From Fox’s Special Report with Bret Baier Monday, January 30, 2012
On Gingrich’s prospects after Florida:
He is talking about hanging in there. Presumably he is going to lose in Florida, but he says he will remain undaunted and go all the way to Tampa, the convention.
I don’t think it’s a bluff. It’s not just because, as he said, from here on out, most of the races are proportional, so it’s extremely unlikely — unless everybody drops out — that Romney would have an absolute majority [of delegates at the convention].
But there is also a new rule by the Republicans: If you have a plurality of delegates in just five of the states… it could be Guam or Virgin Islands and DC, then you have your name [placed in nomination] in the convention.
That wouldn’t be just a thumb in the eye, presumably if Romney is the nominee, it would be way to vindicate his campaign. And also would keep alive the idea, if there is a fractured [convention] in Tampa, that somehow — if the delegates decided, after they’re released after a ballot, they want a conservative candidate, it could be him. So I think he is in it. I think it’s going to get much more nasty. And I don’t see him dropping out along the way.
On Rick Santorum’s prospects after Florida:
I think [he's] staying in. I think the real sleeper event could be in Missouri. Missouri doesn’t have any delegates. It’s only a beauty contest. But Gingrich isn’t on the ballot. I think for Santorum, this is his great opportunity. He’d be essentially one-on-one with Romney. Of course, Ron Paul will get his share of the vote as he always does.
But it would be a place where he [Santorum] could say, assuming he were to win [Missouri] — he could say, look, if Gingrich is the one that drops out and not me, I’m the one who can unite the non-establishment… grassroots against Romney and win in a general election.
I think this is his one opportunity — particularly because he has tried to take the high road, as we saw in the debate last week where he said: It is OK that Newt worked in Washington and it’s OK if Romney is a rich guy, he earned it. He [Santorum] is the one who is probably the least toxic as the compromise nominee if you’re either in the Romney camp or the Newt camp.
It really doesn't matter if Newt wants to carry on until the convention, he'll be long forgotten by then. Isn't Buddy Roemer still in the race?
After a Florida blowout, Mitt's numbers nationally will be around 40% and Newt will be in the teens. Newt is out of money , has no upcoming debates, and will likely lose the next 8 contests in a row. It's a death sentence for a primary candidate, he'll have no opportunity to regain a foothold.
The big money and endorsements will start gushing to Romney because every sane observer understands Romney is the nominee and they want to start working on unseating Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI love the way the Romney Robots assume that every 'sane observer' will imminently understand that 'Romney is the nominee' (because the GOP Establishment says so?), and will rush to support him.
Tain't gonna happen, McGee. The politics of personal destruction against the more conservative candidates was definitely a bridge too far. Nevada will, I believe, vote (caucus) in just 4 days, and all four candidates will probably get some delegates in this 'Romney state,' although Romney may gain a plurality. Not exactly a blowout.
Ron Paul is on the road toward picking up delegates in Maine, almost as we speak. NRO ignores him, but he is well-organized, appealing to young voters, and pursing a single-minded goal: accumulating delegates.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat I find annoying is how the ardent anti-Romneyists cannot grasp the fact that they're on the margins of this thing, and continue to be on the margins as more time passes. I'm all for reminding the Republican apparatus that they need to hew to conservative principles and not forget who pays the "lunch money" when election season rolls around. But what anti-Romney folk seem to not understand is that Newt is unelectable on a national scale. There is no poll from any source which shows Newt Gingrich winning against Obama. If Newt is the Republican nominee, he'll go down just like McCain. That is a certainty.
Romney, meanwhile, continues to display an edge -- if ever so slight -- over Obama. And this is because Romney appeals to moderates, independents, and Blue Dog Democrats *just enough* to secure their interest such that a percentage of them will go to the polls and pull the lever for Romney in the Fall.
It takes 51% to win, and Newt cannot get 51% no matter how hard he may want it, and no matter how hard anti-Romneyists may want it. Newt will get, at best, perhaps 45% nationally, and that's it. Obama will walk away with it, and we'll have 4 more years of Obama's policies, and conservative will have to re-trench at the legislative level to try and block Obama as much as possible and contain the damage until 2016.
