Last week, I wrote about my disappointment with the Ryan plan. This week, I take a look at the ten-year spending projections from the House Republican Budget as compared with the White House budget for 2013. Here is a chart based on Tables S-3 and S-4 of The Path to Prosperity FY2013:
According to the data, at $3.53 trillion in total spending in FY2013, the Ryan plan is 5 percent (or $187 billion) less than the president’s projected spending in that year. The Ryan plan projects a 4 percent annual average growth of spending from 2013 to 2022, while the president’s plan projects it to be 5 percent.
Of the $5 trillion in savings in the Ryan plan’s ten-year spending projections, compared with Obama’s, $352 billion would come from discretionary programs, $2.5 trillion from so-called entitlements, and $514 billion from interest costs. A big chunk of the savings would come from the repeal of the president’s health-care law ($1.6 trillion). As you can see, Social Security ($10.5 trillion) is untouched in the PTP.
Cumulative spending over the next ten years under both the Ryan plan ($40 trillion) and the White House plan ($45 trillion) hardly differ from the Congressional Budget Office’s alternative baseline estimate of $47 trillion — an estimate based on historical spending patterns and more realistic assumptions about laws that are set to expire.
Needless to say, in that context, I am very much looking forward to tomorrow’s release of the Republican Study Committee budget.