"Romney came back to edge Rick Santorum in his home state that he won handily in 2008. "
2008? Wasn't that the same year that Mitt Romney was endorsed by Rush Limbaugh? Oh, and I think this magazine called National Review endorsed Romney in that same year. In fact, I think this guy named Lowry - maybe Lawrie? - wrote...
Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest.
Anywho. In spite of this Limbaugh character now hosting a 3-hour long anti-Romney telethon virtually every afternoon, and this Lowry guy having a man-crush on someone else (rhymes with Bantorum), Romney still improves his 2008 performance by 72K votes. Funny how that worked out, eh.
Two things jump out at me when looking at the exit polling: Romney did 4-points better with women than he did in 2008, with women making up a greater percentage of the total vote relative to their percentage in 2008. And second, Rick Santorum lost Catholics by 7-points.
How does Rick Santorum, Super Catholic, lose Catholics by 7-points?
Romney "improve[d] upon" his 2008 performance? Really? Generally, when your margin of victory is reduced by roughly 66% and you go from winning 2/3 of a state's delegates to winning half, that's not considered an improvement.
Only to someone who doesn't understand the peculiarities of the proportional allocation system that the state of MI employs.
Romney did what he needed to do; he improved his actual vote count, and he improved his percentage of the total vote, and he did that against the onslaught of the Rick Santorum attack machine, AKA Rush Limbaugh.
Had Gingrich done as well as Huckabee did in 2008 (when he was the #3 candidate), Romney's delegate count would have likely been even better than it was 4-years ago.
We have had 10 primaries/caucuses thus far. Romney leads the actual vote count by more than 771K votes with a total of 1.74M votes. That represents just over 41% of the total votes casts. He leads the total delegate count by 83, with a total of 149 delegates which represents 47% of all delegates awarded (thus far).
Romney has secured more than 40% of the vote in five of the ten contested primaries. His next closest competitor, Santorum, has secured more than 40% of the popular vote just twice. Romney is also the only competitor that has secured more than 46% of the total vote in any primary, and he has done that in four of the ten contested primaries.
Scott, I understand the delagate allocation enough to know Mitt won 20 last time to McCain's 7 and Huck's 3 but now has only 14 to Rick's 12 (with 4 too close to call).
Sorry - you can't spin that as a 'better result' - at best he leaves with 2 less delegates than 2008 and more importantly 7 less in terms of spread with his nearest competition. AT BEST. Heck, Rick might still win the state delegate prize!
I do hear you though about the value of a more competitive 3rd candidate. Mitt really needs Newt to stick around. Too bad Newt is dying and soon it will be a 2-man race.
I don't understand this phenomenon. Why are all these people who publicly supported Romney in 2008, now don't? Particularly, what is so puzzling is that I do not see that Santorum is a better prospect than McCain was. Can someone explain why this is happening?
In 2008, Romney ran to the right of McCain, so many people, like me, who couldn't stand McCain, voted for Romney (who ran to the right of McCain) That doesn't mean Romney was my first choice, quite the contrary, I was sending a message as to my disgust with the GOP selecting McCain as their nominee. Same this year, the GOP selects Romnney, and he runs as another moderate McCain, and I am again disgusted with the GOP. This was an opportunity to take back America, instead we are going to be saddled with the weakest possible candidate against the Chicago-Obama machine. Mitt Romney has to spend 5:1 in his home state to get 3 points on Santorum. We are giving Obama 4 more years.
"How does Rick Santorum, Super Catholic, lose Catholics by 7-points?"
Because the North has the biggest number of liberal cafeteria Catholics. As if you didn't know that already. But heh, he could flop on abortion like your boy Romney, and maybe he'd get them too. And then, like your boy Romney, he could just flop right back. Mittens is so... flexible. Its why he thinks liberals and moderates will vote for him.
When choosing between McCain or Romney in 2008 - Romney was less of a RINO. McCain was a weak apologetic RINO who is good at attacking conservatives.
In 2012, Rick Santorum is a far better candidate than Romney. Rick Santorum can win in November. RomneyCare will not beat Obamacare in November. Romney is McCain-Lite.
Actually Rush only endorsed Romney as a last ditch effort to stop McCain. If you were paying close attention, he was saying that Fred Thompson really close to a true Reaganite.
