It seems to be no-really-Republicans-can-beat-Obama day for center-right pundits. William McGurn in the Wall Street Journal and Michael Gerson in the Washington Post make versions of the case. So do I in Bloomberg View.
Start with Obama’s poll numbers, which are mediocre. His job-approval rating has been trending upward since October, but is still below 50 percent. More people disapprove than approve of his performance on health care and on the economy — two issues likely to be critical in the election. A Gallup/USA Today poll recently found that among swing-state voters, Romney is actually beating Obama. (As is Rick Santorum.) Even in state polls that have Obama ahead, his numbers are weak: He’s below 46 percent in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa. And almost 60 percent of Americans believe the country is “on the wrong track,” which typically doesn’t bode well for an incumbent president.