Mitt Romney’s campaign will have lots of explanations for their man’s poor showing tonight. Yes, Colorado and Minnesota were caucus states — the turnout is skewed in such contests toward a more conservative electorate. Yes, Missouri’s primary was a “beauty contest” and didn’t award any delegates.
But what Romney won’t be able to explain away is just how much more poorly he did tonight in those three states than in his 2008 showing — when he lost the GOP nomination for president.
In 2008, Romney crushed John McCain in the Minnesota caucuses by nearly two to one. Tonight, he was sent into a humiliating third-place finish, trailing both Rick Santroum and Ron Paul. In Missouri, Romney held John McCain and Mike Huckabee to something close to a three-way tie, winning 29 percent of the vote. This year, with fewer opponents, he won only 25 percent. In Colorado, Romney outperformed John McCain by three to one in 2008. This year, albeit with only early returns in, he is trailing Santorum. Results from Denver caucus sites will likely boost Romney’s overall showing, but it’s tough to see him winning the state with Santorum performing as well as he is in Colorado Springs and the rural areas.
Santorum is now well primed to raise more money, recruit more volunteers, and better compete in Arizona’s primary at the end of February.
If Romney indeed loses all three states tonight, it will be in large part because he has failed to close the deal with conservatives, who dominate the Republican party more than they did in 2008. Romney drew the ire of conservative icons Steve Forbes and Dick Armey this week when he endorsed inflation-indexed minimum-wage increases — something every free-market economist worth his chops knows would make it harder for people to get entry-level jobs. Forbes told Yahoo News that “in the name of showing his compassion, he hurts the opportunities for those who need it the most.” Romney has also been quite muted in his opposition this week to President Obama’s proposed rule mandating that religiously affiliated hospitals provide birth control and morning-after-pill coverage.
Mitt Romney doesn’t seem to realize he is campaigning for two jobs, not one. He is doing quite well in the race to become the Republican nominee for president, and must still be considered the strong favorite. But ever since Barry Goldwater captured the GOP nomination in 1964, the Republican nominee has been more or less the titular head of the conservative movement, the most important single component of the Republican party. It is that race that Romney is doing so poorly in, as evidenced by the willingness of many conservatives to vote against him.
Romney would help himself and his party if he realized that he will have a much higher chance of winning the general election if he reaches out to conservatives and convinces them to be enthusiastic. It’s one thing to win the vote of every anti-Obama voter in the country, but on his current trajectory Romney will fail to convince many of them to make that extra effort to get their friends and neighbors to the polls. That could ultimately mean the difference between victory and defeat — and for now Romney seems oblivious to that fact.
"In Missouri, McCain held John McCain and Mike Huckabee to something close to a three-way tie, winning 29 percent of the vote."
I believe you meant Romney instead of "McCain" but you can be forgiven considering the resemblance.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Romney would help himself and his party if he realized that he will have a much higher chance of winning the general election if he reaches out to conservatives and convinces them to be enthusiastic."
I suggest that asking an honest liberal candidate such as Romney to live a pretense for the purpose of sheer political gain would not be fair, either to the candidate himself or to the target of the proposed con, the American voter.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is no objective analysis that concludes Romney is a liberal. There is very little policy differences between Santorum, Newt or Romney. That is why the race as devolved into a character assignation contest.
Just because Newt runs around and calls Romney the MA moderate doesn't mean his is.
Fund is correct that Romney has not reached out to conservatives to defend his conservative positions. I believe his campaign is in some sort of bubble and has been focused on the general election. They probably wrongly think the 'moderate' label is an advantage in the general.
Romney's record as governor is really quite impressive given that he had to deal with a 85% Dem legislature. Why would a liberal veto 800 bills from the Dem legislature?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHello? What do you think Romney Care is if not a signature liberal achievement.
I am beginning to warm to the idea of a Santorum/Paul ticket.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWow! I never thought of that, but you are right! That *IS* the ultimate ticket.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy rules:
1.) I don't like to say I told you so.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse2.) I don't like people who say, "I don't like to say I told you so."
3.) I am suspending Rules 1&2 for an undisclosed amount of time.
Can we stop pretending that social "conservatives" are actually conservative in any way, shape, or form?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFirst National Romney Online tried to tell us Mitt Romney is a conservative.
