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Mitt’s Comeback

Last night’s win by Mitt Romney in the Florida GOP primary was sweeping and impressive. He won every age group, every region of the state (his biggest margins were in Miami-Dade, northeast Florida, and Tampa Bay), men as well as women, Latinos by a huge margin, Catholic voters (by 26 points over two Roman Catholic candidates), moderates, self-identified conservatives, and Tea Party voters. He did so in an electorate that was more female (49 percent), more conservative (68 percent), more pro-life (58 percent), and more evangelical (40 percent) than the Florida electorate four years ago. 

This was the first closed primary of 2012, which could have been difficult terrain for a candidate whose conservative bona fides are under fire. But Romney’s 14-point victory — -without the endorsement of Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio — far exceeded McCain’s five-point margin four years ago after receiving the critical endorsement of then-governor Charlie Crist, who was the most popular politician in the state at the time.

How did Mitt do it? First, a superior team, organization, and financial resources. Money matters in politics, especially in a large state geographically with multiple media markets stretching across two time zones. Here Romney’s financial advantage took hold. He outspent Newt Gingrich by $17 million to $4 million, and that was just on television. His campaign also had a highly sophisticated program to identify and persuade absentee-ballot and early voters, who represented 40 percent of the vote. His lead is estimated to have been over 75,000 votes before the polls even opened on Tuesday.

Second, much better debate performances. Gingrich dominated the two debates leading up to South Carolina while Romney seemed defensive and off message, and the debates played a major role in Gingrich’s victory. Romney retooled, became more aggressive and less snippy, and seemed to enjoy the combat. Voters want someone who can go toe-to-toe with Obama in the fall. In this sense, the debates have had an exaggerated role in 2012 because the candidates are in effect auditioning for the right to stand on a stage with Obama and more than hold their own.

Finally, Florida played out well for Romney because of the severe mortgage crisis and sluggish tourist industry, which played to Mitt’s sweet spot on the economy and jobs. By releasing his tax returns, he was able to get past the issue of his personal finances (at least for now, though that issue will return) and focus like a laser on the economy.

Among evangelicals, Romney held his own. They were a record 40 percent of the vote, and he essentially split them with Gingrich (36 percent to Newt’s 38 percent). To win, Gingrich needed a number closer to the 44 percent of the evangelical vote he won in South Carolina. Romney’s appeal to social conservatives seems to be improving. In Iowa, he won only 14 percent; in South Carolina, he won 22 percent; and last night, he won 36 percent in Florida. The jostling over Tea Party and social-conservative voters is one of the more interesting subplots of the campaign. 

There are warning signs amid the good news for the Romney campaign. Strong Tea Party supporters and self-identified “very conservative” voters continue to support other candidates. They are clearly not yet sold on Romney. As with McCain in 2008, this suggests a lagging intensity among the grassroots when the GOP nominee will need every player on the field against the Obama machine and money. Romney has some work to do.

This race has been a series of surprises, from Santorum’s amazing win in Iowa to Newt’s Lazarus-like victory in South Carolina. Last night was no exception. This race is not over. There are caucus states to come that favor more conservative candidates such as Santorum or Gingrich, and Super Tuesday shifts the terrain to the South, where there are even more conservatives and evangelicals, two groups with which Romney has struggled. But last night was a big win and an impressive comeback for Romney.

— Ralph Reed is chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   7

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Jonathan Swift
   02/01/12 12:32

"Strong Tea Party supporters and self-identified “very conservative” voters continue to support other candidates. They are clearly not yet sold on Romney."

In part, because they probably fear being sold out by Romney.

And rightfully so. Trust is earned, not given by default via dint of a 5:1 ad buy.

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   02/01/12 12:33

"How did Mitt do it?'

When one has millions to spend, the media, the Dems, the left, and the GOP establishment rooting for one, smearing one's opponent(s) and acting as if winning one small state is a sign of 'inevitability', the question becomes 'How could McCai---oh, I mean Mitt--not win?'

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John Q.
   02/01/12 13:08

Ralph Reed would know all about conning people into giving you money for a political campaign.

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   02/01/12 13:28

Without Rubio's endorsement? Yeah, right. This election cycle has now brought us the "non-endorsement" endorsement along with the "What me conceed?" non-concession speech.

Romney won decisively among Republican voters who showed up to vote in a primary. To extrapolate onto the greater Florida electorate who'll show up in November is silly.

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Hornbook
   02/01/12 13:55

Why the Catholic gap? I'd be interested in seeing what more seasoned analysts have to say, but from an armchair viewpoint I wonder whether there is any identification with the issue of religious freedom. Catholics have been and remain under attack by this Administration, and the issue was met head on in every homily across the nation this past weekend. Mormons have been attacked, criticized, and sneered at for, well, forever. Perhaps Catholic voters see Romney as one who will champion religious freedom.

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   02/01/12 14:10

Finally a thorough and objective review of the Florida Primary on the Corner.

Well said. Very interesting.

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   02/02/12 12:04

I am offended that those who oppose Romney are the "base" and the "grass roots" they are anything but!

I AM THE BASE!!!

I AM THE GRASS ROOTS!!!

Stop insulting my intelligence by calling the fringe nuts the base of this party!!!!

They are fringe and as out of touch with reality and common sense as the fringe of the left.

I wish they would just get their own party and leave us alone so we can stop pandering to nutters.

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