Three Arab dictators-for-life lost power in 2011: Ben Ali of Tunisia on January 14, Mubarak of Egypt on February 11, and Qaddafi of Libya on October 20. Now, the first Arab dictator of 2012 seems to be down: Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen.
Seems because his demise has been a protracted and contorted process that included Saleh’s resignation on November 23, elections on February 21, and the festive swearing in today of his successor, Abed Rabu Mansour Hadi. Following the “Pipes rule of Arab elections” (namely: If you know the result ahead of time, you are voting for the real powerbroker; if you don’t know the result in advance, then you are voting for a position that hardly matters), that Hadi was the only candidate for president suggests he has real power. By the way, he was the country’s vice president since 1994 and is field marshal of the Yemeni armed forces.
But, as Laura Kasinof of the New York Times puts it, Saleh “still wields considerable influence. His relatives control most of the military and government security agencies, and it remains to be seen how independent Mr. Hadi, a longtime Saleh loyalist, will be.” So, Hadi’s installation might be a gambit for Saleh to retain control. We shall see.
Who’s number five? Bashar al-Assad. After that, it’s unclear who’s number six, but I bet on a newly-wobbly King Abdullah II of Jordan, thanks to his incompetence in dealing with the growing Islamism of his Bedouin political base.
Though I hope for radical improvements in freedom, liberty and government by the people in the ME, I'm afraid reality will prove far different.
As to why, Benjamin Franklin explained it succinctly:
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters."
All societies have corrupt and vicious elements, but in some those traits rise to the top and though always "justified" by (pick one or more) religion, race or culture become dominant traits of the society instead of unwanted anomalies.
Those still capable of viewing the world sans the media's and academia's politically-correct filters, see the stark human reality that some societies as a whole are more corrupt than not and more vicious than not.
Maybe I'm wrong and we are at the beginning of a modern age of enlightenment in the ME... Personally, my hopes are high, but my expectations are very, very low and I expect the much-vaunted "Arab Spring" will end very badly for people there and the world at large.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAl Assad next? Maybe. He's managing the situation differently from the others, cleaving to the traditional methods of putting down rebellion perfected by his father Hafez. Bashar, though, is very much a man of these estrogen-drenched times. He's simply not killing enough people fast enough to keep his head above water.
Reminds one of the adverstising slogan for Pall Mall cigarettes. Today's Arab dictators: "Outstanding - and, they are mild".
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDr. Pipes writes: "Three Arab dictators-for-life lost power in 2011" and discusses the next candidate. Somehow I did not see in his list the king of Saudi Arabia.
May be the king is not "Arab" ? Or may be he is not "for-life" ?
Evidently, Dr. Pipews does not count the king as "dictator".
I do respect Dr. Pipes, no kidding, but where is the logic ?
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