Then National Romney Online tried to tell us what Mitt Romney ought to say to "sound" conservative.
Now National Romney Online is telling us conservatives don't want to have anything to do with Mitt Romney.
Good to see you all are sobering up.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSantorum wins and you write about Mitt?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo, I wonder where Old Fan and the other Mittbots are now?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGetting their list of scatological adjectives and talking points to smear Mr Santorum for the edification of the hoi polloi. Very predictable, very sad.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe MittBot Weekly Talking Points meeting ran a little over this week while Mittens obsessively sweeps the floor.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe're still here, just waiting for the actual delegates to vote. Santorum will never be the candidate and if the conservatives think he can actually win against Obama then they are in for a rude awakening. These states were making a vote on social issues and it won't hold in Nov. That election will not be won on abortion and religion. So you anti-Romney voters just keep staying home or just keeping voting for the anti-Romney candidate and you will give Obama 4 more years to totally destroy this country. Is it so important to you what happens in our private lives when we will not have jobs or homes? How sad.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe point of this article is that Romney is failing to win support of the conservatives in the Republican Party, which makes up about 2/3 of the party. He is relying on a divide the conservatives strategy, laced with heavy doses of attack ads from his deep pockets. It seems he is snubbing 2/3 of his party and trying to game his way to the nomination.
The problem with that strategy is that after the economic collapse in 2008, conservatives are not as willing to go along with yet another RINO as their nominee.
Last night it showed up in support for Santorum. Before that it was Gingrich...and whole list of other prior to that...Bachmann, Cain, etc.
The problem for Romney his strategy for winning nomination is going to cost him dearly in the general election. Conservatives are not going to carry his water, and many will not show up and vote in this election, and that puts him in peril of winning the Presidency.
And yes, hysterical pleas to conservatives to support Dole, McCain, and now Romney will fall on very deaf ears. He may be a better candidate on paper than the 2 previous losers...but he is running at a much worse time to try to win support from the 2/3 majority he has gone out of his way to win over with platitudes. Mitt is not a conservative...and conservatives are going to be more willing to take their poison straight up from Obama, than suffer the indignity of supporting yet another RINO who disdains them so much he will not make genuine commitments to them on the campaign trail. This time it is different. This time 2008 scared the hell out of all conservatives, and we are not about to support a candidate that does not comprehend that 2010 was a very real election, and we were not satisfied.
So, continue to divide, attack and conquer that nomination Mitt.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd good luck in the General...cause you are on your own.
Didn't vote last election for the 1st time in my lifetime, couldn't stomach voting for the weasel mccain. Hope I can stomach pulling the lever for one of the repubs this time around.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMight as well have the real thing (Obama Live!) as Obama Light (Romney)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIowa- blue state in play... Santorum wins
Minnesota-blue state in play... Santorum wins
Colorado-blue state in play... Santorum wins
Santorum 5-1 in blue state Pennsylvania. he has a history of electoral success in a blue tinted swing state.
Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Allen...
All similar to Rick Santorum, all successful candidates in swing states.
We have a war going on in the country between Wall St., Washington and Main St. Main St. starts in western Pennsylvania and stretches to Minnesota. they call it the rust belt. Obama carried every state in 2008 except Missouri (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota). We held Missouri then only because of the evangelical conservatives.
Realistically who has the chance of swaying those blue collar, out of work, conservative minded Democrats? Harvard educated, son of a Governor, Wall St CEO Mitt Romney or coal miner's grandson, blue collar rust belt Congressman/Senator Rick Santorum?
Forget what you think you know about so called Independent voters, they don't exist!!
The only chance republicans have in the rust belt is Rick Santorum.
Try a different argument, electability belongs to Santorum!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"That election will not be won on abortion and religion. "
So you admit that Mitt is pro-abortion, not pro-life. What other revelations about your man do you have?
I would rather have a candidate who wants to abort tax increases and save babies than abort babies and save tax increases.
Rick Santorum is on the Right side of the issues. We already have a guy in the White House who is on Mitt Romney's side.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe're still here. Current delegate totals (via CNN): Romney 106, Santorum 22. Santorum had a great night - and congratulations to him - but that does not make him the front-runner. Romney still has five time the delegates as Santorum. This is going to be a longer and harder-won primary than previously thought, but Romney is still far out in front.
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