Or, the Republicans can go with Romney and stand a fighting chance of unseating Obama.
I know which path looks best to me.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRE: "Tain't gonna happen, McGee. The politics of personal destruction against the more conservative candidates was definitely a bridge too far."
Yup -- but they don't get it, yet.
They will, though.
A whole lot of caterwauling in November from the Establishment Pravda over here.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe proportionate delegate business is being blown out of proportion. These states are not simply dividing their delegates on a percentage basis to the vote. Just because someone gets 20% of the vote does not mean he gets 20% of the delegates and likewise Romney could get less than 50% in each state and still earn more than 50% of the delegates.
They typically are given on a county by county basis to the winner (from what I have seen) with a few differences depending on the state (like a bonus for winning the state)
If he wins most of the states at the same proportion as Florida, he easily gets 50% of the delegates, even if he never breaks 50% in any one state. (And of course he will do that too in some of the Northeast states).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou make some valid points. But, I added it up a while ago, and there's roughly 1100 delegates at stake in the proportional distribution states, which is (I believe) half of all the delegates available. If Romney, or anyone, wants to put this away, they're probably going to have to secure more than 45% of those proportional delegates - assuming of course Gingrich and Santorum both stay in. Is that possible? I really don't know, particularly if you look at the number of Southern states voting on Super Tuesday.
Then, once we get into the winner-take-all states (another roughly 1100 delegates), there are some big ones out there that Romney is going to have great difficulty (read: impossible) picking up; states like TX and PA.
Unless someone drops out and endorses Romney - like Santorum - his chances of securing the requisite number (somewhere between 1125 to 1170 delegates) of delegates before the convention starts are uncertain. To that degree, proportional distribution might make for a lively convention and that's probably just the way Obama wants it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI find amusing the entire notion that the Florida vote will be somehow definitive. It's the same thing we've been hearing every week from the chattering class and various politicos.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn fact, Florida is the fourth state contest of the season, leaving 46 to go (not counting territories, or if you're Obama, the other 53 states). While it is winner-take-all, the winner will only take 50 delegates, which is a tad shy of the 1,144 needed to win nomination. There's also a chance the winner may not end up with 50. A provision in the RNC rules allows any FL primary voter to file a complaint with the committee on contests seeking proportional representation. Complaints can be filed as late as 30 days before the convention. If such a complaint was to succeed -- and FL is clearly in violation of RNC rules -- tonight's winner could end up with 25 or 30 delegates, not 50.
After Florida there will be a month's worth of caucuses and primaries and they will not be definitive, either. Most of them are small states and some of them are places where Romney will obviously prevail, because they are in his wheel house. After that, though, more southern states will be in the mix and the race could very well take a different turn. Some of us are old enough to remember Reagan being written off after he lost New Hampshire and a string of other primaries to Ford in 1976. Then Reagan won North Carolina, and before it was all over Ford was having to pull every lever of the office he had inherited to fend Reagan off at the convention by a few dozen delegates.
That was a long time ago, but there are parallels; the biggest being that a large part of the base did not accept Ford, just as it rejects Romney now. At the moment, Santorum has won one primary, Romney has won one primary and Gingrich has won one primary. If Romney wins in Florida tonight, he will be 2-2. No matter how much hot air may be generated if Romney wins tonight, the fight for the nomination will remain very much unsettled, and is likely to remain so well into the summer if not going into the convention.
I wonder if George Allen had been more forward looking he might have been in a better place now than either Gingrich or Santorum. He was a governor and is conservative and only lost his senate race by a few thousand votes. If he had convinced people that 'macaca' was a euphemism for 'idiot' in his family, and might still have done, he'd have not only survived the onslaught by the Washington Post but could also now be viable for the Republican nomination.
The conventional wisdom is that if someone loses a race they are toast. Many still consider Santorum toast, but at least he had the courage to run and defend himself in a bad year while Romney did not. Which one should be the more viable candidate?
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