The latest batch of Qunnipiac/CBS/New York Times polls of swing states are out:
COLORADO: Romney 50 – Obama 45
VIRGINIA: Obama 49 – Romney 45
WISCONSIN: Obama 51 – Romney 45
In Colorado, the weighted percent of Republicans totaled 32 percent, while 27 percent were Democrats. In 2008, Republicans were 31 percent of Colorado voters and Democrats 30 percent, per exit polls. With Republican enthusiasm higher this time around, it seems probable that Republicans would up their voter advantage from 1 point to 5 points.
In Virginia, there was a 7-point advantage given to Democrats, with Republicans’ weighted percent 23 percent and Democrats 30 percent. Exit polls in Virginia from 2008 show that Democrats had a 6-point advantage, with 39 percent of state voters Democrat and 33 percent Republican. Virginia has been getting bluer, it’s true, but considering the difference in enthusiasm this time around, it seems unlikely that the 6-point advantage would hold, much less that Democrats would gain another point.
In Wisconsin, the weighted percents were 27 percent Republican and 34 percent Democrat. Democrats in 2008 had a 6-point advantage, with 39 percent of state voters being Democrats and 33 percent Republicans, according to exit polls. Of course, 2008 was before Scott Walker and all the other GOP victories that have happened since — although it’s not clear that the Wisconsin willingness to have Republicans govern at the state level will change their leanings on the presidential contest.