Scott..my math is rusty. How much did those 72K votes cost, and what is the return on investment given the guy has been running for 5 years and been from Michigan since birth. The guy won by 3% this year, despite winning by 8% in 2008 over the guy he lost to! More votes were cast, so yeah, Mitt got more than 2008. How you can spin that as a better win is laughable.
Did you catch Mitt, for the first time tonight, plug for donations? Yep..the well must be running a little drier after this Michigan debacle. Millions just to avoid embarrassment and split the delegate pie.
But here is what I am waiting for...all those at NRO and in the comments who told us that Rick did not win a single delegate 3 weeks ago reminding us now of the MI delegate totals once they play out. Looks like could be an even split.
All that matters now is next week. Romney will get little to no credit for winning MA and VT (2 states Obama will win by 20-30 points) and all that will be said about VA is that he won it without Rick on the ballot. He will get delegates though - but he will need more to claim the winner of Super Tuesday.
I have heard good things about Idaho for Mitt too, though the words 'lots of Mormons' are always included.
Like Florida was forgotten after that trifecta sweep by Rick, so Michigan will be forgotten next week if Rick wins OH, OK, TN and a couple others...
We are now almost at the point where all that matters is delegates. Momentum still has a part, and will until after Super Tuesday. It is a clear 2-man race, and Mitt better pray that Newt sticks around past Tuesday next week.
Although if the Democrats keep coming out in force for Santorum, his wish just might come true. Maybe Santorum should just switch parties - the Dems seem to like him better.
I suppose it's possible that Romney could come back in one or more of those states, given his enormous financial advantages, but it's doubtful considering he has less than week to do so and there are 10 states in play next Tuesday.
Right now, Super Tuesday is not shaping up very well for Romney.
Interesting spin there, since three or four states are conceded to Romney.
Ohio polls we will have to see after Romney drops his ad bomb.
But even if Romney loses Ohio, it's hard to see Santo getting ahead of Romney in delegates: Santo can win in the Midwest (and presumably the South), Romney in the blue states and the Rocky Mountains. Romney seems likely to end up winning at least twenty-five states, including some notable winner-take-alls.
If Romney wins Ohio, it really is all over, I think, effectively, though I'm sure Santo will stay in.
Santo has to hope Gingrich drops out. No way he has a shot to get ahead of Romney in delegates without that.
There's no spin. The three Super Tuesday states that are widely "conceded" to Romney, as you put it, carry substantially fewer delegates than the three Santorum is on track to win going away.
Romney is expected to carry VA (49 delegates), MA (41), and VT (17), which constitutes a total of 107 delegates.
Santorum is winning by wide margins in OH (66), TN (58), and OK (43), which have a combined total of 167 delegates at stake.
Santorum is also running ahead of Romney and second to Gingrich in Super Tueday's biggest prize, Georgia (76).
Santorum is leading in the bigger and more important Super Tuesday states, Romney is ahead in smaller states that the GOP nominee has no chance of winning in the electoral and in a state in which he's running virtually unopposed.
I'm sure Romney is going to pump a ton of as money into Ohio over the next week, as winning there is the only way he'll be able to emerge from Super Tuesday with a positive narrative, but the demographics there are like Michigan-only-worse for Romney, he does not have a native son advantage, and he has a lot less time than in Michigan to move the numbers.
I fear that Romney will be the nominee and will also lose handily to Obama and after that a core group of the republican party will conclude that they need to run even further to the right in order to win (and thereby become , of course, even more unelectable). Its a sad day, i feel for the party.
Democrats almost gave Santorum the win in Michigan. Romney carried GOPers 48-37 according to the exits, but Dems gave Santorum a whopping 53-18 edge. Operation Chaos almost worked. I expect more of the same in Ohio, with maybe the same kind of Santorum robocalls.
In Arizona, no Operation Chaos and no robocalls produced a rout for Romney.
According to exit pols a whopping 2% more Democrats voted this time than 2008. Considering there was no competitive Democrat primary and considering Mitt still won the liberal/moderate contingent last night, I think the impact of Kos was limited.
"Romney came back to edge Rick Santorum in his home state that he won handily in 2008. "
2008? Wasn't that the same year that Mitt Romney was endorsed by Rush Limbaugh? Oh, and I think this magazine called National Review endorsed Romney in that same year. In fact, I think this guy named Lowry - maybe Lawrie? - wrote...
Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest.
