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Panic in Echo Park



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Heating into tonight’s debate, the Kos Kidz are going krazy over the latest polling data:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)

At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:
Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

Whoa! Those Sunday numbers aren’t pretty! Wonder if the Benghazi mess had anything to do with it? But wait — it gets uglier:

Swing state Obama 47, Romney 50

Blue state Obama 52, Romney 45

Red State Obama 40, Romney 56

Hey, every cloud has a silver lining — the old “skewed sample” (until recently, so beloved of conservatives, certain that the world was out to get them). And wouldn’t you just know it, a PPP poll taken for Kos and the SEIU, for crying out loud, tilts right:

.Finally, a demographic note—in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and 22 percent were liberal. Now this could point to a bad sample, or it could point to depressed enthusiasm among our base. Let’s really hope it’s the former.

Let’s not and say we did.



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