Get FREE NRO Newsletters

 

June 11 Issue  |  Subscribe  |  Renew

Close

New on NRO . . .

The Corner

The one and only.

Print   |  Text
 

Rocks, Hard Places

Greece has reached the latest of many last ditches this weekend.

The Financial Times reports:

Lucas Papademos, the Greek premier, failed to make party leaders accept harsh terms in return for a second €130bn bail-out, pushing Athens closer to a disorderly default as early as next month. Greek television reported that Mr Papademos has set a deadline of midday on Monday for the three leaders to let him know whether they agree in principle with the proposed austerity measures, before he meets them again later in the day.

After five hours of discussions, the three leaders of Greece’s national unity government had not accepted demands by international lenders for immediate deep spending cuts and labour market reforms as part of a new medium-term package.

Mr Papademos said the political leaders had agreed on some “basic issues”, including making spending cuts this year of 1.5 percentage points of gross domestic product, or about €3bn, according to a statement from his office.

George Karatzaferis, the head of the small rightwing Laos (People’s) party said as he left the prime minister’s office, that he expected the talks to continue on Monday. There was no immediate announcement by Mr Papademos.

It was clear however that the talks had reached a dangerous deadlock. “They’re asking for more recession than the country can take,” said Antonis Samaras, leader of the centre-right New Democracy party as he left the meeting.

The overspending, corruption and dysfunction of the Greek state are hard to deny.  But so, almost certainly, too is the truth of what Samaras had to say.

Meanwhile Reuters reports on the views of German voters infuriated by the cost of bailing out a country in which they have no trust in order to prop up a currency which they never wanted.

And no, they are not happy:

The majority of Germans feel the euro currency bloc would be better off if debt-crippled Greece left it, a poll published in mass-selling newspaper Bild am Sonntag showed on Sunday.

The Emnid poll said 53 percent of Germans surveyed thought Greece should return to its former currency, the drachma, while only 34 percent felt it should keep the euro…The Emnid poll said 80 percent of Germans surveyed opposes releasing the rescue package unless Greece implements the reforms.

Yet (understandable) fear of what might happen to Germany if chunks start to fall off the Eurozone still keeps its voters in line. The Spectator’s Andrew Gimson recently visited some bars in Stuttgart (tough assignment) and reported on what he found:

I have to admit that while the Germans are deeply perturbed by the euro’s difficulties, they are not in a state of pre-revolutionary fury. Their mentality is that of the crew of a ship who watch with growing concern as they find themselves steered into perilous waters. It does not occur to them to seize control of the ship and try to turn it round: that would only make matters worse. Instead they feel it is more important than ever for everyone to do his duty and co-operate. They see the waves beating on the rocks, and hope that somehow Captain Merkel will be able to find a way through.

Good luck with that. 

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   9

EXPAND  

   02/05/12 19:57

Greeks are so good at dodging taxes they can hide swimming pools- now they've even worn out the "cry wolf" syndrome, why get excited?

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/05/12 20:00

I guess they have run out of spending other peoples' money.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/05/12 22:35

The Greeks are done. They'll get tossed out of the Euro and they'll resurrect the Drachma, inflate the hell out of it and be off and running. OK, off and stumbling.

Now then, the real question is who will be next? Italy or Spain or Portugal? Gonna be a long hot summer. I can't wait to see what the Obama Administration and the Fed will do.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/05/12 22:56

My prediction: Greece takes a deal in February, gets the money in March, and reneges on the deal in April after elections.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/05/12 23:25

In the near-term, I think there are really only two questions about Greece as it (the looming financial collapse of Greece and perhaps the Euro) relates to the US: First, will the catastrophe happen before or after the US elections. And second, if it does happen before, will Obama be able to dodge the economic iceberg (and there will surely be an economic iceberg) because of the, "Hey, it's not my fault Greece defaulted" card?

Purely as an incidental matter, I'm curious if it's possible for Greece to help itself by selling off national property. Lesbos would be a popular get for Ellen and Rosie, right? And, even if it were possible, would there be any buyers considering Greece's history of nationalization in the last century? Would groups of people actually be willing to buy parts of Greece if they thought there was a any chance that it would be re-appropriated at some later time by a more nationalist Greek government?

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/06/12 09:03

They'll either blame it on Bush, or the Jews. If not both.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/06/12 00:30

Greece has the right to print euros. They have a legitimate printing plant in Athens. Why not just print more?

The last ditch will be when the greeks just start printing euros and pay their debts with them. You say they can't do that? Who could stop them? And how could anybody tell the difference when the Greek treasury puts commingles all those euros in them which euro is valid and which euro is not.

This has the advantage of printing drachmas without the one glaring problem, that the debts would still be owed in a different currency (euros) and thus not inflated away.

I'm reasonably certain that a good chunk of EU countries would be more than happy to stick with such a euro, ie all the hopelessly in debt ones.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   02/06/12 08:02

The best way forward, in my estimation, is for Germany, the Netherlands, and a few more relatively strong countries, fiscally and economically, to leave the Euro for one or more new currencies (or revived old currencies). That exit would allow the weak countries to devalue both the Euro and also their debt along with it, to a point commensurate with their level of productivity and their level of fiscal discipline. This would be the most orderly and probably the least painful path out of the current unsustainable situation.

Kissinger was among the first to note that solution prominently a few years ago. It was considered not feasible pragmatically by most people. But recently there has been some talk in non-fringe circles in Germany and the Netherlands that could grow into a viable movement.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
MarkJ
   02/06/12 10:37

Greece, 1944: "Drive out the German occupiers!"
Greece, 2012: "Germans, please come back. All is forgiven."

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse

Add a Comment

Already Registered? Log In Here.


The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.


* Designates a required field.
© National Review Online 2012
All Rights Reserved.
Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital

Gift Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital
NR Apps
iPhone/iPad
Android

NRO Apps
iPhone
Support Us
Donate
Media Kit
Contact