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In Battleground States, Obama Has Slight Lead



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A new USA Today/Gallup poll of twelve battleground states finds Barack Obama at 47 percent and Mitt Romney at 45 percent. Perhaps more alarmingly for Team Romney, the poll also found that Obama’s ads are proving more effective at swaying voters right now:

[A]n overwhelming majority of voters remember seeing campaign ads over the past month; most voters in other states say they haven’t. In the battlegrounds, one in 12 say the commercials have changed their minds about President Obama or Republican Mitt Romney — a difference on the margins, but one that could prove crucial in a close race.

At this point, Obama is the clear winner in the ad wars. Among swing-state voters who say the ads have changed their minds about a candidate, rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% now support the president, vs. 16% favoring Romney.

But in a campaign memo issued this morning, Team Romney argued that Obama had spent nearly three times as much as Romney on TV ads.  “Since the week of April 16, the first full week of advertising spending after Mitt Romney became the obvious nominee, the Obama campaign has spent $46.2 million in television advertising to the Romney campaign’s $17.0 million (a ratio of 2.7:1),” wrote the campaign.

The memo went on to argue that a lot of those ads have been negative — and that it hasn’t swayed the national polling numbers:

3.      Over 75% of the advertising the Obama campaign has run has been negative, anti-Romney ads, with at least 14 separate negative ads run against Mitt Romney.

According to New York-based Kantar Media’s CMAG, which monitors campaign advertising, of the 68,443 ads that Obama has run on TV (local broadcast, national network & national cable) in the 30-day period ended July 2, 76% of the total (52,016) had an “anti-Romney message.” (SOURCE: http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-07-06/10-million-checks-131000-ads-this-aint-your-kinkos-campaign/)

 

4.      Yet, despite all of the negative advertising from the Obama campaign, polling numbers are exactly where they were before they started this onslaught.

The April 11 Pollster.com average ballot had Obama at 46.9% and Romney at 44.2%.  The July 5 Pollster.com average ballot is unchanged: Obama at 47.1% and Romney at 44.6%.  (SOURCE: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama)

 

 

 



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