In a new National Journal poll, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 47 percent . . . despite the fact that the poll’s demographics resemble 2008′s:
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
In a NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, Obama is at 49 percent among likely voters and Romney at 46 percent.
Romney continues to struggle in Ohio, lagging eight points behind Obama in the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll. He is at 43 percent to Obama’s 51 percent among likely voters. Partisan breakdown is 36 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican and 32 percent independent (in 2008, the Democratic advantage was 8 points). In the Florida poll, it’s very close: Obama is at 47 percent and Romney at 46 percent. Partisan breakdown is 36 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, and 32 percent independent (in 2008, Democratic advantage was three points). In Virginia, Obama is at 48 percent, with Romney close behind at 46 percent. Partisan breakdown is 32 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican, and 37 percent independent (in 2008, Democrats had a six-point advantage).