From Democratic firm Public Policy Polling:
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
The Romney campaign, however, is working to tamp down expectations. Senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom said in a MSNBC interview that the campaign did not view Michigan as a “must-win” state, per The Hill.
But Donald Trump is being deployed to give a series of radio interviews touting Romney in the Great Lakes State, reports ABC, while the campaign is sending out e-mails criticizing Santorum for being a Washington insider and his voting record on earmarks and debt ceiling hikes, among other issues. No matter what expectations the campaign is trying to set, the fact remains that top Republicans are discussing how to get a new candidate to enter the race if Romney loses Michigan — something that puts intense pressure on him to pull off a win in the state he grew up in.
Romney can tamp down expectations all he wants - it would still look really bad if he loses or even if he only ekes out a victory. Michigan was a key state for him last time around and I don't see how he dresses it up if he doesn't win big.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo. If Romney loses Michigan by anything, it is terrible for Romney. But if he wins (even if he only "eeks" it out) it is great. It's fantastic, specifically because Santorum looks so strong there.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn your face, Santorum! Mitt's at 33% in the state where his dad was governor. Feel the inevitability! Getting a tingle up my leg!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTrump is "being deployed" by Team Romney? They be getting desperate. Trump could go Foster Friess at any moment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFirst, Romney did well in Michigan last time primarily because John McCain told them the glory days were over and Romney held out hope.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSecond, I was polled today with questions that I thought made sense only if Perry (or someone pushing him) is thinking about recycling himself. If they pushed him out the first time when he was still on pain meds and he is convincing that was his problem (not early dementia), then I can understand them pushing him again. The evangelicals who narrrowly voted to endorse Santorum almost unanamously wanted him - they could be getting nervous about contraception - Perry got himself clipped so no problem there. Daughter suggested that someone may be naming VP early - Newt or Santorum? Newt and Perry slammed Romney's career - Santorum did not. Surely not Romney
"Romney is catching up to Santorum" is a false narrative. The last Rasmussen poll, taken exactly a week ago, had Santorum up 3. The last Detroit News poll, also taken a week ago, had Santorum +4. The previous PPP poll that had Santorum +15 is an extreme outlier, not least of all because it polled registered voters and the latest PPP poll was of likely voters.
Santorum's numbers in Michigan have been holding steady since he jumped into the lead after his big night two weeks ago. I'm sure the Romney campaign would love to push the narrative that Romney is gaining on Santorum in order to regain some momentum, but the polls just don't bear that out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKatrina is trying to create a buzz that Santorum is fading fast so that support will go back to Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree that first MI poll with PPP was an outlier, and this is more in line with reality.
But the REAL question (and not noted by the author) is if the PPP Arizona poll is an outlier.
Because there Mitt is only up by 3 points, and Newt is still polling 16. Given it is a winner-take-all, look for that Newt support to erode some more....
If Mitt loses MI and AZ the same night....what happens?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSince delegate allocation is mostly by congressional district, the distribution of support matters, too. If Romney and Santorum tie in the popular vote like they did in Iowa, does that mean Romney will run up the score in a few districts and Santorum will win most of them (and most of the delegates), or vice versa?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI want Santorum to win so he gets abolutely demolished by Obama. Then all the crazy "conservatism never loses!" crowd can finally shut up. Or maybe they'll just true scotsman him..."no TRUE conservative can lose, therefore Santorum wasn't conservative ENOUGH!".
The guy is a lunatic. Yesterday he said that the gov't wants women getting prenatal care so they'll find out if their kid is disabled and abort the child if he is. Gee, how hard is it going to be to portray this guy as an outside the mainstream theocrat? He said that in the Netherlands 10% of all deaths are euthanasia and 1/2 of those are involuntary. Netherlands says it's about 2%. I want to see all the "social conservatives" when their idiocy leads to a 60/40 blowout.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusecapcha: off the record
Upfront: I don't care for Trump or anything about him.
Have you noticed how Trump endorsed and stumps for the least conservative, by his own prior acts and omissions, candidate, the candidate who "excites" the Republican conservative base the least, i.e. Romney?
Have you noticed how Trump threatens his own third party run when Romney does poorly and then backs off from it when Romney does well?
Have you noticed how Trump spent a lot of time and money on Democrats, but not Republicans, in previous years, claiming now it was only because of bidness?
Is Trump really conservative?
My opinion is that Trump is part of the Obama re-election effort, his assignment being to support the weakest potential nominee, Romney, by promoting Romney as a "true conservative," and if Romney does not get the nomination, to split the Republican vote by going third party by promoting himself as the "true conservative."
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