Still no resolution:
The main Greek party leaders agreed to a last-minute deal Thursday after lengthy negotiations, which was presented to the other 16 eurozone leaders by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos.
But Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and head of the Eurogroup, which brings together euro-area finance ministers, said more assurances were needed from Athens before the bailout could be paid out.
“Despite the important progress achieved over the last days, we did not yet have all necessary elements on the table to take decisions today,” he said.
Three elements must be nailed down, Juncker said. The sweeping reform package agreed to by Greece and the so-called troika, made up of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, must be approved by Parliament this weekend.
Secondly, Greece’s political leaders must pledge that they will continue to implement the measures after elections in April. Finally, Greece must also find a further 325 million euros in “structural expenditure” cuts for 2012, Juncker said.
“These three elements need to be in place before we can take decisions,” he said. “In short, there is no disbursement before implementation.”
We’ll know about (1) within a day or so, (3) ought to be doable and (2) will be next to meaningless, but is something else going on? The Daily Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner thinks so:
There is only one way of interpreting the set of fresh demands tabled by eurozone finance ministers last night in return for agreeing a new €130bn bailout for Greece – that they are now quite deliberately trying to push Greece out of the euro…
If Warner is right the calculation must be that the flood of additional liquidity recently provided to Europe’s banks by the European Central Bank (together with declarations of support for Portugal) will be enough to stop financial contagion spreading from a Greek default.
Warner continues:
[I]t’s easy enough to see why [the eurozone’s leadership] patience has been broken. The Greeks keep promising, but have consistently failed to deliver. Today, their promises are more worthless than ever, as popular support for the political parties which are signing up to them has collapsed.
The way things are going, they’ll all be out at the next election, to be replaced by a ragbag of populist politicians unbound by whatever the present lot have signed up to. Even if eurozone finance ministers manage to get their new conditions agreed, there is not a chance of them being adhered to.
What is more, to push Greece out is of course the right approach for all. There is now no chance whatsoever of Greece making it in the eurozone. Economically and politically, the country is in meltdown.
Nobody in their right mind would invest in Greece right now, knowing that at any moment Greece might leave the euro and that overnight, they will therefore lose half to two thirds of their money.
Richer Greeks have adopted the same view. They are all getting their money out as fast as they can… an entirely rational and logical response to the grossly overvalued currency they find themselves with.
Greece has very little option now but to impose capital controls and leave the euro. The longer it leaves things, the more desperate will its plight become.
That’s a prophecy that can quickly become self-fulfilling.
The optimal outcome for the Greeks is a EuroZone exit. Once out of the EuroZone, investment will flood in, not having to quantify the probability of a EZ exit. Think about it. If you're the CEO of a major firm, would you invest in Spain/Italy, knowing that costs are much higher and that there's a high likelihood your investment will be reverted to a local currency, or Greece, with a cost advantage and medium-term fiscal certainty.
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