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The Politics of Conscience

I was on MSNBC a short while ago with a Democratic strategist who insisted that her party held the upper hand in the debate over the Obama administration’s attempt to force religious groups to offer contraception, sterilization, and abortifacients to their employees. (She didn’t describe the policy quite that way, of course.) Several arguments have been advanced for this view: Contraception is widely practiced and uncontroversial with the public at large; polls show that most people and even a majority of Catholics approve of the new rule; Republicans will come across as trying to curb women’s access to contraception if they fight the rule; and the administration can easily find a compromise that Republicans would look (more) extreme in rejecting.

Here’s why I find these points unpersuasive as applied to this dispute. First, that poll isn’t that great for the Democrats. Look closer, and you’ll see that only a three-point plurality of Americans believes that religiously affiliated colleges and hospitals should have to cover contraception (the poll doesn’t mention abortion or sterilization). A small majority of Catholics disagrees. And this is at the beginning of the debate. Rasmussen – using wording that is, admittedly, more favorable for opponents — finds significantly worse results for the Democrats.

But even polling that (hypothetically) showed strong public and Catholic approval for the policy would not put Democrats in the clear, because what matters is how many people might be moved to change their votes based on the issue. I am sure there are plenty of Americans who would vote for Obama in part because he has picked a fight with religious groups over contraceptive mandates — but these people are already voting for Obama. My hunch is that there are, on the other hand, independent voters and even some Democrats who have serious qualms about this policy. And I don’t think Americans are going to be persuaded that there is some crisis of lack of access to contraception. Note that the compromise the Democrats are talking about–not forcing religious groups to provide contraceptive (etc.) coverage, but forcing them to tell employees where they can get subsidized coverage for free–is based on the premise that contraception is easily available.

Two more things tell against the liberal spin on the politics of this issue. First, Republicans are united on it while Democrats are split, with Tim Kaine and Joe Manchin the latest defectors. That’s usually a sign that the united party has taken the winning position. Second, the Democratic talk about compromise is itself evidence of political weakness.

Update: Typo fixed.

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COMMENTS   33

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   02/09/12 11:36

Obama will not back down unless there is a sustained public firestorm, so I encourage everyone to call, call, call your reps and senators of both parties.

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   02/09/12 11:50

Ramesh makes a good point regarding the polls. I would like to add that what I saw of the wording of the polls that Dems say favor them, certainly looked suspect. The wording was very friendly to the mandate and did not frame the debate as I've seen it framed elsewhere. Maybe the wording of Rasmussen is biased, but the polls in Dems favor were biased as well.

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   02/09/12 11:54

All good points, Ramesh. The left knows this is a losing - potentially explosively so - issue for them and that is why they are desperately trying to extricate themselves from the corner they've backed themselves into. For them to pretend otherwise is disingenuous.

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 JPK
   02/09/12 12:49

There's alot of conjecture as to why the President made such an obvious unforced error during an election year. One is hubris. That is, he and his team believe that they have the election already sown up (due to a very weak GOP field). From his internal pollng, the President claculated that he lost about as many from the middle that he could lose. This HHS stunt will solidify his Left base, and more importantly, his deep pocketed Far Left donors. These donors have been begging the President to pick a fight with the Church for some time.

Yet, others believe that this is all part of his long term plan. Once HHS sets the rules there is no going back. Many in the Democratic party believe he will win this fight because so many Catholic women use birth control despite the Church's stance that use of contraception is a Mortal Sin. That is, those Catholics who backed ObamaCare will continue to do so out of pure self interest, and partisan politics. And in the process, this will split the Church even more along partisan lines, which in the long run benefit Progressives. A weakened Catholic Church is a good thing, in thier eyes.

