Dewy-eyed predictions of democracy within the year proved to be as silly as they appeared to be back then. Instead, a power-hungry military leadership shows it will do whatever necessary to remain in the saddle.
The real action has yet to come. The Syrian regime seems destined to fall and that could have destabilizing repercussions in the Middle East’s most important country, Iran.
Do not confuse Arab regimes with Arab peoples. One of my consistent themes for years has been “if you are pro-Arab, you must be anti-Arab regimes.” Events in Libya and Syria have emphatically made this point.
The Realpolitik regimes in Moscow and Peking will pay a price for their backing police states, and especially the Syrian one. Likewise, the pathetic Turkish foreign-policy slogan of “zero problems” turned out to mean zero problems with police states.
Islamists are pursuing the age-old Middle Eastern habit of splitting just as they attain success: The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis find cooperation difficult in Egypt. Hamas now boasts the Haniyeh and Meshaal factions. When Islamists take over in Damascus, they will break with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ankara and Tehran are often at odds.
My favorite statement summing up the past year’s complexities: The IDF has prepared humanitarian assistance for Syrian refugees in a buffer zone between Syrian- and Israeli-controlled territory. including thousands from the ruling Alawite sect, prompting Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, to muse: “I am not sure all the Alawites will run toward Israel,” but many will do so.
Somehow Dr. Pipes does not even pose the question:
"Is this or that direction of the process in the interests of the USA ?"
Dr. Pipes cites himself:
“if you are pro-Arab, you must be anti-Arab regimes.”
#5 is good news, if they were to split into 3 factions that would be even better, then we could keep them at each others throats with careful armament and diplomacy until the end of time.
A fatal flaw of Strong Man political organization is that there are always people ready to be rival strong men, and it is very difficult to prevent all of them from being clever enough to find a position of leverage.
Saddam Hussein does seem to have been uniquely qualified in that respect. Then again, he even had CNN, Chirac and the head of the UN on his side. Assad gets mainstream reportage on things more than halfway down the strongman atrocity scale from Hussein.
Somehow Dr. Pipes does not even pose the question:
"Is this or that direction of the process in the interests of the USA ?"
Dr. Pipes cites himself:
“if you are pro-Arab, you must be anti-Arab regimes.”
How about being "pro-USA" ?
Respectfully, F.r.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse#5 is good news, if they were to split into 3 factions that would be even better, then we could keep them at each others throats with careful armament and diplomacy until the end of time.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA fatal flaw of Strong Man political organization is that there are always people ready to be rival strong men, and it is very difficult to prevent all of them from being clever enough to find a position of leverage.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSaddam Hussein does seem to have been uniquely qualified in that respect. Then again, he even had CNN, Chirac and the head of the UN on his side. Assad gets mainstream reportage on things more than halfway down the strongman atrocity scale from Hussein.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse