According to Politico’s Jake Sherman, the Ames champion has an uphill fight:
Democrats spent millions in an unsuccessful bid to beat Bachmann in 2010. They had largely written her off this cycle, thinking a stronger Republican district would make her invincible. But the party seems to be focusing on Democrat Jim Graves, a wealthy Minneapolis businessman who is looking to cast himself as the moderate alternative to the unpredictable Bachmann. The slogan of his campaign is “Getting back to business.”
Democratic polling earlier this month had him neck and neck with Bachmann. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee seems to be taking the race seriously. The organization’s top midwestern political hand is headed there in the next few weeks. The National Republican Congressional Committee is split: Some senior officials say they’re watching the race; others say they’re not concerned.
As Sherman notes, Bachmann’s chances have been boosted by redistricting, which “lopped off the eastern suburbs of St. Paul and extended the district further into the opulent western metro,” a Republican hotbed.