The other and more mainstream view is that the President committed (for whatever reasons) a huge unforced error, which will re-ignite the entire ObamaCare debate during what will be a very contenstious campaign. Instead of splitting the Church, the HHS rules are splitting the Democratic party.If the debate rages into spring and summer, and the President loses even more high level Catholic support, the President could in fact lose the election. The President's political ambitions in this case are best served by quickly and quietly dropping the HHS rules and press on. If he does that, the entire issue will be forgotten within a month. But, as someone asked recently,"When has the President ever backed down over something so big?" If he does back down, he will ignite a firestorm of protest by about every large Progressive group in the nation, and create problems inside of his base that he doesn't have now. In short, he cannot back down. Once he crossed the Rubicon there is no going back.

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MarkJ
   02/09/12 11:56

Memo for the GOP: A rule of thumb in wars is that if your opponent, in this case the Democrats, starts calling for a ceasefire and "negotiations," then you've got them by the short hairs and should immediately press your offensive against them.

I suspect a lot of Donks are muttering under their breath, "How do we get Obama to back down when he's stepped into a steaming pile of dog doo and wants to show his 'resolve' by jumping back into it with both feet?"

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 CTL
   02/09/12 12:02

There is also a way to use this as a method for attacking Obamacare generally. There are lots of people who disagree about the position of the Roman Catholic Church on contraception etc. The biggest problem with Obamacare is that it prevents everyone from trying to reach a health care solution that makes sense for them. In this case, it prevents the Roman Catholic Church from following its morals. It will also prevent lots of other solutions. My family, for example, has specific health care needs (expensive eyeglasses and preventative asthma medicine). With a MSA, we can take care of those known needs while also having a high deductible insurance policy for unanticipated medical expenses. Under Obamacare and its logical extensions through regulation, we will get what some panel of bureaucrats says we get, not what makes sense for us. The same will be true for everyone.

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   02/09/12 12:03

It doesn't matter that a lot of so-called Catholics use artificial birth control. That doesn't change the fact that using it is objectively wrong.

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   02/09/12 16:19

Objectively wrong according to the Catholic Church, not according to everyone.

Here I am, actively defending your right not to have your own beliefs interfered with by the government. I will also stipulate that disputes among members of a religious group are neither my business nor the government's.

Therefore, please do me the courtesy not to claim (or appear to claim) that your moral beliefs are binding upon non-adherents of your religion. That is a step too close to arguing that the government should step in and enact them into law for everyone. And there you would be doing the same thing to me that you don't want done to you. That would be a violation of the Golden Rule, a moral law which I think we both accept.

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   02/09/12 18:09

The teachings of the Church (not to be confused with rituals and ceremonies) are based on natural law and they are binding upon everyone.

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Mattt
   02/09/12 12:04

It is sad Democrats are defending their position on polling and not on principle.

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   02/09/12 12:14

Someone I consider an honest liberal, Eric Zorn of the Chicago Tribune, wrote the other day (in the paper and in his Change of Subject blog) that he believes the government must stay out of "trying to determine the validity of moral claims of faith groups." In other words, he recognizes that whether some Catholics want birth control is irrelevant to the question and certainly not a reason for the government to weigh in on church policy.

He goes on to say that the best solution would be to "Get employers out of the health-insurance business.The current system disguises costs, is unfair to the self-employed who must pay for insurance with after-tax dollars, decreases job-to-job mobility and diminishes the practical and moral options for customers." A further point I like: "Set a baseline of required, basic services covered by every policy, but otherwise let the insured decide if they want to join risk pools that cover one another for contraception or other medications or care that some find objectionable."

I would also point out that under this scenario, the information problem is solved, in that the employers are not made the gatekeepers. The government--as well as any interested organization--could publish lists of insurance companies that do and don't offer various options, including contraceptive coverage. This list could be made available at pharmacies. The beauty of this approach is that it's also offering people who don't approve of contraception (or a number of other things) a chance to avoid paying for such a plan, and if they're really sensitive about it, they could even pick an insurance company that doesn't offer that option at all.

Under this scenario, we see that it comes down to one key question for both liberals and conservatives: Are you comfortable with staying out of other people's choices as long as they are left free to make them?

