Terrified of the secular/modern/liberal demonstrators who made their presence known in Tahrir Square, as well as of the soccer hooligans, Mohamed Tantawi and Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces have forged a mutually beneficial relationship with the country’s Islamists, thereby blocking their joint opponents from power. Very clever — but maybe too clever by half. Here’s why:
In Egypt, which imports more than half its caloric intake, wages must keep up with the price of food or people begin to starve. Yet the country appears to be heading for a monumental financial collapse in 2012, and perhaps by the summer. If Islamists strut about as though they rule Egypt, the population will blame them and their SCAF allies – not the Tahriris – for its hunger. The anger could quickly turn ferocious. After waiting 84 years to attain legitimacy and power, the Muslim Brotherhood may find it got suckered into taking over the ship’s help just as it heads into an iceberg.
Comments:
1. A joke circulating during Hosni Mubarak’s reign (“Why hasn’t Mubarak appointed a vice president?” “Because he can’t find anyone dumber than he is”) appears to be wrong. Tantawi is even more incompetent than Mubarak.
2. Military dictatorship, which has been firmly in control of Egypt since 1952, has so badly run the country into the ground that its rule finally appears to be in jeopardy.
Democracy is not a panacea. It is an entirely foreign concept in the Arab world.
In order for democracy to have even a chance of success, several other conditions must exist. There must be an independent judiciary not subject to sovereign whim. There must be a rule of law and the security of property rights and the right to private contracts, all enforceable by the judiciary. Without at least these institutional safeguards permanently established, democracy amounts to little more than it does in Iran or the old Soviet Empire, where you are free to vote for the regime and sometimes even choose among its approved candidates.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNote to Obama administration, Pelosi, etc.:
What Estragon says above applies to the US as well, in case you missed that day in high school Civics class.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI would think the IB/Islamists would blame the west for the lack of food- they ain't leavin', you know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse" . . . got suckered into taking over the ship’s help just as it heads into an iceberg."
Would that be "the ship's helm"?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNice thought, but introspection and willingness to blame oneself are not hallmarks of Arab culture.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"It's Bush's fault!!!!"
BTW - "tastes good" as the CAPTCHA for an post about the potential of imminent famine .....
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