President Obama has recently argued that if he wins reelection, Republicans will start cooperating with his agenda. At Bloomberg View, I argue that he’s deluding himself if he believes this.
If Obama wins re-election, the Republican Party will react by moving right, not left. It will become less likely to compromise with Obama, not more.
If Obama wins, he will almost certainly win with a smaller majority of the vote than he got in 2008, in defiance of the usual trend: Incumbents who win re-election usually do better the second time around. Republicans will almost certainly add to their ranks in the Senate, and may take a majority. No way would they see this set of election results as a “decisive” statement of support for Obama’s views.