Anywho. In spite of this Limbaugh character now hosting a 3-hour long anti-Romney telethon virtually every afternoon, and this Lowry guy having a man-crush on someone else (rhymes with Bantorum), Romney still improves his 2008 performance by 72K votes. Funny how that worked out, eh.
Two things jump out at me when looking at the exit polling: Romney did 4-points better with women than he did in 2008, with women making up a greater percentage of the total vote relative to their percentage in 2008. And second, Rick Santorum lost Catholics by 7-points.
How does Rick Santorum, Super Catholic, lose Catholics by 7-points?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney "improve[d] upon" his 2008 performance? Really? Generally, when your margin of victory is reduced by roughly 66% and you go from winning 2/3 of a state's delegates to winning half, that's not considered an improvement.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"that's not considered an improvement."
Only to someone who doesn't understand the peculiarities of the proportional allocation system that the state of MI employs.
Romney did what he needed to do; he improved his actual vote count, and he improved his percentage of the total vote, and he did that against the onslaught of the Rick Santorum attack machine, AKA Rush Limbaugh.
Had Gingrich done as well as Huckabee did in 2008 (when he was the #3 candidate), Romney's delegate count would have likely been even better than it was 4-years ago.
We have had 10 primaries/caucuses thus far. Romney leads the actual vote count by more than 771K votes with a total of 1.74M votes. That represents just over 41% of the total votes casts. He leads the total delegate count by 83, with a total of 149 delegates which represents 47% of all delegates awarded (thus far).
Romney has secured more than 40% of the vote in five of the ten contested primaries. His next closest competitor, Santorum, has secured more than 40% of the popular vote just twice. Romney is also the only competitor that has secured more than 46% of the total vote in any primary, and he has done that in four of the ten contested primaries.
Not bad for Mr. 25%.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseScott, I understand the delagate allocation enough to know Mitt won 20 last time to McCain's 7 and Huck's 3 but now has only 14 to Rick's 12 (with 4 too close to call).
Sorry - you can't spin that as a 'better result' - at best he leaves with 2 less delegates than 2008 and more importantly 7 less in terms of spread with his nearest competition. AT BEST. Heck, Rick might still win the state delegate prize!
I do hear you though about the value of a more competitive 3rd candidate. Mitt really needs Newt to stick around. Too bad Newt is dying and soon it will be a 2-man race.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't understand this phenomenon. Why are all these people who publicly supported Romney in 2008, now don't? Particularly, what is so puzzling is that I do not see that Santorum is a better prospect than McCain was. Can someone explain why this is happening?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn 2008, Romney ran to the right of McCain, so many people, like me, who couldn't stand McCain, voted for Romney (who ran to the right of McCain) That doesn't mean Romney was my first choice, quite the contrary, I was sending a message as to my disgust with the GOP selecting McCain as their nominee. Same this year, the GOP selects Romnney, and he runs as another moderate McCain, and I am again disgusted with the GOP. This was an opportunity to take back America, instead we are going to be saddled with the weakest possible candidate against the Chicago-Obama machine. Mitt Romney has to spend 5:1 in his home state to get 3 points on Santorum. We are giving Obama 4 more years.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"How does Rick Santorum, Super Catholic, lose Catholics by 7-points?"
Because the North has the biggest number of liberal cafeteria Catholics. As if you didn't know that already. But heh, he could flop on abortion like your boy Romney, and maybe he'd get them too. And then, like your boy Romney, he could just flop right back. Mittens is so... flexible. Its why he thinks liberals and moderates will vote for him.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen choosing between McCain or Romney in 2008 - Romney was less of a RINO. McCain was a weak apologetic RINO who is good at attacking conservatives.
In 2012, Rick Santorum is a far better candidate than Romney. Rick Santorum can win in November. RomneyCare will not beat Obamacare in November. Romney is McCain-Lite.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually Rush only endorsed Romney as a last ditch effort to stop McCain. If you were paying close attention, he was saying that Fred Thompson really close to a true Reaganite.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseScott..my math is rusty. How much did those 72K votes cost, and what is the return on investment given the guy has been running for 5 years and been from Michigan since birth. The guy won by 3% this year, despite winning by 8% in 2008 over the guy he lost to! More votes were cast, so yeah, Mitt got more than 2008. How you can spin that as a better win is laughable.
