportunities.
It is understandable Europe’s leaders would do anything to delay these outcomes — understandable, but no less lamentable, as further delay can only make the necessities ultimately more painful. If the IMF’s Lagarde can’t help Europe to see this, then on behalf of the American people who remain deeply concerned about our friends across the pond, the Obama administration should politely but firmly tell Lagarde to put a sock in it.
— J. D. Foster is the the Heritage Foundation’s Norman B. Ture Senior Fellow in the Economics of Fiscal Policy.
Europe has a myriad of problems, bailing them out, and therefore subsidizing their fiscal irresponsibility is a bad decision that will prolong the suffering and increase the eventual pain. But, since subsidizing bad behavior is the way of the Left, I predict we'll be bailing out Europe... again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think that your take is overly rosy and optimistic, gloomy though it appears to be. Europe's crisis is neither economic, nor financial, nor fiscal. It is political and cultural.
It is commonly said that the European crisis is a crisis of capitalism, but really it is a crisis of democracy. Europeans want to retire now (whatever their age) and spend their time and energy vacationing. They have learned to use the power of democratic governments first to take their neighbor's wealth and spend it, then through borrowing to take their children's and grandchildren's wealth and spend that too.
No amount of outside money in a rescue fund will change that; it will only buy time, and even that at the expense of deepening the crisis, since the time bought will not be used to earn and save, but rather to go even deeper into debt.
If Europe can dissolve itself into fragments, then the culturally healthy parts may yet survive and thrive, but as long as they are tied together the weak will drag down the strong not only financially but culturally too. It does not pay to earn and save when your savings are raided to make up someone else's deficits. Productive attitudes would decay quickly, within a generation or so. Restoring them would take much longer.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't we always bail out Europe? Maybe this time we should let them die from their own mistakes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse>>Lagarde is leading the call for Germany to pony up more hundreds of billions of euros to bail out Greece and then other countries
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A French lady calls the shots for Germany to pull the load. It was always the French concept that the European superstate would be "a French jockey on a German horse."
Lagarde is the reason the Eurozone has not collapsed already.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSurely this is the difference between the 'business mind' and the 'political mind'
In private enterprise, you run something small, and if you do well, you get promoted and run something bigger.
In politics, you screw up a middling economy, you get given the chance to screw up a whole continent.
What could possibly go wrong?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat portion of the German debt is due to reunification? The German citizens didn't have a problem with that debt, they were, after all, family. The German citizens that I have spoken with have a big problem with bailing out the rest of Europe. They don't like paying taxes and accumulating debt so that other folks can retire at 50 and live on the beach. Hey, what do you know, US taxpayers (now only 53% of the workforce) feel the same way!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"It’s impossible to bring down a debt-to-GDP ratio when GDP is falling."
This is just nonsense. Keynesian nonsense one expects from the left.
The role of government in the economy can be *cut in half* within *3 years*, from over 40% of GDP to under 20%. Budget deficits of over 20% of GDP can be turned into surpluses of 3% of GDP in the same period. This can be done without causing any depression; it can be done with real GDP falling initially, without it needing to fall by much overall.
The US did it at the end of WW II. And leftist economists have studiously ignored it ever since.
The secret is to *cut spending* and cut it dramatically. Not a few percent here or there. Great swings of the biggest axe you can find. When the government stops *spending* 40% of GDP, the result is more production from real resources moving to more productive uses. Measured GDP can fall in the first year - nobody needs to care. Just get the percent of GDP consumed by government falling dramatically, and free enterprise will take care of the rest.
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