Would Rick Rise If Newt Left?
Nate Silver imagines how Rick Santorum would do if Newt Gingrich dropped out of the race:
Slightly more than half (57 percent) of Mr. Gingrich’s supporters would go to Mr. Santorum. About a quarter (27 percent) would go to Mr. Romney. The remainder (16 percent) would go to Ron Paul.
How would that translate into delegates?
Mr. Romney would still be significantly ahead in the delegate count. I have him with 404 delegates versus 264 for Mr. Santorum and 71 for Mr. Paul.
Despite dissatisfaction with Romney among very conservative voters, the ex-governor is still winning: “Even after receiving his share of Gingrich vote, Mr. Santorum would still have trailed Mr. Romney in the overall popular vote — about 45 percent to 38 percent.” Read more here.