Last night demonstrated an annoying fact about the Republican-primary process: It’s complicated. Although Rick Santorum won two caucus votes and one statewide primary, he didn’t gain a single committed delegate to the national convention.
Two months ago, I imagined a scenario in which no candidate won enough delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention. Although I still think such an outcome is highly unlikely, it’s a fun thought experiment to rerun after these first few contests. I had pictured Santorum dropping out after Iowa (yeah, I know), and Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich duking it out, while Ron Paul stole delegates here and there.
Now, the fight may be between Romney and Santorum, with Gingrich and Paul both swiping enough delegates to prevent either of the first two from claiming victory.
Here’s one more quirk that could cause problems: Much has been made about the winner-take-all states that are expected to put Romney over the top. But according to the Republican National Committee’s guide to state-primary rules, late states such as New York (95 delegates), Ohio (66 delegates), and Oklahoma (43 delegates) are winner-take-all only if one candidate receives over 50 percent of the statewide (or, in some cases, the congressional-district-wide) vote. In other words, if Santorum or Gingrich can keep Romney from topping 50 percent, they can steal some delegates for themselves.
In other words, if Santorum or Gingrich can keep Romney from topping 50 percent, they can steal some delegates for themselves.
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You're talking about Ohio..OKLAHOMA..and you write that?
Talk about looking at an election through Romney-colored glasses.
Last night tells me Mitt may have a hard time keeping Rick from 50% in those states, especially if Newt officially drops by then.
"steal some delegates for themselves" - how funny.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOhio and Oklahoma aren't late states. They're Super Tuesday states. They're also not, as Steve notes, easy Romney states. Before Tuesday's contests, Ohio looked likely to be Mitt's, but it's sorta home turf for Santorum, so he faces difficulty there now. Oklahoma was one of three states Newt thought he could win during his "I'll win the nomination by campaigning only in the South" strategic phase (he may still be in this phase; he's campaigning in Georgia right now).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat said, if you look through the pile you'll find many states for which your point is sensible and useful to those who don't know it, such as California.
Why do you assume that it would be Santorum and Gingrich "stealing some delegates"? After Tuesday evening, perhaps Romney might be "stealing some delegates."
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