Did you catch Mitt, for the first time tonight, plug for donations? Yep..the well must be running a little drier after this Michigan debacle. Millions just to avoid embarrassment and split the delegate pie.
But here is what I am waiting for...all those at NRO and in the comments who told us that Rick did not win a single delegate 3 weeks ago reminding us now of the MI delegate totals once they play out. Looks like could be an even split.
All that matters now is next week. Romney will get little to no credit for winning MA and VT (2 states Obama will win by 20-30 points) and all that will be said about VA is that he won it without Rick on the ballot. He will get delegates though - but he will need more to claim the winner of Super Tuesday.
I have heard good things about Idaho for Mitt too, though the words 'lots of Mormons' are always included.
Like Florida was forgotten after that trifecta sweep by Rick, so Michigan will be forgotten next week if Rick wins OH, OK, TN and a couple others...
We are now almost at the point where all that matters is delegates. Momentum still has a part, and will until after Super Tuesday. It is a clear 2-man race, and Mitt better pray that Newt sticks around past Tuesday next week.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse" if Rick wins OH, OK, TN and a couple others..."
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
Although if the Democrats keep coming out in force for Santorum, his wish just might come true. Maybe Santorum should just switch parties - the Dems seem to like him better.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOhio
Santorum +8.3 (RCP avg) / +11 (most recent)
External Link
Oklahoma
Santorum +20.5 (RCP avg) / +21 (most recent)
External Link
Tennessee
Santorum +16, +16, +18 (3 most recent)
External Link
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I suppose it's possible that Romney could come back in one or more of those states, given his enormous financial advantages, but it's doubtful considering he has less than week to do so and there are 10 states in play next Tuesday.
Right now, Super Tuesday is not shaping up very well for Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseInteresting spin there, since three or four states are conceded to Romney.
Ohio polls we will have to see after Romney drops his ad bomb.
But even if Romney loses Ohio, it's hard to see Santo getting ahead of Romney in delegates: Santo can win in the Midwest (and presumably the South), Romney in the blue states and the Rocky Mountains. Romney seems likely to end up winning at least twenty-five states, including some notable winner-take-alls.
If Romney wins Ohio, it really is all over, I think, effectively, though I'm sure Santo will stay in.
Santo has to hope Gingrich drops out. No way he has a shot to get ahead of Romney in delegates without that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere's no spin. The three Super Tuesday states that are widely "conceded" to Romney, as you put it, carry substantially fewer delegates than the three Santorum is on track to win going away.
Romney is expected to carry VA (49 delegates), MA (41), and VT (17), which constitutes a total of 107 delegates.
Santorum is winning by wide margins in OH (66), TN (58), and OK (43), which have a combined total of 167 delegates at stake.
Santorum is also running ahead of Romney and second to Gingrich in Super Tueday's biggest prize, Georgia (76).
Santorum is leading in the bigger and more important Super Tuesday states, Romney is ahead in smaller states that the GOP nominee has no chance of winning in the electoral and in a state in which he's running virtually unopposed.
I'm sure Romney is going to pump a ton of as money into Ohio over the next week, as winning there is the only way he'll be able to emerge from Super Tuesday with a positive narrative, but the demographics there are like Michigan-only-worse for Romney, he does not have a native son advantage, and he has a lot less time than in Michigan to move the numbers.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYeah, see those polls CE posted. It's not like I picked those 3 states out of the air.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Maybe Santorum should just switch parties - the Dems seem to like him better."
And maybe you'd be happier in the Libertarian Party.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI fear that Romney will be the nominee and will also lose handily to Obama and after that a core group of the republican party will conclude that they need to run even further to the right in order to win (and thereby become , of course, even more unelectable). Its a sad day, i feel for the party.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh please. As if Obama's re-election isn't what you want. You're not fooling anyone, Expat.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDemocrats almost gave Santorum the win in Michigan. Romney carried GOPers 48-37 according to the exits, but Dems gave Santorum a whopping 53-18 edge. Operation Chaos almost worked. I expect more of the same in Ohio, with maybe the same kind of Santorum robocalls.
In Arizona, no Operation Chaos and no robocalls produced a rout for Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAccording to exit pols a whopping 2% more Democrats voted this time than 2008. Considering there was no competitive Democrat primary and considering Mitt still won the liberal/moderate contingent last night, I think the impact of Kos was limited.
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