Poll: Shift in Florida’s Jewish Vote?

by Nathaniel Botwinick

The American Jewish Committee released a new poll of Jewish voters in Florida that possibly holds good news for Mitt Romney. According to the AJC, 69 percent of Florida’s Jewish voters say they will vote for Barack Obama, 25 percent will vote for Mitt Romney, and 5 percent remain undecided — yes, this is good news.

In Florida, Jews account for 8 percent of likely voters, and are a key swing constituency. In 2008, Obama won 76 percent of the Jewish vote and took the state. Based on some quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations, if the 2008 election were repeated with this change in the Jewish vote, Barack Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain would be halved from over 200,000 votes to around 100,000 votes. Florida is perennially a close election; that kind of shift in the Jewish vote could help deliver the state to Mitt Romney.