Lately, Ohio polling has been especially bad for Mitt Romney. CBS has just moved Ohio to “lean Democrat.” Real Clear Politics shows President Obama ahead by an average of five points in the state, and a poll today gave Obama a double-digit lead over Romney there.
And then there is the fact, as pundits repeat ad nauseam, that no Republican has lost Ohio and gone on to win the presidency.
But perhaps 2012 will be the first year that changes. It is, after all, possible for Romney to reach 270 without winning Ohio. To do that, he would have to win all of the states RCP is currently classifying as toss-ups: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13). That’s not an easy task — and he’s not doing great in the polling in many of those states, either — but it’s possible. He would reach 273 with those states, assuming he also won all those considered leaning and solid GOP. Another option would be that Romney could lose one or two of those states, but pull off a surprise win in Wisconsin (10), which RCP considers “lean Democrat.”