Looks like tonight could be a good night for Rick Santorum. In addition to leading in Minnesota, as Maggie noted, he’s also ahead in Missouri and in second place in Colorado, according to Democratic firm Public Policy Polling’s numbers released today:
Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He’s at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. …. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.
Santorum’s personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race. In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He’s far better liked than his main opponents- Romney’s favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich’s is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum’s been largely left alone and he’s benefiting from that now.
I know there are no delegates being awarded here, but that kind of win would be huge, especially given the significance of Missouri to Republican contenders in the general. Colorado may also be interesting - Romney's below 40 and the combined Gingrich/Santorum numbers are close to 50%. I think it's clear that the party really isn't rallying around Romney. If he really wants to win people over he's going to have to come up with something better.
Alas, he will still probably win the nomination - the later states (and a number with big delegate counts) will be "winner-take-all" in some fashion. So a series of results that look like Colorado (Romney 35, Santorum and Gingrich around 25 each) leads to a lot of delegates for Romney despite the fact that his support is anemic.
Personally, I don't have any deep rooted issue with Romney, but I want him to look at his numbers and want to improve them by making the sale to Republicans. I don't want him to win by carpet bombing the competition to the point where he can sneak by in a 3 or 4 man race with 35% of the vote. He's taking the wrong lesson - trying to insure that his opponents can't get over 35% instead of trying to find a way to get himself over 50.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy cynical self almost wants the GOP to nominate Santorum. That's because I'm starting to think the economy will bail out Obama against any GOP nominee. So if Santorum gets the nom and loses, at least we won't hear we-lost-because-we-ran-a-RINO complaints for four years.
Though some people will say that Santorum was a RINO because he did too many earmarks or something. Just can't win sometimes.
Anyhoo, even Maggie and K-Lo can't really think that an anti-birth-control crusader would have any chance in the general. (Clinically delusional Quin Hillyer may actually think the guy can win.) Even if the economy improves Romney might have a prayer. But Santorum would get clobbered by the kind of attacks that buried Christine O'Donnell with only a small stain to mark the spot.
Still, at least the GOP would have gotten it out of its system.
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