Jacksonville, Fla. — Former governor Jeb Bush has ruled out a brokered candidacy, but he’s keeping a close eye on Tuesday’s GOP primary. As campaign forces kick into gear, he tells National Review Online that northwest Florida, “the Panhandle,” is must-watch region.

John McCain won the Panhandle in 2008, but as Bush notes, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney also managed to win area counties. This cycle, he says, it remains a Republican wildcard.

“I would say that increasingly the Panhandle, from Pensacola to just west of Tallahassee, is becoming more important,” Bush says. “There are a lot of retirees, a lot of military. It’s very conservative, very Republican, and it has pretty high turnout numbers.”

“I’m curious if campaigns are making major ad buys up there,” he says. “This is a media-driven state in many ways, but that is probably where you get your biggest bang for your dollar spent.”