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   02/09/12 12:23

Non-Catholics, include almost all of the MSM, dont have a good bearing on this issue. It is one thing to say that 98% of all catholic women use some form of contraception as using that stats to buttress your support without taking into account how many respect the churches position but cant live up to it. Being catholic is innately cultural as well as religious for many of us. Talk to a Catholic neighbor or friend who is not practicing and find out how many still believe in being married in the church or by a priest or have their kids baptized and go through first communion. Find out how many have gone through pre-cana.

As Ramesh stated, when one side is divided on the issue and the other split, the split side has a problem. When one side is making the case that is a religious issue and they joined by leaders of other faiths in the debate then you have a real problem shrugging the charges of being anti religion,

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steve sturm
   02/09/12 12:27

You touch on the critical test: will this issue cause enough Obama supporters to shift their votes to lead Obama to rethink his position?

Sadly, I think the answer is no. The people who rank this is issue #1 or so are already likely to vote for the GOP nominee. There are far more Obama supporters who, while they don't like Obama's position, will rank this is as less important to them than whatever other issue(s) it is that had them supporting Obama in the first place.

The same thing holds for other issues on which Obama disappoints some segment of his base: they may tut tut (for example, the NYT on his embracing Super-PACs) but in the end, they'll be there to vote for him.

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Brian Begley
   02/09/12 12:35

I agree that this is not a winning political issue for democrats, as it seems to be angering a lot of people, but I'll admit that I don't see what the big deal is.

Every catholic woman I know has used birth control at some point. There is no requirement that people use birth control in the mandate, only that it be covered.

Given the cost of a birth, and covering another person after the birth, I doubt very much that anyone is saving money by not covering contraceptives.

I know that lots of Catholic universities and hospitals already provide contraceptive coverage.

I just don't get what everyone is so mad about.

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   02/09/12 12:50

This debate also provides a good opportunity to point out that most attempt to use government compulsion to enforce a particular view of sexual morality come from the Left. Conservatives do want to use government to ban abortion, but very little else. There is no movement to ban contraception, but a Democratic President is trying to force even the most ardent opponents of contraception to provide it. It is also the Left that is using "anti-discrimination" laws to force businesses and charities to accept and support gay marriages and lifestyle choices. And it is the Left that wants taxpayers to provide funding for abortions and contraception. Unless people are actually killing babies, conservatives are content to keep government out of such decisions.

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   02/09/12 15:18

Huh, I could have sworn that the right-wing wants government to forbid gay marriage and gay adoption. They also want government to prohibit physician-assisted suicide, to require schools to teach creationism, and to abolish unions.

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Creature
   02/09/12 17:26

Nice try:
-gay "marriage" they want to preserve the traditional definition of marriage and not have acceptance of gay marriage forced on up people who believe it is a sin.
-physician assisted suicide (really? needed this to make your list look longer)
-teach creationism ... in reality they just don't want it sensored. let it be compared to naturalistic darwinism (how close minded and anti-choice of you)
-abolish unions like in right to work states, where workers have choice.

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   02/09/12 17:51

Regrettably, there are some "conservatives" who would recast Cloudbuster's formulation (see above) as of the right of the minority to be catered to in suppressing the liberty of the majority. The most charitable interpretation I can make, based on discussions with some of them, is that they persuade themselves that nobody actually disagrees with them on these matters--hence there will be no interference with anyone else's freedom. This is such an appealing way to eliminate cognitive dissonance, that the illogic of the position (requiring people to do what they all agree with anyway) is considered trivial.

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   02/09/12 19:34

Oh, and you may ask, how can they be both minority and overwhelming majority--doesn't it have to be one or the other? The answer is, in their minds they are both. Minority in order to feel put-upon. Majority because might makes right--or is it right makes might? Anyway, there's no point in trying to determine which is really true. In a society governed by the rule of "mind your own business" there would be no need to try to measure such things.

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Bill Wilde
   02/10/12 08:34

Here's one Conservative who wants a ban on gay marriage as well as abortion, and I don't believe my viewpoint is atypical. Cordially, Bill

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